PILOT SPIN
Spin Zone => Spin Zone => Topic started by: nddons on March 16, 2016, 09:00:08 PM
-
A local news guy did an analysis of electoral votes, and with current polling, he predicts Trump getting eviscerated by Clinton with Clinton winning the electoral college 338 to Trump's 200.
What's his path for an electoral college victory, Trump fans?
http://www.newstalk1130.com/onair/common-sense-central-37717/donald-beware-the-ides-of-march-14497112/
To put it mildly, Donald Trump is about as popular among general election voters as Julius Caesar was among Senators. And this is before the media starts knifing him in the back instead of letting him dominate their front pages.
According to the RealClearPolitics average, Clinton defeats Trump in a general election matchup by a comfortable 47% to 41% margin. More significantly, she has been trending up and Trump has been trending downward since the end of January.
Clinton leads Trump in 9 of the last 10 general election polls conducted, including a 51% to 38% thrashing in the most recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey and a 50% to 41% drubbing in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll.
Trump only leads Clinton in two of the 12 polls conducted this year, and in both his leads are either within or very near the polls’ margins of error.
In the 48 polls conducted since Trump entered the race, he leads in just five (interestingly, three of them are FOX News polls), and by a maximum of five points. The last time he led by five? November. The last time he led at all? February 15th.
On March 15th, the same poll that showed Rubio dominating Clinton in Pennsylvania shows Clinton dominating Trump in Pennsylvania 43% to 35%.
In the latest NBC News/Washington Post poll in Ohio, Clinton leads Trump 48% to 42% and 46% to 42% in the RealClearPolitics average. The most recent poll has Clinton up 49% to 41% in Florida and up 46% to 43% in the RealClearPolitics average.
She leads in North Carolina, Virginia, Michigan, Wisconsin, New York, New Jersey, and pretty much every state that Trump claims he can carry with his coalition of working class voters.
He won’t win any of them.
Read more: http://www.newstalk1130.com/onair/common-sense-central-37717/donald-beware-the-ides-of-march-14497112/#ixzz4384n9WmW
-
A local news guy huh ::)
You don't believe that Trump would put Florida and Ohio in play as well as New York and New Jersey? Interesting
-
All the Trump haters need not worry, the Republican establishment and the "Conservatives" will team up and concoct some way to keep him off the ballot. The "Conservatives" are meeting today to talk about how they can submarine Trump.
Here in the ATL we have a battle going on the airwaves between Herman Cain and Eric Erickson. Cain has the 9:00 - 12:00 slot on WSB and Erickson has the 5:00 - 7:00 slot where he get to talk between traffic reports. Erickson is flat out anti Trump, pro Cruz and is very ope about it. Herman was contacted by Trump before Trump entered the race and asked about what it would be like. Herman tells his listeners that he doesn't care who you vote, just do your homework. Eric speaks openly about stopping Trump at all costs. Last week Erickson even managed to attack Cain during his show by using false allegations. It was rather pathetic.
If we are at a point, in this country, where subverting the peoples will is the way of the future then the country is nearer the end than I first believed. The revolution will not be far away.
-
A local news guy huh ::)
You don't believe that Trump would put Florida and Ohio in play as well as New York and New Jersey? Interesting
Hey, the local news guy told them what he wanted to hear, good enough, right?
As for electoral college, the dems have been floating this idea that the same states that went Obama will automatically go Clinton. Very flawed logic in this election year, but as with most lies, just keep repeating it over and over until it becomes the truth.
Bottom line, in November the electoral map will look totally different from the past presidential elections. And the dems, much less the local news guys, have a crystal ball that gives them the edge.
-
So, who has lost the popular 51-38 and won the electoral college?
-
I've said this all along. Trump won't do well in the general. He is now energizing the angry white guy electorate, but when it comes to the general populace, he is no where near as popular. In fact they will pick Hillary, who is also very unpopular, but a little less so than Trump.
-
A local news guy huh ::)
You don't believe that Trump would put Florida and Ohio in play as well as New York and New Jersey? Interesting
Yea. Dan O'Donnell from WISN. Why is that a question?
