PILOT SPIN

Spin Zone => Spin Zone => Topic started by: President-Elect Bob Noel on April 10, 2020, 08:21:38 AM

Title: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: President-Elect Bob Noel on April 10, 2020, 08:21:38 AM
In Massachusetts, most of the COVID-19 deaths are in the population 60 and up (by "most" I mean nearly all).

So far, the highest daily number of deaths attributed to COVID-19 is 96 (all ages).

Using CDC data, if we look at the population of Massachusetts, grouped by ages, and then look at past death rates (by age groups).   You have to mash the data together (the CDC doesn't have a canned report for this nor a single set of queries), but you can get a rough idea that (for Massachusetts), we can normally expect 150 deaths per day for the population 55 and up.

I wonder how many deaths Massachusetts is experiencing that are being attributed to causes other than COVID-19.
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: Steingar on April 10, 2020, 12:29:20 PM
Because you are a myopic conservative all you can do is see deaths.  That is the only metric you seem to be able to measure this thing by.  I suppose it's to be expected, but disappointing nonetheless.

The 1-2% mortality isn't really the biggest concern with COVID19.  I wish it was, but it just isn't.  The concern is the 20% of the cases that turn critical and require hospitalization.  That number can swamp every hospital and every medical facility in short order.  Once that happens you start dying of the stuff you could have gotten treated  because you can't get to medical car because it's swamped out with virus patients.

Always cloudy is the future. Lots of variables.  Will warm wx slow down the spread of the virus?  Will people stay shuttered or will they start aggregating?  All this affects viral spread, and can't be predicted.
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: Lucifer on April 10, 2020, 12:35:19 PM
Because you are a myopic conservative all you can do is see deaths.  That is the only metric you seem to be able to measure this thing by.  I suppose it's to be expected, but disappointing nonetheless.

The 1-2% mortality isn't really the biggest concern with COVID19.  I wish it was, but it just isn't.  The concern is the 20% of the cases that turn critical and require hospitalization.  That number can swamp every hospital and every medical facility in short order.  Once that happens you start dying of the stuff you could have gotten treated  because you can't get to medical car because it's swamped out with virus patients.

Always cloudy is the future. Lots of variables.  Will warm wx slow down the spread of the virus?  Will people stay shuttered or will they start aggregating?  All this affects viral spread, and can't be predicted.

(https://media1.giphy.com/media/upybFRcOg85ZC/source.gif)
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: Lucifer on April 10, 2020, 12:36:23 PM
https://nypost.com/2020/04/09/coronavirus-traces-found-in-massachusetts-wastewater/

Quote
Coronavirus was detected in Massachusetts sewage at higher levels than expected, suggesting there are many more undiagnosed patients than previously known, according to a new study.

Researchers from biotech startup Biobot Analytics collected samples from a wastewater facility for an unnamed metropolitan area in late March, according to a report Tuesday on medRxiv.

Eric Alm, one of the authors of the study, which has not yet been peer reviewed, stressed that the public is not at risk of contracting the virus from particles in the wastewater, but they may have the potential to indicate how widespread the virus has become, Newsweek reported.

“Even if those viral particles are no longer active or capable of infecting humans, they may still carry genetic material that can be detected using an approach called PCR (polymerase chain reaction), which amplifies the genetic signal many orders of magnitude, creating billions of copies of the genome for each starting virus,” Alm told the outlet.
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: Steingar on April 10, 2020, 12:36:39 PM
(https://media1.giphy.com/media/upybFRcOg85ZC/source.gif)
Sorry to bore you.  In the future I'll try to use smaller words.
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: Lucifer on April 10, 2020, 12:39:21 PM
Sorry to bore you.  In the future I'll try to use smaller words.

You already write like a 5th grader, and apparently have the same comprehension skills. (apologies to 5tth graders)
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: President-Elect Bob Noel on April 10, 2020, 12:46:37 PM
Because you are a myopic conservative all you can do is see deaths.  That is the only metric you seem to be able to measure this thing by.  I suppose it's to be expected, but disappointing nonetheless.


The disappointing thing is how easily you pigeon hole someone without looking at the big picture.

It's also disappointing how little you seem to care about getting the data correct.  Even more disaapointing because you fancy yourself some kind of scientist.  Somehow I don't envision you as the type that would say "but it moves"
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: President in Exile YOLT on April 10, 2020, 12:49:59 PM
Because you are a myopic conservative all you can do is see deaths.  That is the only metric you seem to be able to measure this thing by.  I suppose it's to be expected, but disappointing nonetheless.

The 1-2% mortality isn't really the biggest concern with COVID19.  I wish it was, but it just isn't.  The concern is the 20% of the cases that turn critical and require hospitalization.  That number can swamp every hospital and every medical facility in short order.  Once that happens you start dying of the stuff you could have gotten treated  because you can't get to medical car because it's swamped out with virus patients.

