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Messages - nddons

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4606
Spin Zone / The Overton Window
« on: July 17, 2020, 05:11:41 AM »
As the City of Milwaukee today joins Dane County and other municipalities across the state in enacting a mask mandate and Milwaukeeans wonder when (if ever) their children will be allowed to return to school, one might naturally wonder how Wisconsin got to this point so quickly.

“Fifteen Days Slow the Spread” and “flatten the curve” of hospitalizations in March became a “Safer at Home” lockdown in April that ended only with a Supreme Court decision in May.  A spike in cases (not hospitalizations, intensive care visits or deaths) in June has prompted a return to draconian shutdowns by mid-July.

To understand how Wisconsin—and much of America—got here, one must first understand the concept of the Overton Window.

Named for its creator, the Mackinac Center’s Joseph P. Overton, the concept of the Overton Window refers to the ideas and public policies that “are widely accepted throughout society as legitimate policy options.

“These policies lie inside the Overton Window,” the Mackinac Center explains. “Other policy ideas exist, but politicians risk losing popular support if they champion these ideas. These policies lie outside the Overton Window.”

This window is not static, however; it is constantly shifting as ideas and policies become more broadly accepted or fall out of favor with the public.

“Sometimes politicians can move the Overton Window themselves by courageously endorsing a policy lying outside the window, but this is rare,” the Mackinac Center continues.  “More often, the window moves based on a much more complex and dynamic phenomenon, one that is not easily controlled from on high: the slow evolution of societal values and norms.”

The Overton Window of Coronavirus policy has shifted so dramatically in a matter of months that societal values and norms that were universally accepted at the start of the nationwide lockdowns are almost unrecognizable now.

“Imagine telling parents in March that their children might not be allowed to go back to school in September,” notes Breitbart News writer John Hayward.  “They would have rebelled from coast to coast. But now that’s a ‘mainstream’ position that is under serious debate.

“Opinion tends to swirl around enforced reality, like iron shavings dancing around strong magnets. Ironically, the movement leftward exploits the fundamentally conservative nature of the populace: they grow accustomed to the New Normal very quickly.”

The New Normal of mandatory mask-wearing, seemingly endless cycles of lockdowns and partial re-openings, and virtual education all but replacing the physical classroom was nearly unthinkable just four months ago.

The public readily accepted the necessity of “flattening the curve” of serious cases so that health care resources could be preserved and hospitals would not be overcrowded.  As the lockdown dragged on and it became obvious that hospital capacity was never going to be reached and the supply of resources was never going to be crippled, the public became increasingly skeptical about the efficacy of such an unprecedented (and likely unconstitutional) quarantine of the healthy.

But the new reality was enforced by a media that shifted its reporting from death and hospitalization statistics to new cases and politicians who shifted the narrative from “Flatten the Curve” to “No One Can Ever Get this Disease.”

If that sounds like a dramatic and largely nonsensical shift, it is.  But through the enforced reality of nonstop media coverage of new cases and the almost total ignoring of hospitalization and death rates, the Overton Window has shifted, and people are now far more likely to accept public policy that was soundly rejected by both the media and politicians alike as recently as April.

Over the weekend, CNN anchor Jake Tapper chided President Trump for finally wearing a mask during a visit to Walter Reed Medical Center.

“Someday someone will do a study on how many lives might have been saved if this happened in February or March,” he tweeted.

On March 1, though, Tapper himself said on his “State of the Union” Sunday program that wearing a mask “is not going to do anything for you.”

The following day, Surgeon General Jerome Adams told FOX News that wearing a mask “has not been proven to be effective in preventing the spread of Coronavirus amongst the general public.”

“If you do not have any respiratory symptoms, such as fever, cough, or runny nose, you do not need to wear a medical mask,” The World Health Organization advised on March 26.  “When used alone, masks can give you a false feeling of protection and can even be a source of infection when not used correctly.”

Both the WHO and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have now reversed course and are recommending masks, but has the science regarding their effectiveness changed?  No.

The Overton Window has simply shifted.

