PILOT SPIN
Spin Zone => Spin Zone => Topic started by: President-Elect Bob Noel on July 11, 2020, 05:54:24 PM
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How many people currently have the COVID-19 virus?
In Maskachusetts, the testing for COVID-19 (molecular) has been yielding positives less than 3% of the time since 12 June and less than 2% since 29 June.
This is targeted testing - people potentially with covid-19 symptoms, their close contacts, and healthcare workers, etc.
I would like to see random sampling of the rest of the population to get a handle on the number of people who are asymptomatic. However, it doesn't seem that the "leaders" want that. Kind of like few people want to count the number of people who have recovered.
But, given the testing that is happening (which is targeted), what is the likelihood that more than 3% general population is currently infected? (at least in Maskachusetts).
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I wonder why this isn't getting more press. Random sample in Indiana. Active infections dropped from 1.7 percent to 0.6 percent. But it's far more scary to publish the results of testing sick people.
https://www.youarecurrent.com/2020/06/18/state-announces-study-findings/
Preliminary data from the second phase of testing showed active infections in Indiana have decreased from 1.7 percent in Phase 1 to 0.6 percent in Phase 2. Likewise, antibody testing showed more Indiana residents have antibodies for the disease – meaning they previously had COVID-19 – in Phase 2. Only 1.1 percent of residents tested positive for antibodies in Phase 1; 1.5 percent tested positive for them in Phase 2.
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One way to measure the rate of infection is by measuring the Decreases/increases From day to day. That is what the infection rate metric is doing at https://covidactnow.org/?s=662109, measuring how many other people become infected for every person being infected. Greater than 1, it is spreading, less than 1, it is shrinking.
The rate over time absolutely shows that social activity is a major cause of spread.
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https://www.zerohedge.com/political/whitney-looks-sweden-was-right-after-all
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https://www.zerohedge.com/political/whitney-looks-sweden-was-right-after-all
Now, I realize that there’s some dispute about immunity, but there shouldn’t be. If you contract the virus, you either won’t get it again or you’ll get a much milder case. And if immunity doesn’t exist, then we’re crazy to waste our time trying to develop a vaccine, right?
What the science tells us is that immunity does exist and the reason the vast majority of people didn’t get the infection— is not because they locked themselves indoors and hid behind the sofa– but because they already have partial immunity either from their genetic makeup or from previous exposure to Sars-CoV-2 which was identified in 2002.
It’s worth repeating that the reason everyone was so scared about Covid originally was because it was hyped as a “novel virus”, completely new with no known cure or natural protection. That was a lie that was propagated by Fauci and his dissembling Vaccine Mafia, all of who are responsible for the vast destruction to the US economy, the unprecedented spike in unemployment, and the obliteration of tens of thousands of small businesses.
As the author points out, we should have known from the incident on the Diamond Princess (Cruise Liner) that immunity was far more widespread than previously thought. Readers might recall that only 17% of the people on board tested Covid-positive, “despite an ideal environment for mass spread, implying 83% of the people were somehow protected from the new virus.”
Think about that for a minute. All of the passengers were 60 years old or older, but only 17% caught the virus. Why?
Immunity, that’s why. What else could it be? Cross immunity, natural immunity, or SARS-CoV-2 T-cell immunity. Whatever you want to call it, it exists and it explains why the vast majority of people will not get the highly-contagious Covid no matter what they do.
It’s also worth pointing out that even according to the CDC’s own statistics, the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) is a mere 0.26% whereas “According to the latest immunological and serological studies, the overall lethality of Covid-19 (IFR) is about 0.1% and thus in the range of a strong seasonal influenza (flu).” (“Facts about Covid-19”, Swiss Policy Research)
So the death rate is somewhere in the neighborhood of 1 in every 500 (who contract the virus) to 1 in every 1,000. How can any rational person shut down a $21 trillion economy and order 340 million people into quarantine, based on the fact that 1 in every thousand people (mostly old and infirm) might die from an infection?? That was a act of pure, unalloyed Madness for which the American people will pay dearly for years to come. Once again, the US response was crafted by people who were promoting their own narrow political, social and economic agenda, not acting in the interests of the American people. We should expect more from our leaders than this.
So what does all of this say about the sharp spike in Covid positive cases in the south and the chances of a “second wave”?
There’s not going to be a second wave (The massive BLM protests in NY city has not produced any uptick in deaths, because NY has already achieved herd immunity. In contrast, Florida will undoubtedly experience more fatalities because it has not yet reached HIT or the Herd Immunity Threshold. Cases are increasing because younger- low-risk people are circulating more freely and because testing has increased by many orders of magnitude. At the same time, deaths continue to go down.
On Wednesday, US new cases rose to an eye-watering 62,000 in one day while deaths are down 75% from the April peak. This shouldn’t come as a surprise because the pattern has been the same as in countries around the world. The trajectory of infections was mapped out long ago by UK epidemiologist and statistician, William Farr. Take a look:
“Farr shows us that once peak infection has been reached then it will roughly follow the same symmetrical pattern on the downward slope. However, under testing and variations in testing regimes means we have no way of knowing when the peak of infections occurred. In this situation, we should use the data on deaths to predict the peak. There is a predicted time lag from infection to COVID deaths of approximately 21 to 28 days.
Once peak deaths have been reached we should be working on the assumption that the infection has already started falling in the same progressive steps. …
Farr, also illustrated that those who are the most ‘mortal die out’, and in a pandemic are those in most need of shielding….(So, Farr saw the wisdom of the Swedish approach a full 180 years ago!)
In the midst of a pandemic, it is easy to forget Farr’s Law, and think the number infected will just keep rising, it will not. Just as quick as measures were introduced to prevent the spread of infection we need to recognize the point at which to open up society and also the special measures due to ‘density’ that require special considerations. But most of all we must remember the message Farr left us: what goes up must come down.”
(“COVID-19: William Farr’s way out of the Pandemic”, The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine)
What this tells us is that the fatality rate is a more reliable barometer of what is taking place than the spike in new cases. And what the death rates signals is that the virus is on its last legs. We are not seeing the onset of a second wave, but the gradual ending of the first. Also, the fact that tens of thousands of young people are contracting Covid-19 without experiencing any pain or discomfort, confirms that immunity is widespread. This is a very positive development.
Here’s how Dr. John Thomas Littell, MD, who is President of the County Medical Society, and Chief of Staff at the Florida Hospital, summed it up in a letter to the editor of the Orlando Medical News, He said:
“Why did we as a society stop sending our children to schools and camps and sports activities? Why did we stop going to work and church and public parks and beaches? Why did we insist that healthy persons “stay at home” – rather than observing the evidence-based, medically prudent method of identifying those who were sick and isolating them from the rest of the population – advising the sick to “stay at home” and allowing the rest of society to function normally.”
(“Second wave? Not even close”, JB Handley, The Off-Guardian)