Always cloudy is the future. Lots of variables.  Will warm wx slow down the spread of the virus?  Will people stay shuttered or will they start aggregating?  All this affects viral spread, and can't be predicted.

"Aggregating?

If this thing was as contagious as the pointy heads predict and the MSM lap up, why aren't whole families being wiped out from locking them up for weeks in a 500 sq ft apartment?

The models have ALL BEEN WRONG.

Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: Little Joe on April 10, 2020, 01:57:30 PM
Because you are a myopic conservative all you can do is see deaths. 
Actually, what I see most is the effect it has been having on my IRA and on my families employment income.  I'm doing ok, but the younger, wage earning members of my family are being devastated, AGAIN.  They are just getting back on their feet from the Great Recession.
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: Number7 on April 10, 2020, 03:22:41 PM
"Aggregating?

If this thing was as contagious as the pointy heads predict and the MSM lap up, why aren't whole families being wiped out from locking them up for weeks in a 500 sq ft apartment?

The models have ALL BEEN WRONG.

The models (invented by pointy beaded communists like steingar) are always wrong????
Why is that mikey?
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: Anthony on April 10, 2020, 03:29:57 PM
The models (invented by pointy beaded communists like steingar) are always wrong????
Why is that mikey?

I hope Mikey answers but doubtful, so I will tell you why.  As with Man Made Climate Change, the Models are designed to GET THE OUTCOME THEY WANT.  They are wrong because they are not supposed to be right, but get the desired, Communist, Anti American effect.  For some reason, the Media, Democrats, Education, Government, all go along with this ruse. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: President-Elect Bob Noel on April 10, 2020, 04:02:31 PM
The output of a model can be wrong when the input data is crap.  At the very least, the model output is questionable.
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: Anthony on April 10, 2020, 07:35:00 PM
Well now we know where Steingar gets all his info and marching orders.  The New York Times and CNN.  Pure indoctrination of the weak minded. 

Quote
New federal projections show a spike in infections if shelter in place orders are lifted at 30 days.

As new federal projections warned of a spike in coronavirus infections if shelter-in-place orders were lifted after only 30 days, President Trump said Friday that the question of when to relax federal social distancing guidelines was “the biggest decision I’ll ever make.”

As a practical matter, the stay-at-home orders that have kept much of the nation hunkered down have been made by governors and mayors at the state and local levels. But many governors were moved to act in part by the federal guidelines meant to slow the spread of the coronavirus.

Mr. Trump, who has often sounded impatient for the nation — and particularly its economy — to reopen, said that he would listen to the advice of the medical experts before acting, but also said that he would convene a new task force with business leaders on it next week to think about when to act.

At a news briefing at the White House on Friday, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said that while he had not seen the new projections warning of what would happen if the guidelines were relaxed too quickly, he assumed that any lifting of restrictions would be an increase in cases, which would heighten the need to be able to identity, isolate and trace them.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/coronavirus-cases-in-the-us-live-updates/ar-BB12qDxP?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=LENDHP
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: President in Exile YOLT on April 10, 2020, 08:19:16 PM
Well now we know where Steingar gets all his info and marching orders.  The New York Times and CNN.  Pure indoctrination of the weak minded. 

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/coronavirus-cases-in-the-us-live-updates/ar-BB12qDxP?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=LENDHP

If 100,000 are tested per week it will take almost a year to test everyone, if that's even practicable, and if there's still a country by then.

Where are the treatments? If hospitalizations can be cut below the critical mass of available beds, then we should phase in return to normal. This "model" shit is just a guess. This disease isn't fatal enough to warrant stopping the economy.
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: Rush on April 11, 2020, 04:31:12 AM
Well now we know where Steingar gets all his info and marching orders.  The New York Times and CNN.  Pure indoctrination of the weak minded. 

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/coronavirus-cases-in-the-us-live-updates/ar-BB12qDxP?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=LENDHP

While that is technically a factual report of the briefing, it is extremely skewed, portraying Trump as “impatient”.  If a person were watching his family being tortured to death, would he be criticized as being “impatient” for it to stop?

And do any of you remember if msm referred to Obama as “Mr.” Obama, or his correct title: “President Obama”?
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: EppyGA - White Christian Domestic Terrorist on April 11, 2020, 04:49:18 AM
A question for my fellow denizens of Pilot Spin, would you take a vaccine manufactured by one of Bill Gates factories knowing that he is in favor of lowering the world population by sterility?
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: President-Elect Bob Noel on April 11, 2020, 05:31:29 AM
If 100,000 are tested per week it will take almost a year to test everyone, if that's even practicable, and if there's still a country by then.


