Interesting piece in the WSJ about expanding NAFTA to include the UK.


(using LMGTFY not to prank people, but to bypass the WSJ paywall)
http://lmgtfy.com/?q=Why+Britain+Belongs+in+a+New+Nafta

The three North American nations have fostered economic integration while respecting one another’s national independence, in contrast with the EU’s model for “shared sovereignty.” A new agreement with Britain should move beyond Nafta to an agenda that facilitates economic vitality in the 21st century.

That might be a great idea.

Democrats draft platform names Democrat leader an average of every page:
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/286319-dem-draft-platform-a-full-repudiation-of-trump

OK, so all the polling lately has been making me think:  How good are these polls?  This isn't an anti-Trump screed, just some analysis.  Feel free to review and critique my math if you like, it's been a bit since I did a stats class!
https://goo.gl/kRyzL7

So, I started with the RCP Average.  It shows Clinton +6.8.  I dropped off the bottom Bloomberg one because I just can't find out who did the poll, bringing the average to +6.2.


Next up, I went to the fivethirtyeight.com Pollster rankings.  He has a very detailed analysis of how he derives the bias rankings of the polls (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/).  Nice thing is, he computes a mean bias of each poll (like a D0.6 means that if the "D" actually has 40%, it would typically show 40.6% in the poll).  I used these numbers to compute an adjusted spread.  Overall, the adjusted spread average is Clinton +6.4 (+0.2 above the raw average).


I also took a swing at creating a composite MOE for these polls.  This is where you guys can back up my stats education...I took each MoE an halved it.  Most polls say they are accurate within the MoE 95% of the time, which means they should be reporting +/- 2 Standard Deviations.  So, and MoE of 4 gives me a standard deviation of 2.  So, I computed the square root of the average of the squares of the Standard Deviations (remember, stats class is a bit fuzzy for me, but this is what I recall the process being), and came out with an composite SD of 1.68, giving a composite MoE of +/-3.4


Overall, this puts the spread at Clinton +3.0 to Clinton +9.7 right now.


Again, just crunching numbers here guys.  Looking forward to corrections!

Either Donald Trump has a horrible memory or he’s a pathological liar. Either way, it’s pretty clear you can’t trust at thing he says. So what else is he lying about?

http://thefederalist.com/2016/03/24/10-things-trump-said-but-says-he-didnt/

He's going to halt Obama's mass deportations...is that what you Trumpkins thought he meant?

“President Obama has mass deported vast numbers of people -- the most ever, and it’s never reported. I think people are going to find that I have not only the best policies, but I will have the biggest heart of anybody,” Trump said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-06-25/trump-says-immigration-plan-wouldn-t-feature-mass-deportations

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/284706-carson-lets-put-second-amendment-on-the-table

Ben Carson on Thursday said lawmakers should reconsider how the Second Amendment works amid a raging debate over guns.


“Let’s put on the table — what is the reason for the Second Amendment?” he said on MSNBC. "And, is there a reason that we need to change those things right now?

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/284249-trump-campaign-poured-6m-into-trump-companies

GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump has cycled more than $6 million in campaign funds into his corporate products and services, according to an Associated Press review.


The news service's analysis of federal finance reports through the end of May pegged the amount at $6.2 million, about 10 percent of the real estate mogul's total campaign expenditures.

So, the guy who claimed to be self funding is instead funneling millions in donors money to his own businesses.  And he calls Hillary crooked.