PILOT SPIN
Spin Zone => Spin Zone => Topic started by: CharlieTango on February 28, 2016, 12:19:27 PM
-
I have always advocated free trade and when I take a fresh look in 2016 I realize it didn't work out.
Trump is right that we are getting screwed, so as a thought exercise pretend Trump won the presidency and has a mandate to make America great again.
In a world where our focus was to again make things, most things, maybe almost all things here in America again what would it look like? Fund the government with tariffs?
What if we moved towards isolationism looking for a reset to a healthy economy and way of life?
What jobs could we take back?
-
How many of us would pay for those things? Think of something you buy today and probably double the price, are you in?
-
How many of us would pay for those things? Think of something you buy today and probably double the price, are you in?
The rhetoric from the Left is that greedy corporations "sent jobs overseas" but they ignore the fact, as you pointed out, that the masses would not willingly pay more for "Made in America."
-
I have always advocated free trade and when I take a fresh look in 2016 I realize it didn't work out.
Trump is right that we are getting screwed, so as a thought exercise pretend Trump won the presidency and has a mandate to make America great again.
In a world where our focus was to again make things, most things, maybe almost all things here in America again what would it look like? Fund the government with tariffs?
What if we moved towards isolationism looking for a reset to a healthy economy and way of life?
What jobs could we take back?
The vast majority of jobs "sent overseas" are done by machines. We live in interesting times; the predictions are that within the next 20 years (some say sooner) most work, white collar included, will be capable of being done by robots and computers. This the Utopia promised in the '60s and beyond where people will work very little but be able to enjoy a lot of leisure time. They conveniently left out the fact that humans (well, a lot of us) need to be productive and contribute, and unless we tax the output of machines, what kind of economy are we creating?
How was the federal government funded prior to 1913?
-
How many of us would pay for those things? Think of something you buy today and probably double the price, are you in?
Prices are currently irrational.
*I'm a building contractor in an area where new homes are built for $400-$600 / sq ft
*Stock prices for companies that send jobs overseas while losing money on operations but magically increasing in value due to stock-buy backs are priced irrationally
*Cost of building cars in the US in many cases still defers to UAW power and cause their autos to be priced irrationally, Ford and GM are both moving more to Mexico
*The price of money is irrational as we go from ZIRP to NIRP
*Price of oil fluctuates over $100 / bbl - crazy again
*Top heavy govt means much of the working population produce nothing but hinderance
*Free enterprise has fallen victim to over regulation that protects big companies
*Too big to fail remains the reality, when they can't lose they don't price rationally.
*We subsidize companies and industries that take our money and then move overseas.
*We subsidize companies and industries for political reasons that have no hope of life beyond subsidy.
I don't agree its as simple as tariffs would double prices, too many things are fucked up to allow America to be great again. Need to head back to pay as you go, spend what you can afford, govt by the citizenry, self reliance ... etc. in order to bring back opportunity to prosper.
-
How many of us would pay for those things? Think of something you buy today and probably double the price, are you in?
Some US-made things I've bought:
A really top quality pair of shoes made in the USA (much more expensive than the $70 shoes at Sears)
My firearms
Tools, when I can. If not US-made, then for sure and for certain I won't buy the crap made in China.
-
The truth is that corporations are MULTINATIONAL and answer to stockholders, who rightly expect a return on their investment.
The only way for mass producers to expand market share, and profits, in these economic times are to look outside the US for labor and operating savings due to the insane regulatory environment created by ever expanding government, which has to justify its existence by making up ever expanding regulations.
To return manufacturing to the USA, the USA must kill off the vast majority of useless regulation, while holding firm on useful regulation, and learn to operate more efficiently, and pose less of a threat to the economy.
-
The truth is that corporations are MULTINATIONAL and answer to stockholders, who rightly expect a return on their investment.
The only way for mass producers to expand market share, and profits, in these economic times are to look outside the US for labor and operating savings due to the insane regulatory environment created by ever expanding government, which has to justify its existence by making up ever expanding regulations.