As for New York, no, I don't their knots in play. The latest Siena poll (per RCP) shows Clinton 57 Trump 34, for a +23 for Clinton.
I don't see a Trump v Clinton poll for NJ, but I have no reason to believe it would be any different.
What tea leaves are you reading?
Shit in one hand, a wish in the other. Which one will fill up first?
-
All the Trump haters need not worry, the Republican establishment and the "Conservatives" will team up and concoct some way to keep him off the ballot. The "Conservatives" are meeting today to talk about how they can submarine Trump.
Here in the ATL we have a battle going on the airwaves between Herman Cain and Eric Erickson. Cain has the 9:00 - 12:00 slot on WSB and Erickson has the 5:00 - 7:00 slot where he get to talk between traffic reports. Erickson is flat out anti Trump, pro Cruz and is very ope about it. Herman was contacted by Trump before Trump entered the race and asked about what it would be like. Herman tells his listeners that he doesn't care who you vote, just do your homework. Eric speaks openly about stopping Trump at all costs. Last week Erickson even managed to attack Cain during his show by using false allegations. It was rather pathetic.
If we are at a point, in this country, where subverting the peoples will is the way of the future then the country is nearer the end than I first believed. The revolution will not be far away.
No one would support the nomination going to anyone other than Trump or Cruz. No one. Despite Rush's worries to the contrary, I don't think the GOP is that stupid. They're stupid fuckers, but not suicidal stupid. But I could be wrong.
-
Hey, the local news guy told them what he wanted to hear, good enough, right?
As for electoral college, the dems have been floating this idea that the same states that went Obama will automatically go Clinton. Very flawed logic in this election year, but as with most lies, just keep repeating it over and over until it becomes the truth.
Bottom line, in November the electoral map will look totally different from the past presidential elections. And the dems, much less the local news guys, have a crystal ball that gives them the edge.
Genius, have you done an analysis of the electoral college? Has anyone analyzed the electoral college and how Trump can win. If so, whip it out. If not, then you suffer from the same delusion that liberals have when confronted with facts: kill the messenger.
So come on, bring it on. What have you seen where Trump wins the electoral college?
-
I've said this all along. Trump won't do well in the general. He is now energizing the angry white guy electorate, but when it comes to the general populace, he is no where near as popular. In fact they will pick Hillary, who is also very unpopular, but a little less so than Trump.
SILENCE! Or Trump will sue you for spreading LIES! And he'll forever call you "Lyin' Dav8or."
-
Genius, have you done an analysis of the electoral college? Has anyone analyzed the electoral college and how Trump can win. If so, whip it out. If not, then you suffer from the same delusion that liberals have when confronted with facts: kill the messenger.
So come on, bring it on. What have you seen where Trump wins the electoral college?
For you, as I think you really need this: http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/mar/16/election-anxiety-stress-advice-trump-clinton-sanders
-
So come on, bring it on. What have you seen where Trump wins the electoral college?
Since the country is only half way through the primaries and the general is still 8 months away, gazing into a crystal ball and playing "who will win what state" in the electoral college amounts to mental masturbation at this point.
Many factors are in play right now that will affect the electoral map. Voter turnout being primary. So far we are seeing very weak turnout for democrats and very robust turnout for republicans. And as of today, neither party has a nominee at this point. But yet the media in their undying effort to swing the vote is putting up electoral maps based upon witchcraft in order to persuade simple minded voters such as yourself who can and cannot win in the general, and you are swallowing it hook, line and sinker.
Please make sure to put up the electoral data your barber has come up with as yet more evidence of who the winner will be in November.
-
Since the country is only half way through the primaries and the general is still 8 months away, gazing into a crystal ball and playing "who will win what state" in the electoral college amounts to mental masturbation at this point.
Many factors are in play right now that will affect the electoral map. Voter turnout being primary. So far we are seeing very weak turnout for democrats and very robust turnout for republicans. And as of today, neither party has a nominee at this point. But yet the media in their undying effort to swing the vote is putting up electoral maps based upon witchcraft in order to persuade simple minded voters such as yourself who can and cannot win in the general, and you are swallowing it hook, line and sinker.
