PILOT SPIN

Spin Zone => Spin Zone => Topic started by: President-Elect Bob Noel on March 20, 2020, 01:28:43 PM

Title: Imagine
Post by: President-Elect Bob Noel on March 20, 2020, 01:28:43 PM
Imagine how the DOW would have looked if the coronavirus panic occurred prior to Jan 2017.  A ~33% dive from ~19800 would have put the market at about 13300...

The current DOW doesn't look so bad from that perspective...does it?
Title: Re: Imagine
Post by: Anthony on March 20, 2020, 01:56:04 PM
The problem is that people see their funds drop in value by 30% and freak out.  They count that money as cash and "theirs" even though it is in stocks.  Those high 401K values have driven a lot of consumer confidence too.

If we can stop this madness in the next week or so, then values will come back by the election MAYBE. 
Title: Re: Imagine
Post by: Rush on March 20, 2020, 02:38:58 PM
It’s going to take longer than that. We’ve basically been set back a year or two and will never catch up to where we would have been had this not happened. If the consequence is the Dems regain power and implement socialism to “save” us, then it’s worse; you can forget ever prospering again, unless you’re a rich elite politician or celebrity on the east or west coast.
Title: Re: Imagine
Post by: Anthony on March 20, 2020, 02:45:06 PM
It’s going to take longer than that. We’ve basically been set back a year or two and will never catch up to where we would have been had this not happened. If the consequence is the Dems regain power and implement socialism to “save” us, then it’s worse; you can forget ever prospering again, unless you’re a rich elite politician or celebrity on the east or west coast.

Things that go down fast for reasons outside the economic fundamentals CAN come back quickly.  Will they?  Dunno.
Title: Re: Imagine
Post by: President-Elect Bob Noel on March 20, 2020, 02:55:33 PM
Things that go down fast for reasons outside the economic fundamentals CAN come back quickly.  Will they?  Dunno.

Perhaps not as quickly.  I'm no stock market wizard, but I figure that the market just won't rebound anywhere near as fast as is cratered.

And it might not make it all the way back to near 20,000.

I'm sure if it doesn't, President Trump will be blamed.  And if it tops 20,000, President Trump will still be criticized for some imagined failing.  That much I'm absolutely positive about.
Title: Re: Imagine
Post by: Rush on March 20, 2020, 10:22:23 PM
Perhaps not as quickly.  I'm no stock market wizard, but I figure that the market just won't rebound anywhere near as fast as is cratered.

And it might not make it all the way back to near 20,000.

I'm sure if it doesn't, President Trump will be blamed.  And if it tops 20,000, President Trump will still be criticized for some imagined failing.  That much I'm absolutely positive about.

Absolutely correct. Bill Maher must be thrilled, his wish coming true, Americans suffering and losing jobs just so there’s a chance we lose Trump.
Title: Re: Imagine
Post by: Anthony on March 21, 2020, 06:14:14 AM
Perhaps not as quickly.  I'm no stock market wizard, but I figure that the market just won't rebound anywhere near as fast as is cratered.

And it might not make it all the way back to near 20,000.

I'm sure if it doesn't, President Trump will be blamed.  And if it tops 20,000, President Trump will still be criticized for some imagined failing.  That much I'm absolutely positive about.

I would agree with the rebound not being as fast as the crash, but as soon as people start seeing gains again on a regular basis, and normalcy returns to society and markets, confidence will again be bolstered.  Fear and greed rule humans and as soon as we turn the corner the greed gene will kick in.  Yes, there will be a lag as people really want to see that corner turned, and upward pressure on markets. 

I am not stock market wizard either, so I could be totally wrong.  :)
Title: Re: Imagine
Post by: Little Joe on March 21, 2020, 08:45:24 AM
Perhaps not as quickly.  I'm no stock market wizard, but I figure that the market just won't rebound anywhere near as fast as is cratered.

And it might not make it all the way back to near 20,000.

I'm sure if it doesn't, President Trump will be blamed.  And if it tops 20,000, President Trump will still be criticized for some imagined failing.  That much I'm absolutely positive about.
I think you meant to say 30,000.

And once people realize how over-hyped this was, I think the rebound will make people's head spin.  That is why I am not selling now.  I don't want to miss the bounce and get back in late.
Title: Re: Imagine
Post by: Rush on March 21, 2020, 09:29:01 AM
I think you meant to say 30,000.

And once people realize how over-hyped this was, I think the rebound will make people's head spin.  That is why I am not selling now.  I don't want to miss the bounce and get back in late.

Oh good lord no. Only idiots sell right now. (No offense if any present company applies.) Or people who must sell due to circumstances. On the other hand maybe I’m the idiot if this thing keeps spiraling down and totally destroys us.

The question is how far down will it go before you start buying like crazy.  I feel like staying in a holding pattern right now, waiting for the crisis to peak, then as soon as there’s an upswing that looks real, dive in.

I have faith it’s not going to come back so fast we miss the gain.

This is pure torture for me, I am EXTREMELY risk averse. I was trying to convince my husband and our manager to put everything into one of those never goes down but doesn’t rise much instruments a couple months ago and they laughed me silent, “And miss this great Trump economy? Are you nuts?”

And yes, my poor husband is getting a fuck ton of I told you so right now.

But we need to have faith it will come back. Sit tight, don’t panic, maybe take up drinking to handle the stress. Texas is allowing alcohol carry out.
Title: Re: Imagine
Post by: President-Elect Bob Noel on March 21, 2020, 10:11:51 AM
I think you meant to say 30,000.


yup

tpoys are a terrible thing