1,000,000 tests per day would take almost a year.

unless I've done the public math incorrectly.  If I did, I apologize.

Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: jb1842 on April 11, 2020, 07:41:56 AM
A question for my fellow denizens of Pilot Spin, would you take a vaccine manufactured by one of Bill Gates factories knowing that he is in favoring of lowering the world population by sterility?

Nope. He couldn't even protect Windows from viruses.
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: Lucifer on April 11, 2020, 07:47:49 AM
A question for my fellow denizens of Pilot Spin, would you take a vaccine manufactured by one of Bill Gates factories knowing that he is in favoring of lowering the world population by sterility?

Gates is one of these that believes wealth equals intelligence.  Yes, I give him credit for what he helped develop which revolutionize the world of computing, but keep in mind he didn't do it on his own.

If he wants to be a philanthropist and donate for the benefit of mankind, perhaps he should follow the models of Carnegie, Vanderbilt, etc and donate, then let the experts figure it out.
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: Anthony on April 11, 2020, 07:51:56 AM
Gates is one of these that believes wealth equals intelligence.  Yes, I give him credit for what he helped develop which revolutionize the world of computing, but keep in mind he didn't do it on his own.

If he wants to be a philanthropist and donate for the benefit of mankind, perhaps he should follow the models of Carnegie, Vanderbilt, etc and donate, then let the experts figure it out.

He, like Bloomberg, Bezos, David Geffen, Richard Branson, and many others has become a Far Left Progressive Demagogue.  We see Obama on all their yachts.  These mega rich often become Masters of the Universe looking for whatever the next challenge can bring them.  They also are control freaks.  Thinking they know better for everyone else due to their financial success.
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: Lucifer on April 11, 2020, 07:57:24 AM
He, like Bloomberg, Bezos, and many others has become a Far Left Progressive Demagogue.  These mega rich often become Masters of the Universe looking for whatever the next challenge can bring them.  They also are control freaks.  Thinking they know better for everyone else due to their financial success.

Yep, totally unlike the Industrial age guys who changed the country then settled into retirement and gave away a large part of their wealth to benefit their fellow man. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: Lucifer on April 11, 2020, 08:02:19 AM
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: Username on April 11, 2020, 08:04:27 AM
My experience with software, especially Microsoft software, is NEVER use version 1.0 of anything!
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: President in Exile YOLT on April 11, 2020, 08:54:52 AM
While that is technically a factual report of the briefing, it is extremely skewed, portraying Trump as “impatient”.  If a person were watching his family being tortured to death, would he be criticized as being “impatient” for it to stop?

And do any of you remember if msm referred to Obama as “Mr.” Obama, or his correct title: “President Obama”?

That F'er Peter Jennings (RIP) always referred to GWB as "Mr Bush" or "the president."  I used to listed for "President Bush" and never heard him say that.
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: President in Exile YOLT on April 11, 2020, 08:56:11 AM
1,000,000 tests per day would take almost a year.

unless I've done the public math incorrectly.  If I did, I apologize.

No, you're right, and that's what I was thinking but wrote something else!
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: Anthony on April 11, 2020, 09:05:16 AM
That F'er Peter Jennings (RIP) always referred to GWB as "Mr Bush" or "the president."  I used to listed for "President Bush" and never heard him say that.

Jennings like his contemporaries Tom Brokaw and Dan Rather were Far Left Progressive propaganda spewers.  Jennings was a Commie Canadian.  There was really no alternative media to hold them accountable, not that there is much now.  Any an outlet like Fox, or Breitbart (very different btw) are demonized as right wing nutjob sites because the Left does NOT like to be questioned.  Look at the occasional Lefty who comes here and worships all those propaganda outlets.
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: Lucifer on April 11, 2020, 03:08:13 PM
(https://cdn.creators.com/1054/276407/276407_image.jpg)
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: Steingar on April 12, 2020, 10:33:32 AM
COVID19 will resist efforts at modeling for a number of reasons.  The first is the range of phenotypes from the sniffles to death.  Not many viruses cover quite that big a range.  The second is our own government's lackadaisical approach to detection. We are completely reliant on a technology know for giving false positives. A quickly administered serological test should have been put in place some time ago.  Third, the symptoms of COVID19 are the same as just about every other cold virus in existence, so false positives are easily generated.

Someone else said it, garbage in results in garbage out.   I can't blame anyone for trying to model the spread of the disease, a lot depends on it. But I put little faith in any of the models at this point.  Too much uncertainty.
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: Rush on April 12, 2020, 10:39:44 AM
COVID19 will resist efforts at modeling for a number of reasons.  The first is the range of phenotypes from the sniffles to death.  Not many viruses cover quite that big a range.  The second is our own government's lackadaisical approach to detection. We are completely reliant on a technology know for giving false positives. A quickly administered serological test should have been put in place some time ago.  Third, the symptoms of COVID19 are the same as just about every other cold virus in existence, so false positives are easily generated.

