PILOT SPIN

Spin Zone => Spin Zone => Topic started by: President-Elect Bob Noel on October 07, 2020, 06:06:55 AM

Title: Cases vs Deaths
Post by: President-Elect Bob Noel on October 07, 2020, 06:06:55 AM
as macabre as this is (but it is halloween season...), it is interesting to look at covid-19 deaths vs cases over time (source is world-o-meter)

Title: Re: Cases vs Deaths
Post by: President-Elect Bob Noel on October 07, 2020, 06:07:55 AM
notice the second surge of cases is much larger than the first, but the number of deaths is much lower.
Title: Re: Cases vs Deaths
Post by: Anthony on October 07, 2020, 06:10:38 AM
Interesting.  Thanks.  And why do we still have all these draconian restrictions killing businesses?
Title: Re: Cases vs Deaths
Post by: Lucifer on October 07, 2020, 06:28:08 AM
Games are being played with words.

Notice how the leftist and media immediately pivoted away from deaths when they began plummeting.  Didn't fit the narrative.

 So they took "cases" and made it the go to catch word.   In general, in a medical setting, a "case" is someone who has been admitted and is under care for a medical problem.    However, in the Covid fear mongering world, a "case" is anyone who has tested positive for Covid.  The vast majority of these "cases" are asymptomatic and require no medical attention.   Even false positives were counted as cases, but my understanding is now some states have stopped that practice once it was uncovered.

 "Cases" sound scary.  The whole purpose of Covid is to stir panic and fear.   Look at the left's current reaction to their scamdemic as it's fading away.  They are demanding more restrictions.  Masking, lockdowns and other draconian measures are all about power and control.

 And notice the left's demand for more testing?   Why?   It's simple, more testing means more cases.
Title: Re: Cases vs Deaths
Post by: Anthony on October 07, 2020, 06:31:51 AM
Games are being played with words.

Notice how the leftist and media immediately pivoted away from deaths when they began plummeting.  Didn't fit the narrative.

 So they took "cases" and made it the go to catch word.   In general, in a medical setting, a "case" is someone who has been admitted and is under care for a medical problem.    However, in the Covid fear mongering world, a "case" is anyone who has tested positive for Covid.  The vast majority of these "cases" are asymptomatic and require no medical attention.   Even false positives were counted as cases, but my understanding is now some states have stopped that practice once it was uncovered.

 "Cases" sound scary.  The whole purpose of Covid is to stir panic and fear.   Look at the left's current reaction to their scamdemic as it's fading away.  They are demanding more restrictions.  Masking, lockdowns and other draconian measures are all about power and control.

 And notice the left's demand for more testing?   Why?   It's simple, more testing means more cases.

Exactly.  Cases are meaningless.  Also when someone dies WITH Covid, not because of it, it is counted as a Covid death.  But even with that, deaths are low per capita and per cases. 

The MEDIA and Dems (same thing) are all about the infection rate and number of cases.  Pure, emotional, untrue lies and misinformation to create fear and panic.  They have been very successful with the Propaganda. 
Title: Re: Cases vs Deaths
Post by: Lucifer on October 07, 2020, 06:35:21 AM
Exactly.  Cases are meaningless.  Also when someone dies WITH Covid, not because of it, it is counted as a Covid death.  But even with that, deaths are low per capita and per casese.

Unfortunately we may never know the true numbers because leftist and politicians have so polluted the data in order to manipulate it.   

We have been scammed on an order never witnessed before.  And, sadly, the result was and is a huge part of the population willing to succumb to the scam.

Pandora's Box has been opened, and we are going to feel the effects for generations to come.
Title: Re: Cases vs Deaths
Post by: Username on October 07, 2020, 06:57:12 AM
Unfortunately we may never know the true numbers because leftist and politicians have so polluted the data in order to manipulate it.   
And if some day some intrepid analyst wants to do an actual study with real data to find out the truth, any result that conflicts with the current narrative will be destroyed, deleted, and the analyst will be shamed, shunned, destroyed, and deleted because, after all, it's settled science.  Thou shalt not blaspheme the Party.
Title: Re: Cases vs Deaths
Post by: Anthony on October 07, 2020, 07:08:13 AM
And if some day some intrepid analyst wants to do an actual study with real data to find out the truth, any result that conflicts with the current narrative will be destroyed, deleted, and the analyst will be shamed, shunned, destroyed, and deleted because, after all, it's settled science.  Thou shalt not blaspheme the Party.

