PILOT SPIN
Spin Zone => Spin Zone => Topic started by: EppyGA - White Christian Domestic Terrorist on February 08, 2021, 05:48:06 PM
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Been watching and the market, particularly the NASDAQ has been headed to new heights. NASDAQ I understand to some extent, with COVID still in control the tech big boys are still doing wonderfully.
What do you think is driving this?
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the fake in the whitehouse must be really really good for the economy, eh?
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more seriously, with vaccinations happening, there are some positive indications wrt businesses increasing capacity.
The bill for all the "stimulus" will come back to haunt us later...
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My financial advisor told me in October that this would happen if Dems won.
Massive spending will make people feel good for about a year.
But then the bills will come due.
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My guess is it’s asset inflation due to low interest rates. Affects stocks and real estate. Likely to be followed by inflation across the board (already underway.) Not just my own prognostication:
Inflation Is on the Way for 2021 – Here’s What That Means for You (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inflation-way-2021-means-170015175.html)
Federal Reserve says inflation should rise dramatically (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/federal-reserve-inflation-wages-interest-policy-changes/)
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Let’s see, S&P 500 composite price-to-book nearing record level:
https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-price-to-book (https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-price-to-book)
Ditto for price-to-sales ratio:
https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-price-to-sales (https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-price-to-sales)
Dividend yields approaching record low since records began in 1871:
https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-dividend-yield (https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-dividend-yield)
Lastly, price-to-earnings has shot up nearing record highs (government shut downs skew these numbers, though, so not as telling as, say, price-to-book or price-to-sales):
https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio (https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio)
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What do you think is driving this?
Stimulus. As long as Earpiece Joe keeps promising to hand out more and more money, prices will continue to run up.
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The tech sector getting richer and richer and that part of the public which stupidly thinks the Dems winning is a good thing for the economy. Not me. Our financial advisor had to talk me off the ledge from wanting to cash out our whole portfolio and putting it into Bitcoin. If I didn’t think the Tyrants now in charge will soon outlaw it, tax it, regulate it, or confiscate it, I might actually be serious. It’s not going to stay the free Wild West of currencies much longer. Anonymously owned wealth? How long will the Tyrants allow that? Money the government can’t take in civil asset forfeiture if you don’t give them the private key? Transactions no longer tracked by VISA and MasterCard and the big banks? That’s too much privacy and economic power in the hands of the common people.
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Big correction coming 3rd quarter. Watch out. Housing market too, unfortunately.
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Big correction coming 3rd quarter. Watch out. Housing market too, unfortunately.
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All manner of things will be sold as well, RVs, boats, planes, motorcycles, all the stuff everyone has been gorging on during the scamdemic. Wise ones will find good deals...
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We're seeing housing markets all across the country going nuts. People are dumping dumps and getting top prices for them. Demand is so hot that new buyers are bidding up prices and making offers without having an inspection. These new buyers are tempted by low mortgage rates and the fear of rates going up in the near future. They are buying the most they can afford on two incomes.
The 2008 crash was caused by a crash of the mortgage industry. The 2022 crash will be caused by the crash of the housing industry. The trillions in debt will cause interest rates to skyrocket. When rates go up, housing prices go down. As the scamdemic continues, more people will lose jobs and they can no longer afford their mortgage. As their houses deteriorate they will face tens of thousands in maintenance (that they didn't find because they didn't get an inspection). Houses will be abandoned or foreclosed on. All this will cause a housing crash, followed by the loan industry crash. Hyper inflation, 20% interest rates, no home buyers, no jobs. Welcome to the democrat utopia.
I got my wife 20 Trillion dollar Zimbabwe notes for Valentine's Day. I thought she'd enjoy having trillions of dollars to spend. Just like the government. And just like everyone in the US when the dollar becomes worthless.
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We're seeing housing markets all across the country going nuts. People are dumping dumps and getting top prices for them. Demand is so hot that new buyers are bidding up prices and making offers without having an inspection. These new buyers are tempted by low mortgage rates and the fear of rates going up in the near future. They are buying the most they can afford on two incomes.