Someone else said it, garbage in results in garbage out.   I can't blame anyone for trying to model the spread of the disease, a lot depends on it. But I put little faith in any of the models at this point.  Too much uncertainty.

Agree with every word. And we are destroying our economy over these models that aren't accurate. I want somebody to model the economic depression. It can't be any worse than the pandemic models.
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: President-Elect Bob Noel on April 12, 2020, 10:47:58 AM
A quickly administered serological test should have been put in place some time ago.

What was the last serological test that was developed and fielded in a month?  2 months?  3 months?

Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: Steingar on April 12, 2020, 11:27:38 AM
What was the last serological test that was developed and fielded in a month?  2 months?  3 months?
The last one was Ebola, I believe.  And it isn't 3 months, more like 5 or 6.
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: Little Joe on April 12, 2020, 11:36:45 AM
The last one was Ebola, I believe.  And it isn't 3 months, more like 5 or 6.
Yet you are upset that Trump didn't go down to the lab and create one in less than a month?   ;)
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: Anthony on April 12, 2020, 12:00:04 PM
This is the #1 story on my MSN page, and all over the mainstream media. but Steingar's other propaganda source besides the New York Times, CNN, takes the cake.

Quote
Dr. Anthony Fauci said Sunday that calls to implement life-saving social distancing measures faced "a lot of pushback" early in the US coronavirus outbreak and that the country is now looking for ways to more effectively respond to the virus should it rebound in the fall.

 

"I mean, obviously, you could logically say that if you had a process that was ongoing and you started mitigation earlier, you could have saved lives," Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert, told CNN's Jake Tapper on "State of the Union" when asked if social distancing and stay-at-home measures could have prevented deaths had they been put in place in February, instead of mid-March.

"Obviously, no one is going to deny that. But what goes into those decisions is complicated," added Fauci, who is a key member of the Trump administration's coronavirus task force. "But you're right, I mean, obviously, if we had right from the very beginning shut everything down, it may have been a little bit different. But there was a lot of pushback about shutting things down back then."

Fauci is about a far left, progressive, Democrat, DEEP STATE as they come.  Known Hillary worshipper, Bill Gates bribed, big time Globalist.  Trump should have fired him long before this Virus emerged.  Plus anybody with a first name like that has to be a douche!

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/anthony-fauci-admits-earlier-covid-19-mitigation-efforts-would-have-saved-more-american-lives/ar-BB12wn0n?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=LENDHP
 
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: President in Exile YOLT on April 12, 2020, 12:36:36 PM
This is the #1 story on my MSN page, and all over the mainstream media. but Steingar's other propaganda source besides the New York Times, CNN, takes the cake.

Fauci is about a far left, progressive, Democrat, DEEP STATE as they come.  Known Hillary worshipper, Bill Gates bribed, big time Globalist.  Trump should have fired him long before this Virus emerged.  Plus anybody with a first name like that has to be a douche!

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/anthony-fauci-admits-earlier-covid-19-mitigation-efforts-would-have-saved-more-american-lives/ar-BB12wn0n?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=LENDHP
 

Think how many lives could be saved if we locked down the country every flu season.
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: Anthony on April 12, 2020, 12:37:26 PM
Think how many lives could be saved if we locked down the country every flu season.

Don't give them any ideas!  That's what the Progressives want!
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: lowtimer on April 12, 2020, 12:39:16 PM
Think how many lives could be saved if we locked down the country every flu season.

Think how many lives could be saved if the country was always locked down.

Don't leave your home without a gov approved reason or else.
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: President-Elect Bob Noel on April 12, 2020, 12:53:47 PM
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/medtech/fda-officially-authorizes-its-first-serological-antibody-blood-test-for-covid-19

edit:  anyone know of a serological test that was developed and approved quicker?
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: President in Exile YOLT on April 12, 2020, 01:03:09 PM
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/medtech/fda-officially-authorizes-its-first-serological-antibody-blood-test-for-covid-19

meh

Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: Jim Logajan on April 12, 2020, 02:01:10 PM
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/medtech/fda-officially-authorizes-its-first-serological-antibody-blood-test-for-covid-19

edit:  anyone know of a serological test that was developed and approved quicker?