To return manufacturing to the USA, the USA must kill off the vast majority of useless regulation, while holding firm on useful regulation, and learn to operate more efficiently, and pose less of a threat to the economy.
The huge corps WANT regulation. It keeps the riff raff out.
-
Well, part of the reason it makes some sense is that some of the low-cost countries that jobs were off-shored to (like China), are no longer able to compete solely based on wages anymore as their costs have risen over the past few decades. Also, the American worker is supposedly 8-10X's as efficient as the low-cost country worker because of our infrastructure and automation capabilities. So, I don't think it would be a pure doubling of product costs to the average consumer, because efficiency gains would result in similar direct-expenses. Also, the transportation costs of shipping all of that inventory, and the sheer volume of inventory that has to be maintained due to the lag in shipping times is of no minor consequence. For products that end up back on American soil, it makes less sense to hold large stocks of inventories, pay for trans-oceanic shipping, and pay for an decreasing wage advantage/efficiency disadvantage.
All that said, it doesn't apply to every product, and there are plenty of nuances that wouldn't result in an automatic overnight job explosion.
-
Without a substantial reduction in the direct and indirect costs of doing business in the US (tax policy, employment and contract law, tort reform, Obamacare removed, smaller more efficient Government at Federal, State and Local level that focuses on enumerated powers type of support, and reduced compliance/paperwork costs would go a long way off the top of my head) this is not really possible, especially for a company that is publicly traded and has investors demanding a return for which Mgmt is fiducially responsible.
It also requires a strong negotiator on trade to punish countries like China that (until recently) have no compunction about violating intellectual property rights and which continues to manipulate its currency to the detriment of its own citizens as well as all of its trading partners.
It is a very complex situation requiring a lot of varied techniques to fix. I believe Trump fully understands this and is trying to build the national resolve for the fight this would be - to include disruptions in the economy and the flow of goods currently produced or processed overseas.
The fundamental issue is that many jobs would not come back even if the commerce did, automation being a real concern along with technological improvements - when was last time you had the milkman drop off the milk, the iceman drop off the ice for your icebox, or had your horse shoe'd?
Key is to have a situation where Americans have an opportunity to make the living they seek if they put in the time required as employees or entrepreneurs or civil servants.
-
Wouldn't it be extremely messy for perhaps a long time? Picture jobs illegals hold, empty. How long until American citizens move into those jobs? What happens in Mexico when people can't get out to earn money to send home? Will Mexico turn into a festering sore, or will they address the needs of their citizens so they can flourish?
As for immigration, follow the Canadian model. I believe they require a sizeable amount of personal assets, and some means of making a living, plus sponsors from Canada.
-
Without a substantial reduction in the direct and indirect costs of doing business in the US (tax policy, employment and contract law, tort reform, Obamacare removed, smaller more efficient Government at Federal, State and Local level that focuses on enumerated powers type of support, and reduced compliance/paperwork costs would go a long way off the top of my head) this is not really possible, especially for a company that is publicly traded and has investors demanding a return for which Mgmt is fiducially responsible.
It also requires a strong negotiator on trade to punish countries like China that (until recently) have no compunction about violating intellectual property rights and which continues to manipulate its currency to the detriment of its own citizens as well as all of its trading partners.
It is a very complex situation requiring a lot of varied techniques to fix. I believe Trump fully understands this and is trying to build the national resolve for the fight this would be - to include disruptions in the economy and the flow of goods currently produced or processed overseas.
The fundamental issue is that many jobs would not come back even if the commerce did, automation being a real concern along with technological improvements - when was last time you had the milkman drop off the milk, the iceman drop off the ice for your icebox, or had your horse shoe'd?
Key is to have a situation where Americans have an opportunity to make the living they seek if they put in the time required as employees or entrepreneurs or civil servants.
Fast food is well on its way to being automated. Most manufacturing already is. Are we on our way to a net decrease in jobs? I have a liberal friend who says dismissively, "Not everyone needs to work" when people gripe about their lazy grandson or failed-launch kids.
-
Fast food is well on its way to being automated. Most manufacturing already is.