The 2008 crash was caused by a crash of the mortgage industry. The 2022 crash will be caused by the crash of the housing industry. The trillions in debt will cause interest rates to skyrocket. When rates go up, housing prices go down. As the scamdemic continues, more people will lose jobs and they can no longer afford their mortgage. As their houses deteriorate they will face tens of thousands in maintenance (that they didn't find because they didn't get an inspection). Houses will be abandoned or foreclosed on. All this will cause a housing crash, followed by the loan industry crash. Hyper inflation, 20% interest rates, no home buyers, no jobs. Welcome to the democrat utopia.
I got my wife 20 Trillion dollar Zimbabwe notes for Valentine's Day. I thought she'd enjoy having trillions of dollars to spend. Just like the government. And just like everyone in the US when the dollar becomes worthless.
Many of those foreclosed homes will be bought up by the government, and turned into section 8 housing.
The march continues.
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We're seeing housing markets all across the country going nuts. People are dumping dumps and getting top prices for them. Demand is so hot that new buyers are bidding up prices and making offers without having an inspection. These new buyers are tempted by low mortgage rates and the fear of rates going up in the near future. They are buying the most they can afford on two incomes.
The 2008 crash was caused by a crash of the mortgage industry. The 2022 crash will be caused by the crash of the housing industry. The trillions in debt will cause interest rates to skyrocket. When rates go up, housing prices go down. As the scamdemic continues, more people will lose jobs and they can no longer afford their mortgage. As their houses deteriorate they will face tens of thousands in maintenance (that they didn't find because they didn't get an inspection). Houses will be abandoned or foreclosed on. All this will cause a housing crash, followed by the loan industry crash. Hyper inflation, 20% interest rates, no home buyers, no jobs. Welcome to the democrat utopia.
I got my wife 20 Trillion dollar Zimbabwe notes for Valentine's Day. I thought she'd enjoy having trillions of dollars to spend. Just like the government. And just like everyone in the US when the dollar becomes worthless.
My daughter and son in law just “won” their bid on a house that got 15 offers the first day on the market and offers were still coming in after theirs was accepted. The agent said she gets an average of 40 offers for houses in that neighborhood. It’s a 3 BR 2 1/2 bath ordinary house on a tiny postage stamp lot in a crowded suburb going for nearly half a million dollars.
I have to bite my tongue but they have little choice. It’s either that or he will have to commute 90 minutes. At least the interest rates are low.
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We're seeing housing markets all across the country going nuts. People are dumping dumps and getting top prices for them. Demand is so hot that new buyers are bidding up prices and making offers without having an inspection. These new buyers are tempted by low mortgage rates and the fear of rates going up in the near future. They are buying the most they can afford on two incomes.
Neighbor two houses down is a real estate agent, she says houses in our area are selling in 44hrs on average from time of listing. Our next door neighbors moved in late summer. He's a college professor at a small regional school, she's a part time psychological therapist, they have five kids, with a sixth on the way. They are early 30's and the home was $450k. I really don't know how they're doing it.
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My financial advisor told me in October that this would happen if Dems won.
Massive spending will make people feel good for about a year.
But then the bills will come due.
Make hay while the sun shines. Collect the gains now, sell around Oct.
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All manner of things will be sold as well, RVs, boats, planes, motorcycles, all the stuff everyone has been gorging on during the scamdemic. Wise ones will find good deals...
Yep, biding my time to move up (finally.)
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Hyper inflation, 20% interest rates, no home buyers, no jobs. Welcome to the democrat utopia.
Second Coming of Jimmy Carter, except this will be the Great Reset the coms want.
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Neighbor two houses down is a real estate agent, she says houses in our area are selling in 44hrs on average from time of listing. Our next door neighbors moved in late summer. He's a college professor at a small regional school, she's a part time psychological therapist, they have five kids, with a sixth on the way. They are early 30's and the home was $450k. I really don't know how they're doing it.