Similarly, the closing of schools was never meant to last more than a few weeks at most, but once the public became accustomed to and accepting of distance learning, the Overton Window shifted to the point that it is now within the range of tolerability for schools not to reopen for the fall semester.

It should not be.  Never before in American history has the concept of wholly abandoning in-person education been tolerated or even proposed—not even during the Spanish Flu and Polio epidemics of the past century—and while it may have been advisable to close schools this Spring to ensure that hospitals would not be overrun with sick children, since it is now known that this is a virtual impossibility, schools should be reopened.

Closures and lockdowns were never intended to be so long-lasting.  They were intended to prevent a run on valuable health care resources; not ensure that no one ever contracts the virus again.

The speed with which drastically shifting media and political narratives have moved the Overton Window on this has been nothing short of breathtaking, but what is truly terrifying is the degree to which medical science has been ignored in an effort to shift public perception.


https://www.maciverinstitute.com/2020/07/through-the-overton-window/

4607
Spin Zone / Re: Spirit Gate Agents Attacked
« on: July 16, 2020, 12:09:54 PM »
Is Spirit the official airline for BLM?  Asking for a friend.

4608
Spin Zone / Re: Asheville NC approves Reparations for Blacks
« on: July 16, 2020, 07:13:19 AM »
In the battle of Shiloh alone the Union forces had 13,000 casualties.

7,000 corpses littered the fields at Gettysburg.

596,670 union soldiers were killed, wounded, captured or missing.

Don’t fucking tell me about blood loss. 

4609
Pilot Zone / Re: Cessna 182-R doing Aerial imaging N9986H
« on: July 15, 2020, 03:47:10 PM »
Lots of things.  Forestry management, agriculture, environmental (drainage, water beds) are a few that come to mind.
A Retired Marine CFII teaching a REMF how to fly heading and altitude.

4610
Pilot Zone / Re: Bought a Navion
« on: July 15, 2020, 02:09:34 PM »
Keep it to the exploration phase.  I haven't seen a 337 at an airport in years.  I used to see them once in a while maybe fifteen year ago or longer.  There is a reason for that.  I never see them now.
I subscribe to Aviation Consumer. They had a good and fair article on the Skymaster in January 2019.

https://www.aviationconsumer.com/used-aircraft-guide/cessna-skymaster/

4611
Pilot Zone / Re: Bought a Navion
« on: July 15, 2020, 11:37:14 AM »
My mission for a long time was from Wisconsin to Columbus, OH.  The choices were around Chicago, up around the UP, or over Lake Michigan.  For all choices, it seemed that the Skymaster was the best plane for the job.  Inline thrust, airstair, "flys like a big 182", and all that.  I did a bunch of research.  Most of the conventional wisdom turned out to be myths.  But what finally got me off the Skymaster train was insurance.  Regardless of the inline feature, it's still a complex twin and the insurance companies treat it as such.  Cost is going up and fewer companies are willing to sell insurance to a relatively low time ( < 1000 hr) pilot.

Yes, fuel is more expensive feeding two engines.  That is minor compared to maintaining two engines and all the associated features of a complex twin.  It's certainly cool, but eventually the cost of ownership turned me around.  My cost spreadsheet came out to $33k a year for 100 hours.  I think that was way low.  I couldn't see spending that much for a really really cool toy.  Cost of getting into a 337 is attractive.  And for a very good reason.

As an aside, I looked at a 336 as a way of lowering maintenance costs.  Fixed-gear Skymaster.  Rare and the rear engine has some issues.  And insurance wasn't cheaper.
That’s a good point on insurance and one I haven’t gone down yet. Just exploring the type at this point.

I won’t go over Lake Michigan in a single, but I can always go around.

4612
Pilot Zone / Re: Bought a Navion
« on: July 15, 2020, 09:42:30 AM »
I'd get an O-1 over an O-2.  I can't imagine maintaining a Skymaster.
Doesn’t fit my mission as a cross country machine like the Navion or O-2. Plus, landing that sob with its spring steel landing gear would be an adventure every time.