It’s an FDA EUA, not a formal approval. The FDA EUA for the Cellex test was issued April 1.
BTW, the FDA has an updating list of EUAs at this web page:
https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/emergency-situations-medical-devices/emergency-use-authorizations#covid19ivd (https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/emergency-situations-medical-devices/emergency-use-authorizations#covid19ivd)
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: President in Exile YOLT on April 12, 2020, 02:02:32 PM
It’s an FDA EUA, not a formal approval. The FDA EUA for the Cellex test was issued April 1.
BTW, the FDA has an updating list of EUAs at this web page:
https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/emergency-situations-medical-devices/emergency-use-authorizations#covid19ivd (https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/emergency-situations-medical-devices/emergency-use-authorizations#covid19ivd)

Cellex = Chinese company

Needs phlebotomist, therefore low throughput
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: President-Elect Bob Noel on April 13, 2020, 06:49:34 AM
The last one was Ebola, I believe.  And it isn't 3 months, more like 5 or 6.

Are you saying the Ebola test took 5 or 6 months to develop?

or

Are you trying to say that COVID-19 was known to exist in October or November of 2019?

Too bad the WHO didn't know about it way back then

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/events-as-they-happen

note the first entry is 31 December, and it talks about "Pneumonia of unknown cause reported to WHO China Office"


Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: Lucifer on April 13, 2020, 03:18:22 PM
https://pjmedia.com/trending/no-the-united-states-does-not-lead-the-world-in-coronavirus-cases-or-deaths/
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: Anthony on April 13, 2020, 03:31:04 PM
https://pjmedia.com/trending/no-the-united-states-does-not-lead-the-world-in-coronavirus-cases-or-deaths/

I see the Media constantly harping that the U.S. leads in the number of CV deaths (that's Chinese Virus), yet no PER CAPITA numbers.  The U.S. has over 330 Million people plus who knows how many ILLEGAL ALIENS. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: President-Elect Bob Noel on April 13, 2020, 03:36:15 PM
I see the Media constantly harping that the U.S. leads in the number of CV deaths (that's Chinese Virus), yet no PER CAPITA numbers.  The U.S. has over 330 Million people plus who knows how many ILLEGAL ALIENS.

Considering that the US is #3 in population, behind China and India, it's no surprise that the US has a lot of covid-19 cases and covid-19 deaths.
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: Steingar on April 14, 2020, 08:01:16 AM
Yet you are upset that Trump didn't go down to the lab and create one in less than a month?   ;)
No, I am upset that Trump didn't use his extensive Presidential power to fast track a serological test.  There are a ton of government labs that do this kind of stuff.  Moreover, I am upset at Trump trashing his intelligence services and State Department.  A competent President would have known about Wuhan and the virus before anyone, that's what intelligence is there for. I am honked off at him for firing his pandemic team, who could have given his government really sage advice about how to keep the damn thing away from our shores. Fauci is as good a virologist as there is, but he isn't an Epidemiologist.   I am really honked off that Trump didn't use his extensive power to close the borders once it looked like this thing was going Pandemic.  I am even more honked off that Trump continues on his path of mistruth and innuendo, and is trying to get everyone back to work so the virus that he let into the country can kill that many more people.  All he cares about is money, and if lots of people have to die to get it he doesn't care.

You guys think everything good is because of him and nothing bad is his fault.  Had this happened under Obama you'd have been demanding his impeachment.  Trump has no responsibility for anything bad.  Well, I got news.  At the end of the day the POTUS is most responsible for the safety of Americans.  Trump blew it about as hard as one could blow it.  He blew it so hard that Governors had to step in and do what was needed.  I have never in my life seen such a lack of leadership.

But you guys love him no matter what.
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: Username on April 14, 2020, 08:04:02 AM
There are tens of thousands of virologists around the world and hundreds of labs.  Why didn't any of those geniuses see that there was a pandemic on the horizon and develop a test to see who has it, an antibody test to see who had it, or a vaccine to cure those that don't have it.  Whoever had ANY of those first would be a billionaire by now.  Why must you depend on the government to tell you what to do?  Is it Trump's fault, or your own fault for not seeing what's out there and then DOING SOMETHING ABOUT IT WITHOUT BEING TOLD?
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: Anthony on April 14, 2020, 08:05:17 AM
No, I am upset that Trump didn't use his extensive Presidential power to fast track a serological test.  There are a ton of government labs that do this kind of stuff.  Moreover, I am upset at Trump trashing his intelligence services and State Department.  A competent President would have known about Wuhan and the virus before anyone, that's what intelligence is there for. I am honked off at him for firing his pandemic team, who could have given his government really sage advice about how to keep the damn thing away from our shores. Fauci is as good a virologist as there is, but he isn't an Epidemiologist.   I am really honked off that Trump didn't use his extensive power to close the borders once it looked like this thing was going Pandemic.  I am even more honked off that Trump continues on his path of mistruth and innuendo, and is trying to get everyone back to work so the virus that he let into the country can kill that many more people.  All he cares about is money, and if lots of people have to die to get it he doesn't care.