I don’t know what my daughter and SIL settled on but it was listed for $450k but who knows how high the bids went. One day on the market and the most sickening thing of all is you know all these incoming residents are refugees from NYC and other Democrat shitholes and they’re going to vote Dem in NC and ruin that state too.
He’s an engineer and my daughter is a nurse but only works part time. Even so daycare for two kids 3 days a week pretty much negates her income. I just hope they know what they’re doing.
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the most sickening thing of all is you know all these incoming residents are refugees from NYC and other Democrat shitholes and they’re going to vote Dem in NC and ruin that state too.
A realtor friend of mine said most of the New Yorkers buying up all the properties around here are Republicans trying to escape from New York.
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Our neighbors sold a couple of months ago, didn't go in 44 hours but went pretty fast. They didn't get asking price because the idiot agent listed above what it could appraise for.
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I don’t know what my daughter and SIL settled on but it was listed for $450k but who knows how high the bids went. One day on the market and the most sickening thing of all is you know all these incoming residents are refugees from NYC and other Democrat shitholes and they’re going to vote Dem in NC and ruin that state too.
He’s an engineer and my daughter is a nurse but only works part time. Even so daycare for two kids 3 days a week pretty much negates her income. I just hope they know what they’re doing.
It seems a lot of people we know bought the most house the bank would approve on the loan. Our first house was about 40% of what the bank approved, we had more interests other than paying a big honking mortgage. Yes, we didn't have the fancy house with nice curb appeal, but we had money for flying and hobbies, and a cushion in the event one of us lost a job.
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A realtor friend of mine said most of the New Yorkers buying up all the properties around here are Republicans trying to escape from New York.
Really? The realtor asks them what their politics are? That’s good news.
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It seems a lot of people we know bought the most house the bank would approve on the loan. Our first house was about 40% of what the bank approved, we had more interests other than paying a big honking mortgage. Yes, we didn't have the fancy house with nice curb appeal, but we had money for flying and hobbies, and a cushion in the event one of us lost a job.
Exactly. When we got married, my wife and I agreed to live on only one of our salaries and bank the other. We have a modest house (and a modest aircraft), live well within our means, and have a good rainy day fund. This philosophy has carried us over the lean times and will provide a good retirement. Our house is paid off, our aircraft is paid off, we have no debt, and are pretty happy. Sure, we could have had the big fancy house and all the bling, but that's just not us.
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Exactly. When we got married, my wife and I agreed to live on only one of our salaries and bank the other. We have a modest house (and a modest aircraft), live well within our means, and have a good rainy day fund. This philosophy has carried us over the lean times and will provide a good retirement. Our house is paid off, our aircraft is paid off, we have no debt, and are pretty happy. Sure, we could have had the big fancy house and all the bling, but that's just not us.
The Federal government (Democrats) will thank you for all your hard work and savings as they raid your IRA. After all, it’s not fair you should have a comfortable retirement when so many have failed to plan for theirs.
On second thought, no they won’t thank you. They’ll despise you for the very work ethic that got you your nest egg.
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Really? The realtor asks them what their politics are? That’s good news.
I doubt she asks them outright, but it is usually pretty easy to figure out. Bumper stickers and general conversations can tell a lot.
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Add commodity inflation to the asset inflation now happening:
https://www.fidelity.com/news/article/top-news/202102161518RTRSNEWSCOMBINED_KBN2AG2H0-OUSBS_1 (https://www.fidelity.com/news/article/top-news/202102161518RTRSNEWSCOMBINED_KBN2AG2H0-OUSBS_1)
Exclusive: Kraft Heinz, Conagra may raise some product prices as grains, edible oil costs surge
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Kraft Heinz Co ( KHC ) and Conagra Brands Inc ( CAG ) said they may choose to raise prices this year on some products that use wheat, sugar and other commodities that are becoming increasingly expensive due to high demand.