Please make sure to put up the electoral data your barber has come up with as yet more evidence of who the winner will be in November.
I know you think Trump can make a yuuuge deal and convince the electorate to all vote for him, because, you know, he makes beautiful deals, but someday you're going to have to learn that the tooth fairy isn't real, the Easter Bunny doesn't really bring candy, and as much as he thinks he can, Trump can't force people to do what they don't want to do.
I'm sorry if I shattered your image of any of those fables. Now go get a juice box, you'll feel better.
-
I know you think Trump can make a yuuuge deal and convince the electorate to all vote for him, because, you know, he makes beautiful deals, but someday you're going to have to learn that the tooth fairy isn't real, the Easter Bunny doesn't really bring candy, and as much as he thinks he can, Trump can't force people to do what they don't want to do.
I'm sorry if I shattered your image of any of those fables. Now go get a juice box, you'll feel better.
As usual, you can't add anything to the conversation except personal attacks to anyone that won't follow your line of thinking. All hot are and no substance.
Go ahead and believe that the electoral map is already laid out, and that both parties who has yet to nominate a candidate, already have the numbers in place. Keep telling yourself that as you close your eyes tightly and say "please, please, please, please be true!"
-
We don't even have a clue yet who the VP candidates will be, which can make a yuuuuge difference.
-
As usual, you can't add anything to the conversation except personal attacks to anyone that won't follow your line of thinking. All hot are and no substance.
Go ahead and believe that the electoral map is already laid out, and that both parties who has yet to nominate a candidate, already have the numbers in place. Keep telling yourself that as you close your eyes tightly and say "please, please, please, please be true!"
"Persuade simple minded voters such as yourself." That WAS from you, wasn't it?
So when someone responds in kind, you cry "personal attack."
What a child. You are starting to sound like a particular person on POA. No wonder you want to hide your identity.
There's a good place for people to go who can't take the heat of debate. It's called the Purple Board. I think they'll give you a nice soothing back rub there if you ask nicely. It can be your safe place, Snowflake.
-
Now go get a juice box, you'll feel better.
Seriously?
-
We don't even have a clue yet who the VP candidates will be, which can make a yuuuuge difference.
No,nddons has already decreed that the electoral numbers are set in stone and nothing will change them, his local TV guy has already said that will happen, and as you are aware the media has the crystal ball. nddons has already said nothing can change this such a events, voter turnout, who the actual nominee may be and items such as VP picks.
-
Seriously?
Yea seriously. That's all he can come back with when he can't counter anything with a convincing argument.
-
"Persuade simple minded voters such as yourself." That WAS from you, wasn't it?
So when someone responds in kind, you cry "personal attack."
What a child. You are starting to sound like a particular person on POA. No wonder you want to hide your identity.
There's a good place for people to go who can't take the heat of debate. It's called the Purple Board. I think they'll give you a nice soothing back rub there if you ask nicely. It can be your safe place, Snowflake.
I can take the heat, and argue using a concise argument. You on the other hand can only hurl insults when backed in a corner and offer nothing of substance.
And your Trump Derangement Syndrome is in full mode now, which is a bit entertaining.
-
I know you think Trump can make a yuuuge deal and convince the electorate to all vote for him, because, you know, he makes beautiful deals, but someday you're going to have to learn that the tooth fairy isn't real, the Easter Bunny doesn't really bring candy, and as much as he thinks he can, Trump can't force people to do what they don't want to do.
I'm sorry if I shattered your image of any of those fables. Now go get a juice box, you'll feel better.
I say Trump can negotiate with China. He intends to level the playing field created by their currency manipulation and closed markets. What is China going to do? Say sorry take it or leave it? I say let them, we can make stuff here if there is no benefit to the status quo and fairness in the trade relationship.
-
Mexico now gets more income from remittances than it does from their gas and oil reserves.
A tax on those remittances could pay for a wall.
-
I say Trump can negotiate with China. He intends to level the playing field created by their currency manipulation and closed markets. What is China going to do? Say sorry take it or leave it? I say let them, we can make stuff here if there is no benefit to the status quo and fairness in the trade relationship.