This Virus is the Man Made Climate Change of Pandemics.  A total scam.
Title: Re: Cases vs Deaths
Post by: nddons on October 07, 2020, 07:14:34 AM
Unfortunately we may never know the true numbers because leftist and politicians have so polluted the data in order to manipulate it.   

We have been scammed on an order never witnessed before.  And, sadly, the result was and is a huge part of the population willing to succumb to the scam.

Pandora's Box has been opened, and we are going to feel the effects for generations to come.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201007/ff34c0948289d83fa143db180453da07.jpg)
Title: Re: Cases vs Deaths
Post by: Steingar on October 07, 2020, 10:58:37 AM
What you really have to look at is cases vs hospitalizations.
Title: Re: Cases vs Deaths
Post by: Lucifer on October 07, 2020, 11:17:23 AM
Jane Fonda Calls Covid-19 “God’s Gift to the Left” — Smirks and Giggles

 
“I just think that COVID is God’s gift to the Left,” Fonda said. “That’s a terrible thing to say. I think it was a very difficult thing to send down to us, but it has ripped the band-aid off who Trump is and what he stands for and what is being done to average people and working people in this country.”

 

She described the coronavirus pandemic as an “existential crossroads” for humanity to address issues like climate change. “What a great gift, what a tremendous opportunity, we are so lucky, we have to use it with every ounce of intelligence and courage and wherewithal we have,” she added.

Title: Re: Cases vs Deaths
Post by: Rush on October 07, 2020, 11:30:31 AM
Gift? Opportunity? LUCKY?  Fucking bitch. People are DYING from it, losing their livelihood from the shutdown. FUCK HER.
Title: Re: Cases vs Deaths
Post by: Lucifer on October 07, 2020, 11:50:22 AM
What you really have to look at is cases vs hospitalizations.

The data is too flawed.

 In most states "hospitalizations" are convoluted.   If someone falls off a ladder, and requires hospitalization, they are covid tested on admittance.  If they test positive and are asymptomatic, they are now counted as a covid hospitalization.   Same goes for anyone who checks in for heart problems, cancer treatment, etc.

 The actual true number of people being hospitalized for covid alone is estimated to be less than 10% of the total number.

 A couple of months ago in Houston the county executive was demanding the governor allow her to lock down Harris County because, as she put it, the hospitals were being "over run" with covid.   The four CEO's of the largest hospitals in Houston went on TV and asked where she was getting this information from, as their information showed they were running at normal capacity.   In fact Texas runs a website that tracks covid and specifically regional hospitals, and even that site refuted her claims.
Title: Re: Cases vs Deaths
Post by: nddons on October 07, 2020, 12:55:14 PM
Gift? Opportunity? LUCKY?  Fucking bitch. People are DYING from it, losing their livelihood from the shutdown. FUCK HER.
What she said!
Title: Re: Cases vs Deaths
Post by: Ron22 on October 07, 2020, 01:00:18 PM
What you really have to look at is cases vs hospitalizations.

Hospitalization is what I look at also.  I really don't care about people that get a mild case and are fine. 
Title: Re: Cases vs Deaths
Post by: President-Elect Bob Noel on October 07, 2020, 01:10:41 PM
What you really have to look at is cases vs hospitalizations.

really? 

You claim that I "have to"?

you are truly just like your Dad.

Title: Re: Cases vs Deaths
Post by: nddons on October 07, 2020, 01:32:58 PM
I did a little analysis comparing the state of Wisconsin to Ireland. We both have a drinking culture, we both have a couple large cities (Milwaukee 595,000, Dublin 553,000), and we both have a large rural population.

Tell me what you see:

Population:
Wisconsin:  5,850,000
Ireland:  4,950,000

Covid cases:
Wisconsin:  141,780 (2.4% of population)
Ireland:  38,549 (0.8% of population)

Covid deaths:
Wisconsin:  1,393
-percent of pop:  0.02%
-percent of cases:  0.98%

Ireland:  1,810
-percent of pop:  0.03%
-percent of cases:  4.7%

So what does this tell you?  If the number of deaths as a percentage of population is virtually identical, but the number of cases is WILDLY different, either Wisconsinites are wildly irresponsible but get better healthcare, OR the number of cases are largely bullshit.

I’m going with the later.

Note that the number of cases is the metric being used for last month’s mask order and yesterday’s shutdown order (which ends on 11/6). 
Title: Re: Cases vs Deaths
Post by: President-Elect Bob Noel on October 07, 2020, 01:41:25 PM
The data is too flawed.