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"We have inflation, we are seeing inflation, we are concerned about inflation. We have to mitigate that inflation, or at least part of it, with hedges and with efficiencies in the factories," Kraft Heinz ( KHC ) Chief Executive Miguel Patricio told Reuters in a recent interview. "Will we have price increases in food this year? Maybe in some categories that are very exposed to specific commodities."
"Where we are seeing (inflation) is in grains and everything related to grains ... It's across the board. Sugar has big inflation; mac & cheese because it has wheat; mayo because it has oil; salad dressing because it has oil; all sweet products like desserts," Patricio said.
Kraft Heinz ( KHC ) - which makes Jell-O, Kraft Macaroni & Cheese and a slew of Heinz mayonnaise products and salad dressings - said it did not increase prices in the most recent quarter, but did cut down on promotions and discounts.
Other major food companies, including Lipton tea and Hellmann's mayonnaise maker Unilever, have also signaled higher prices due to global commodity inflation.
"We've got some inflationary pressures coming forward. And we do expect mid-to-high single-digit commodity inflation in the first half. So we have to be at the top of our game in pricing going forward," Unilever Chief Financial Officer Graeme Pitkethly said on a recent earnings call.
The U.S. Federal Reserve has downplayed any imminent inflation risk. It does not regard one-time price hikes in an industry or across a group of goods as inflation, as opposed to sustained price increases across the broader economy.
"Households have been buying more groceries. You are going to see price pressures," Kansas City Fed President Esther George said on Tuesday in a presentation to a real estate symposium. "Airlines, dining out, where activity remains depressed, is offsetting" the price pressure, she added. "In the near term I don't see we are going to have an inflation problem."
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Big correction coming 3rd quarter. Watch out. Housing market too, unfortunately.
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(Necroposting!)
You were off by about 3 months on the stock market and housing is finally turning down. The inflation warnings I posted earlier in this thread (Feb. last year) have come to pass with a vengeance.
Market got overconfident this last week and really took a dive today. Ouch.
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(Necroposting!)
You were off by about 3 months on the stock market and housing is finally turning down. The inflation warnings I posted earlier in this thread (Feb. last year) have come to pass with a vengeance.
Market got overconfident this last week and really took a dive today. Ouch.
I'm no stock analyst but the fundamentals mid and maybe long term suck. I do think it will get ugly. We'll see.
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I'm sure it's only about the rail strike that is looming.
It'll be all sunshine, unicorns, and rainbows when the rail strike is averted.
I'm sure of it...
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I'm sure it's only about the rail strike that is looming.
It'll be all sunshine, unicorns, and rainbows when the rail strike is averted.
I'm sure of it...
The news is finally mentioning the strike, and everything Biden is doing to avert it. As if.
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The news is finally mentioning the strike, and everything Biden is doing to avert it. As if.
If there was one person who could intervene and make a deal, it would have been DJT.
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The news is finally mentioning the strike, and everything Biden is doing to avert it. As if.
short article, eh?
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short article, eh?
It’s easy when they only look at everything President Trump did and pretend it was the senile imposter.
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If there was one person who could intervene and make a deal, it would have been DJT.
We have an administration of academics, pseudo intellectuals, and TALKERS, not DOERS. All Communist of course. Trump is a doer.
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short article, eh?
Very short. (I’m sure Biden himself is doing nothing whatsoever.) His Presidential Emergency Board was convened at the request of other parties, certainly wasn’t his administration’s initiative, and all it did was suggest a wage increase somewhere between what the unions wanted and what the railroads are willing to pay which amounts to doing nothing at all because, duh, that’s the point of negotiations, which were already underway - to come up with a middle ground compromise.
All it accomplished was to fix a point Congress can use later to force the contract, and allow the Biden administration and its whore media to tell the public it is doing something. It’s actually doing nothing other than wag its finger at everyone saying “Don’t y’all fuck up the economy (even more) right before the midterms!”