At $15/hr minimum wage to flip burgers it doesn't take long for the Flip-o-Matic to make economic sense.
'Gimp
-
While there should not be any expectation that all of the jobs outsourced would come back onshore 1 for 1, there certainly could be a meaningful amount returned. Also, even though automation takes away a significant share of those jobs, installation, repair, and maintenance of that machinery becomes a larger and larger market for job creation. Again, not 1 for 1, but it does help a bit. If China, et al., suddenly have no one buying their products or using their cheap labor because the US brought jobs back home, the dynamics of the Chinese currency and their economy will change drastically. If the US and other developed nations were to start enforcing patent law in terms of economic sanctions, China might be more inclined to play ball.
-
While there should not be any expectation that all of the jobs outsourced would come back onshore 1 for 1, there certainly could be a meaningful amount returned. Also, even though automation takes away a significant share of those jobs, installation, repair, and maintenance of that machinery becomes a larger and larger market for job creation. Again, not 1 for 1, but it does help a bit. If China, et al., suddenly have no one buying their products or using their cheap labor because the US brought jobs back home, the dynamics of the Chinese currency and their economy will change drastically. If the US and other developed nations were to start enforcing patent law in terms of economic sanctions, China might be more inclined to play ball.
You are right about those jobs, except the kids going to college today don't want to do that crap. They want a foreign studies degree or some such crap.
-
The socialist evolution view includes an idea that evolving technology will eventually require less effort from mankind and will allow more leisure time for the rank and file worker. I've always found it humorous that so many who endorse the idea don't seem to realize that it means fewer people are needed to work the jobs. But they will be the first to get upset with the "greedy" corporation who doesn't need them anymore.
Closing the border is a short term solution. Employment will go up, we could even find jobs for those that don't want to work. We would not need as much in the way of a social safety net.
But the lack of competition would tend to make us fall behind. Being isolated and independent from others means you tend not to excel at things, you do enough to get by.
-
I don't think it would look all that different. Most of the manufacturing here is heavily automated. The jobs the immigrants are doing are the jobs Americans won't. The guys who painted my house were all immigrants, as were the dudes who put on my roof. I asked both foremen why, they said they couldn't get Americans who would show up for work sober. I've heard the same thing from every auto mechanic shop owner I've ever met.
-
I don't think it would look all that different. Most of the manufacturing here is heavily automated. The jobs the immigrants are doing are the jobs Americans won't. The guys who painted my house were all immigrants, as were the dudes who put on my roof. I asked both foremen why, they said they couldn't get Americans who would show up for work sober. I've heard the same thing from every auto mechanic shop owner I've ever met.
Thank you!! This is the reality. A great many American workers suck. At lower income and education levels there is often poor work ethic and a sense of entitlement. I have asked many a contractor I have hired the same thing and the answer is uniform. My brother runs a plastics manufacturing company in Southern California and it is the same for him. Below a certain education level, American workers suck. He much prefers immigrants, they work hard, don't complain and show up for work reliably.
Hate to say it, but at this point we need immigrants.
All this talk of bringing back jobs from Hillary, Bernie, Trump and others is bull crap election pandering. The president can't just demand factories be built here. Trust me, Obama would have done that by now. The truth is, people in China, or Mexico, or Vietnam, or Thailand, or Malaysia, or Korea will work for a fraction of what it is even possible for a person to work for here. There is a reason there is little manufacturing here and it's not OSHA, or the EPA, or high taxes that is the big boogie man. It's low cost of labor and that's it and the free market has worked that out.
Of course we could look to the socialist countries of Europe to see how to preserve some manufacturing. Follow the examples of Germany, France, Sweden and England that still have manufacturing with high wages, strong unions, high taxes and strong regulations. They use trade barriers and protectionism. Companies there have to pay high wages, but there is a savings in that the healthcare and pensions are often covered by the government, so industry doesn't have to pay that part. Since WWII, there has never been a car factory close in Germany until just a couple of years ago when either GM, or Ford closed one. I can't remember which one. The Germans were stunned.