I'm no trade or currency expert, but this seems like drastic oversimplification. I have a feeling our manufacturing base is not prepared to "make stuff here", nor is our consumer base prepared to stomach the drastic cost increases were that to happen.
-
I'm no trade or currency expert, but this seems like drastic oversimplification. I have a feeling our manufacturing base is not prepared to "make stuff here", nor is our consumer base prepared to stomach the drastic cost increases were that to happen.
Didn't you read "The Art of the Deal"? It's so simple! Trump will make a beautiful deal. Just watch.
-
Didn't you read "The Art of the Deal"? It's so simple! Trump will make a beautiful deal. Just watch.
Yeah...I mean, he ran away from a blonde woman on Fox because she said mean things about him, but sure, he'll definitely stand up to China.
-
I've said this all along. Trump won't do well in the general. He is now energizing the angry white guy electorate, but when it comes to the general populace, he is no where near as popular. In fact they will pick Hillary, who is also very unpopular, but a little less so than Trump.
I keep hearing that (about Trump only appealing to the angry white guy), but I know many Ds, including women, that are so disillusioned with Hillary that they are talking about voting for Trump.
It will be interesting though.
-
I keep hearing that (about Trump only appealing to the angry white guy), but I know many Ds, including women, that are so disillusioned with Hillary that they are talking about voting for Trump.
It will be interesting though.
Right now the DNC is pushing the "angry white man" moniker as a way to dissuade Trump supporters.
Alinsky Rules:
RULE 5: “Ridicule is man’s most potent weapon.” There is no defense. It’s irrational. It’s infuriating. It also works as a key pressure point to force the enemy into concessions.
RULE 12: Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, and polarize it.” Cut off the support network and isolate the target from sympathy. Go after people and not institutions; people hurt faster than institutions.
-
I keep hearing that (about Trump only appealing to the angry white guy), but I know many Ds, including women, that are so disillusioned with Hillary that they are talking about voting for Trump.
It will be interesting though.
No, it will be extraordinarily boring.
Trumpy's free media will dry up as soon as he secures the nomination, and they will hammer him into the ground. The media has given him free coverage to get him to the nomination, now they'll turn on him. Trump was created by the media, they will destroy him just as quickly.
-
No, it will be extraordinarily boring.
Trumpy's free media will dry up as soon as he secures the nomination, and they will hammer him into the ground. The media has given him free coverage to get him to the nomination, now they'll turn on him. Trump was created by the media, they will destroy him just as quickly.
I really think, that if this is what you truly believe, your are grossly, and recklessly mistaken.
The fact that you think (and endlessly repeat) that Trump has, on the one hand been so savaged by Megyn Kelly that has run away, but has also not been challenged by the media demonstrates a pretty high level of cognitive dissonance in my opinion.
The constant namecalling of Trump and his supporters has grown truly pedantic as well, not that I think you can overcome your obsession enough at this point to give the smallest shit about that.
And understand that I have to fight the urge to refer to Cruz as Mr. Haney from Green Acres literally every single time I see his ghoulish face or hear his grating voice lecturing from the TV.
'Gimp
-
According to Real Clear Politics, this is what the Republican Primary polling looked like in June of last year:
- Bush (now OUT)
- Walker (now OUT)
- Rubio (now OUT)
- Carson (now OUT)
- Huckabee (now OUT)
- Paul (now OUT)
- Cruz
- Christie (now OUT)
- Trump
- Perry (now OUT)
- Kasich
- Santorum (now OUT)
- Fiorina (now OUT)
- Pataki (now OUT)
- Graham (now OUT)
- Jindal (now OUT)
That, plus current polls showing Bernie Sanders with double digit leads against ANY Republican is why I do not put much faith in polls.
Only one poll matters, it is held in November every four years.
'Gimp
-
I'm no trade or currency expert, but this seems like drastic oversimplification. I have a feeling our manufacturing base is not prepared to "make stuff here", nor is our consumer base prepared to stomach the drastic cost increases were that to happen.
I've been watching the reports of how effectively the millennials have been educated and prepared to compete in the labor market, and see nothing but failure for the future generation.