You guys think everything good is because of him and nothing bad is his fault.  Had this happened under Obama you'd have been demanding his impeachment.  Trump has no responsibility for anything bad.  Well, I got news.  At the end of the day the POTUS is most responsible for the safety of Americans.  Trump blew it about as hard as one could blow it.  He blew it so hard that Governors had to step in and do what was needed.  I have never in my life seen such a lack of leadership.

But you guys love him no matter what.

This would have never happened under Obama.  I mean the MEDIA/DEMOCRAT over the top panic, shutdown and purposeful ECONOMIC COLLAPSE would have never happened.  It didn't happen under Obama with H1N1 which is proving to be worse. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: President-Elect Bob Noel on April 14, 2020, 08:07:41 AM
I wonder if people understand the US Constitution and the powers of the Federal Government vs the States

edit:  Actually, I don't wonder.  The ignorance of the US Constitution is appalling.
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: Lucifer on April 14, 2020, 08:08:15 AM
No, I am upset that Trump didn't use his extensive Presidential power to fast track a serological test.  There are a ton of government labs that do this kind of stuff.  Moreover, I am upset at Trump trashing his intelligence services and State Department.  A competent President would have known about Wuhan and the virus before anyone, that's what intelligence is there for. I am honked off at him for firing his pandemic team, who could have given his government really sage advice about how to keep the damn thing away from our shores. Fauci is as good a virologist as there is, but he isn't an Epidemiologist.   I am really honked off that Trump didn't use his extensive power to close the borders once it looked like this thing was going Pandemic.  I am even more honked off that Trump continues on his path of mistruth and innuendo, and is trying to get everyone back to work so the virus that he let into the country can kill that many more people.  All he cares about is money, and if lots of people have to die to get it he doesn't care.

You guys think everything good is because of him and nothing bad is his fault.  Had this happened under Obama you'd have been demanding his impeachment.  Trump has no responsibility for anything bad.  Well, I got news.  At the end of the day the POTUS is most responsible for the safety of Americans.  Trump blew it about as hard as one could blow it.  He blew it so hard that Governors had to step in and do what was needed.  I have never in my life seen such a lack of leadership.

But you guys love him no matter what.

 Another content free posting

(https://media.giphy.com/media/26hitHwPRMN8jg7Nm/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: Lucifer on April 14, 2020, 08:09:07 AM
I wonder if people understand the US Constitution and the powers of the Federal Government vs the States

edit:  Actually, I don't wonder.  The ignorance of the US Constitution is appalling.

Yep.
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: President-Elect Bob Noel on April 14, 2020, 08:11:21 AM
No, I am upset that Trump didn't use his extensive Presidential power to fast track a serological test.  ...

...

But you guys love him no matter what.

Are you ever going to answer the questions regarding how long it should take to develop a serological test?

and, you are ignoring the facts if you think everyone is loves President Trump (never mind "no matter what").

Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: Anthony on April 14, 2020, 08:14:25 AM
I wonder if people understand the US Constitution and the powers of the Federal Government vs the States

edit:  Actually, I don't wonder.  The ignorance of the US Constitution is appalling.

Good point.  Although many Democrats and people like Steingar call Trump a dictator that wants to be king, the "Mango Mussolini" (love that one!  :))  He has done NOTHING outside his normal powers as President.  He can't just wave a magic wand and force the STATES to do something.  He can encourage, and collaborate.  He can NOT DICTATE. 

So again Michael, you are a HYPOCRITE.  Calling Trump a dictator on one hand, then excoriating him for not "acting more and acting sooner".   >:(
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: Mr Pou on April 14, 2020, 08:24:22 AM
Are you ever going to answer the questions regarding how long it should take to develop a serological test?

and, you are ignoring the facts if you think everyone is loves President Trump (never mind "no matter what").

I know this is directed at Micheal, but I'm going to say, no, I don't love President Trump "no matter what."[1]  But, I didn't hire him for his personality, or because I thought he was a great guy, or someone fun to go bowling with, I hired him because I though he'd be the best person for the job. I hired a President, not a buddy. That said, I think he's done a better overall job than anyone I've hired, or attempted to hire, in my voting lifetime.

[1] He could certainly tone down the tweets and not wear his emotions on his sleeve, but whatever. The overall package is very good.
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: President-Elect Bob Noel on April 14, 2020, 08:31:54 AM
I know this is directed at Micheal, but I'm going to say, no, I don't love President Trump "no matter what."[1]  But, I didn't hire him for his personality, or because I thought he was a great guy, or someone fun to go bowling with, I hired him because I though he'd be the best person for the job. I hired a President, not a buddy. That said, I think he's done a better overall job than anyone I've hired, or attempted to hire, in my voting lifetime.