4613
Pilot Zone / Re: Bought a Navion
« on: July 15, 2020, 08:48:01 AM »
So, I’m still looking for a Navion.

However, Cessna O-2A intrigue the shit out of me. Love their history. I know they can be Mx hogs, with two of everything, but they are one of the safest twins in the market.  Care and feeding of two power plants is a consideration. But it has hard points for rockets, so I’d have that going for me.  Good for anti-Antifa work.

Here’s a cool video (though the music is irritating):

https://youtu.be/-GSl-bNl_xk

4614
Spin Zone / Re: Thanks for playing Jeff......
« on: July 15, 2020, 06:46:25 AM »
Big time Trump supporter, then turns into the swamp creature he always was when the going got tough.

Proof that incumbent republicans are as much of the swamp as democrats.

Good riddance.

4615
Spin Zone / Re: Resignation Letter from NYT
« on: July 14, 2020, 01:28:05 PM »
Wow.

4616
Spin Zone / Re: Where do they think money comes from?
« on: July 14, 2020, 12:11:05 PM »
Bankruptcy laws are set.  The company is no longer in charge of spending money like that, it's in the hands of the bankruptcy court.
Yes, BUT - remember Obama sticking his hands into the Government Motors bankruptcy and totally turning the bankruptcy laws on their head, turning unsecured union employee creditors into secured creditors, and secured bond holders into unsecured creditors?

4617
Spin Zone / Re: Tucker Carlson
« on: July 14, 2020, 12:01:24 PM »
Yes, he’ll be back. He’s on a trout fishing vacation. He trout fishes. In fact there is a video where someone approached him to talk to him while he’s fishing in some creek in the DC area I think.

He didn’t say anything. One of his writers posted something two fucking years ago. Jesus Christ, if we are going to do guilt by association, I have a list, and the list is worthy of Tom Clancy’s closing in Debt of Honor.

4618
Spin Zone / Re: Schools
« on: July 14, 2020, 10:06:45 AM »
I have several FB friends that are school teachers. I see them decrying Betsy DeVos and how she doesn't even offer a plan. They post about how they cannot possibly go back to school, think of the kids. 

It pains me that they do not understand that local school districts should be making their own plans for returning. They also have no realization that kids from 0 - 18 are generally not at risk, one death here in Georgia in that age range. 

These teachers talk about not wanting to go back in the classroom. I say, fine, quit and find yourself another job. No one forces these people to continue as teachers., they can always do something else.
Sounds like teachers unions.

Milwaukee Public Schools (MPS) announced yesterday that they were going to start the school year by remote learning, and take it on a month to month basis. I guarantee MPS won’t be back in school for the rest of 2020.

You should ask your friends at which grade level will these students be when they DO return to the classroom?  Objectively they will have missed most of a school year. Will these students have to re-take their last grade, or will they be advanced, wholly unprepared for the next grade.

Betsy DeVos is asking these questions. Why aren’t your friends asking about the welfare of the kids?

(Rhetorical questions of course.)

4619
Spin Zone / Re: Election Strategy Going Forward
« on: July 14, 2020, 09:22:09 AM »
iirc, 10 years.  But I'm not a lawyer (never mind a US Constitutional Law lawyer.... hey, just like ....)
I took C Law in my Masters in Taxation. I think the only requirement is the ability to read. I loved the course.

I’m not a lawyer, but I’m convinced most who hold themselves out as “Constitutional Law ‘Experts’” are people who believe they are experts in getting around the Constitution, not supporting it.

4620
Spin Zone / Re: Election Strategy Going Forward
« on: July 14, 2020, 09:09:30 AM »
U.S. presidents are limited to serving two elected four-year terms in the White House and as many as two years of another president's term. That means the longest any president could serve is 10 years, though no one has been in the White House that long since Congress passed the constitutional amendment on term limits.

I don’t know how to post the url on the iPad.
Exactly. To clarify, if someone who was NOT elected president serves as the president for more than 2 years of a term, they may only be elected once for the presidency.

XXII Amendment, Section 1.

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