 In most states "hospitalizations" are convoluted.   If someone falls off a ladder, and requires hospitalization, they are covid tested on admittance.  If they test positive and are asymptomatic, they are now counted as a covid hospitalization.   Same goes for anyone who checks in for heart problems, cancer treatment, etc.

 The actual true number of people being hospitalized for covid alone is estimated to be less than 10% of the total number.

 A couple of months ago in Houston the county executive was demanding the governor allow her to lock down Harris County because, as she put it, the hospitals were being "over run" with covid.   The four CEO's of the largest hospitals in Houston went on TV and asked where she was getting this information from, as their information showed they were running at normal capacity.   In fact Texas runs a website that tracks covid and specifically regional hospitals, and even that site refuted her claims.

Occasionally the type of data that gets reported to the CDC gets revised.  You are most likely to hear about that when the changes are rapid and increase the number of fields.

The two sources I use are the CDC and Mass.gov.... ok ok I also use world-o-meter for visualization, but don't treat them as authoritative.

Is maskachusetts, the number of covid-19 cases hospitalized for covid-19 alone is a bit higher than 10%, more like 50% to 60% (according to gov baker).  Unfortuntately that level of detail is not reported.  Also, over 65% of the maskachusetts covid-19-related deaths were people in long term care facilities.  According to the CDC data (2009), maskachusetts has just under 50,000 bed.  Sect Sudder has publically stated that prior to covid-19, each month 1100 to 1700 were passing away in long-term faciltiies.  This number is consistent with the data the CDC has for mortality data (all causes) for maskachusetts for the previous 21 years.

These two types of numbers (hospitalizations and deaths in long-term care) should raise questions regarding what the data really means.

Title: Re: Cases vs Deaths
Post by: President-Elect Bob Noel on October 07, 2020, 01:42:58 PM
I did a little analysis comparing the state of Wisconsin to Ireland. We both have a drinking culture, we both have a couple large cities (Milwaukee 595,000, Dublin 553,000), and we both have a large rural population.

Tell me what you see:

Population:
Wisconsin:  5,850,000
Ireland:  4,950,000

Covid cases:
Wisconsin:  141,780 (2.4% of population)
Ireland:  38,549 (0.8% of population)

Covid deaths:
Wisconsin:  1,393
-percent of pop:  0.02%
-percent of cases:  0.98%

Ireland:  1,810
-percent of pop:  0.03%
-percent of cases:  4.7%

So what does this tell you?  If the number of deaths as a percentage of population is virtually identical, but the number of cases is WILDLY different, either Wisconsinites are wildly irresponsible but get better healthcare, OR the number of cases are largely bullshit.

I’m going with the later.

Note that the number of cases is the metric being used for last month’s mask order and yesterday’s shutdown order (which ends on 11/6).

or there was insufficient testing to identify all the non-serious cases of covid-19.

or there was deliberate attempt to spread covid-19 in the USA and no one targetted Ireland (of course, why would someone target Wisconsin?)
Title: Re: Cases vs Deaths
Post by: Little Joe on October 07, 2020, 01:48:28 PM
really? 

You claim that I "have to"?

you are truly just like your Dad.
Actually, Steingar has a point.  Cases vs Hospitalizations is an important statistic.
I used to say you have to look at deaths, but as we get better at saving lives, that statistic is less indicative of the danger of the virus.  And it is still a dangerous virus.  I for one would prefer not to catch it.
Title: Re: Cases vs Deaths
Post by: President-Elect Bob Noel on October 07, 2020, 02:07:17 PM
Actually, Steingar has a point.  Cases vs Hospitalizations is an important statistic.
I used to say you have to look at deaths, but as we get better at saving lives, that statistic is less indicative of the danger of the virus.  And it is still a dangerous virus.  I for one would prefer not to catch it.

so many things influence hospitalization numbers:  simple things like cause of hospitalization, hospitalization capacity, length of stay (varies across hospitals and across regions and across payer).

In maskachusetts hospitalizations were so low that the hospital business got severly schwhacked.  Once people were "allowed" to see their medical professions all the pent up demand created a bow wave.  These two things will completely dominate the data set.


Covid is indeed a dangerous virus.  So is influenza, so is pneumonia (ok, so those last two are actual caused by a suite of things), so is shingles.

I don't want to catch any of these.

I wish people wouldn't *ahem* overstate the seriousness of covid-19, especially when they simultaneously ignore the seriousness of other pathogens.