[1] He could certainly tone down the tweets and not wear his emotions on his sleeve, but whatever. The overall package is very good.

Well, you can count me as someone that most definitely believes President Trump is not the best President in my voting lifetime.

edit:  but President Trump is far better than President Clinton or President Obama ever was.
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: Mr Pou on April 14, 2020, 08:37:03 AM
Well, you can count me as someone that most definitely believes President Trump is not the best President in my voting lifetime.

edit:  but President Trump is far better than President Clinton or President Obama ever was.

Reagan was just before I could vote, so I can't count him. After Reagan, it's hard to think of a better overall President than Trump, no matter what I might think of him as a person.
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: President-Elect Bob Noel on April 14, 2020, 08:51:07 AM
Reagan was just before I could vote, so I can't count him. After Reagan, it's hard to think of a better overall President than Trump, no matter what I might think of him as a person.

ah, 1980 was the first year I could vote in a Presidential election
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: Anthony on April 14, 2020, 08:59:46 AM
ah, 1980 was the first year I could vote in a Presidential election

Me too.  I couldn't wait to vote for Ronnie. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: President in Exile YOLT on April 14, 2020, 09:07:52 AM
Another content free posting

(https://media.giphy.com/media/26hitHwPRMN8jg7Nm/giphy.gif)

Has anyone ever seen both Steingar and Aunt Peggy at the same time?
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: President in Exile YOLT on April 14, 2020, 09:08:59 AM
Reagan was just before I could vote, so I can't count him. After Reagan, it's hard to think of a better overall President than Trump, no matter what I might think of him as a person.

The Dems at the time thought (and still do) that Reagan was the Devil incarnate.
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: Anthony on April 14, 2020, 09:12:30 AM
Has anyone ever seen both Steingar and Aunt Peggy at the same time?

YES!  Unfortunately (eh Mikey?)    ;D

Yes, at one of the Wings POA fly-ins Aunt Peggy and Steingar were both there at the same time.  Aunt Peggy would NOT speak to me even after I approached her very cordially, and politely.  Such tolerance and inclusiveness these Communists have.  Michael (Steingar) was a pleasure to talk to as was his wife.  We had a great time together. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: Little Joe on April 14, 2020, 09:41:23 AM
Governors had to step in and do what was needed.
There was so much wrong with your post it would take much more time than I care to spend refuting it.  But this stood out to me.

What you should have said was "Governors had to step up and do their jobs".  There is no way the States would have allowed Trump to shutdown local economies.

And one other thing.  You are actually calling for him to close borders?  That's a laugh.  When he halted flights from China he was called all sorts of names (racist, zenophobic and more) by democrats and the press, and even some Republicans.  yet now they say that wasn't even enough.  It sure is easy to be a Monday morning quarterback, especially when you are allowed to lie.
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: Lucifer on April 14, 2020, 09:57:51 AM
Perfesser was on here spewing crap about the border wall.  He was all in for open borders.

Hypocrite.
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: Anthony on April 14, 2020, 10:04:06 AM
Perfesser was on here spewing crap about the border wall.  He was all in for open borders.

Hypocrite.

The Democrats and their Media are all for Open Borders disguised as Amnesty and a plethora of give away programs targeted for ILLEGAL ALIENS. Hmmmm, let's see them spin how it's good for America to have people we know nothing about, including what DISEASES they bring, come here ILLEGALLY in massive numbers.
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: President-Elect Bob Noel on April 26, 2020, 11:46:53 AM
No, I am upset that Trump didn't use his extensive Presidential power to fast track a serological test....


Are you ever going to answer the questions regarding how long it should take to develop a serological test?
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: Number7 on April 26, 2020, 12:22:42 PM
No, I am upset that Trump didn't use his extensive Presidential power to fast track a serological test.  There are a ton of government labs that do this kind of stuff.  Moreover, I am upset at Trump trashing his intelligence services and State Department.  A competent President would have known about Wuhan and the virus before anyone, that's what intelligence is there for. I am honked off at him for firing his pandemic team, who could have given his government really sage advice about how to keep the damn thing away from our shores. Fauci is as good a virologist as there is, but he isn't an Epidemiologist.   I am really honked off that Trump didn't use his extensive power to close the borders once it looked like this thing was going Pandemic.  I am even more honked off that Trump continues on his path of mistruth and innuendo, and is trying to get everyone back to work so the virus that he let into the country can kill that many more people.  All he cares about is money, and if lots of people have to die to get it he doesn't care.

You guys think everything good is because of him and nothing bad is his fault.  Had this happened under Obama you'd have been demanding his impeachment.  Trump has no responsibility for anything bad.  Well, I got news.  At the end of the day the POTUS is most responsible for the safety of Americans.  Trump blew it about as hard as one could blow it.  He blew it so hard that Governors had to step in and do what was needed.  I have never in my life seen such a lack of leadership.

But you guys love him no matter what.

I guess you are too blind stupid, in love with your lies, that you spout like a cracked alarm bell, to remember history.

obama had his epidemic but the press were as dishonest about it as you are about the chinese wuhan virus, now.

The fucking chinese engineered this crisis, let it get out and just like good democrats, lied out their asses and ordered drones like you to lie for them, resulting in a much worse problem.

Dishonest doesn’t do you justice. You are a pathetic, shill the for lies and treason as long you get your orders from your communist masters. It makes no difference what lies you tell as long as you are told what to think and say, you are always good to go.
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: President-Elect Bob Noel on May 02, 2020, 02:59:17 PM
No, I am upset that Trump didn't use his extensive Presidential power to fast track a serological test. 


Are you ever going to answer the questions regarding how long it should take to develop a serological test?
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: EppyGA - White Christian Domestic Terrorist on May 02, 2020, 03:48:37 PM
Can anyone explain this?
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: President-Elect Bob Noel on May 02, 2020, 03:59:07 PM
Can anyone explain this?
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Interesting find.

Was there something that struck you?  or where you showing the relative impact of COVID-19 on the overall mortality rates?

I wonder how long it takes for data to make it into those tables?  For example, will the "55,062" deaths as of week 4/18/2020 get bumped up next week?
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: EppyGA - White Christian Domestic Terrorist on May 02, 2020, 04:55:22 PM
Interesting find.

Was there something that struck you?  or where you showing the relative impact of COVID-19 on the overall mortality rates?

I wonder how long it takes for data to make it into those tables?  For example, will the "55,062" deaths as of week 4/18/2020 get bumped up next week?
Did you look at the total in the first column? That includes COVID deaths
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: President-Elect Bob Noel on May 02, 2020, 05:00:53 PM
Did you look at the total in the first column? That includes COVID deaths

yup, but I'm not going to assume that all deaths get reported promptly.  A lot of people want the COVID-19 deaths numbers reported asap but maybe not so much wrt other causes.
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: EppyGA - White Christian Domestic Terrorist on May 02, 2020, 06:07:25 PM
yup, but I'm not going to assume that all deaths get reported promptly.  A lot of people want the COVID-19 deaths numbers reported asap but maybe not so much wrt other causes.

The table heading says


Quote
Deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), pneumonia, and influenza reported to NCHS by week ending date, United States. Week ending 2/1/2020 to 4/25/2020.*
We've been told we're around 60,000+ from COVID alone
Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: bflynn on May 03, 2020, 03:29:57 AM
No, I am upset that Trump didn't use his extensive Presidential power to fast track a serological test.

I believe he has done what he can.  Have you ever heard of a vaccine entering phase 1 human trials in 3 months?  That happened because the CDC, under the president's direction, is using emergency authority.  He has also deployed military assets to assist where needed, even where not needed, declared a national emergency, which freed up FEMA to assist the states, and limited travel into the United States.  The WHO declared this a pandemic on Jan 30 and on Jan 31, the president started travel bans, which Democrats opposed, tried to get struck down in courts and even tried to make laws to overturn.

I'm not sure what else you think the president can do.  Despite having control over the military, he cannot reallocate money except in very narrow cases which are defined by Congress.  The spending of money in the US government is, as it should be in a Republic, mandated by law.

BTW, Everbo, the vaccine for Ebola, was developed in Africa years before the virus hit the US. Development and initial testing was already done, so while it was fast tracked when Merk got it, it was already a proven drug.

I am honked off at him for firing his pandemic team, who could have given his government really sage advice about how to keep the damn thing away from our shores.

OMG, are you still on about that?  It was a reorg, two very similar departments were consolidated and duplicate positions were eliminated.  That included one of the two directors.  Come on Michael, this was debunked months ago by everyone except snopes.  But even they admit, in small print at the bottom, that "2018 reductions in CDC efforts referenced were a result of the anticipated depletion of previously allotted funding, not a direct cut by the Trump administration."

Look, if you're just here to stir the pot, that's one thing.  But when you bring dumb stuff like this in, you really don't accomplish anything except hardening resistance against everything on your side.  Do some freakin' research.


Title: Re: COVID-19 deaths vs expected number of deaths
Post by: President-Elect Bob Noel on May 03, 2020, 05:05:07 AM
The table heading says

We've been told we're around 60,000+ from COVID alone

I read the table headings.

I've been looking at reported COVID-19 data for quite some time.  Over the past several months, one trend I've noticed is some places track when a death is reported and some places track when the death occurred.