So protectionist socialism, or free market?
If Trump believed the crap he pedals he should show by example. He should show the world that every single person in his organization and all the properties he manages is run 100% by American born labor. I am certain he can not do this.
-
I don't think it would look all that different. Most of the manufacturing here is heavily automated. The jobs the immigrants are doing are the jobs Americans won't. The guys who painted my house were all immigrants, as were the dudes who put on my roof. I asked both foremen why, they said they couldn't get Americans who would show up for work sober. I've heard the same thing from every auto mechanic shop owner I've ever met.
Four guys are outside right now giving our lawn its yearly aerating and de-thatching. All are white. And we live in a county with a 50% Hispanic population.
The other day we had an electrical company come out. The principal was Hispanic, the assistant white.
Our HVAC guy is white. My mom's housecleaner is white. The two guys who painted our house last summer are white. We didn't all select for white, it just turned out that way. So I have a little trouble accepting that whites don't want work.
-
Four guys are outside right now giving our lawn its yearly aerating and de-thatching. All are white. And we live in a county with a 50% Hispanic population.
The other day we had an electrical company come out. The principal was Hispanic, the assistant white.
Our HVAC guy is white. My mom's housecleaner is white. The two guys who painted our house last summer are white. We didn't all select for white, it just turned out that way. So I have a little trouble accepting that whites don't want work.
Just reporting what I'm seeing ma'm. But I think there must be something to it, or all these folks wouldn't be coming here from other lands.
-
A cool way to cross the border:
http://www.wsj.com/video/building-a-different-kind-of-border-bridge/D6893E81-D488-4759-9063-CCCE0B509C52.html
As to thread topic, I totally believe that if the illegal alien flow dried up, American citizens would step into a large number of the jobs that would open up, if indeed Americans are unemployed and desire to work. It's human nature to improve one's lot. And it would really help if the government didn't support people who refuse to work.
-
Interesting.
-
When aliens take over a trade that was formerly done by American that no longer want to do this work, keep in mind the work got re-priced.
It takes a reversal of this repricing to entice Americans to want to do this work.
Consider that all Americans are not equal in there amount of need for work. I have often gone to the prison/parole system for workers that were willing to work hard at entry level. Different segments of our society are willing to do different levels of 'unpleasant' work.
-
A cool way to cross the border:
http://www.wsj.com/video/building-a-different-kind-of-border-bridge/D6893E81-D488-4759-9063-CCCE0B509C52.html
As to thread topic, I totally believe that if the illegal alien flow dried up, American citizens would step into a large number of the jobs that would open up, if indeed Americans are unemployed and desire to work. It's human nature to improve one's lot. And it would really help if the government didn't support people who refuse to work.
We actually had a program called "Welfare to Work" going back to welfare reform put in place in the 1990s, until Obama gave states waivers from enforcing the law.
-
For the most part, the jobs illegals have are jobs that we won't do. No one is coming here stealing jobs that we'll do for $8/hr. Has there ever been a U.S. citizen willing to do low-level work for low pay? Sure. But that's not the norm.
Companies move production to other countries for cheaper labor, and to a point I can't blame them. But don't let Trump or anyone else talk about how the companies are evil for doing that and he'll make sure they come back. He'd be the first one to move production elsewhere if it mean he'd earn an extra dime.
I'm not concerned about Hispanics putting roofs on or mowing lawns. I'm actually more disheartened with importing people to do high-wage white collar work. The number of IT folks we actively recruit to come here is absurd. First, they could make their own countries much better off with those skills. And unless we just don't have the people to fill our job openings, I do think they should be reserved for Americans.
But even the company I work for sponsors the work visas, saying they just can't attract qualified programmers here. And I know for a fact that's a load of crap. For every job posting we have there are 200+ applicants. Granted, most aren't qualified, but you know that some of them are. Why we're importing labor for those jobs is beyond me.
-
But even the company I work for sponsors the work visas, saying they just can't attract qualified programmers here. And I know for a fact that's a load of crap. For every job posting we have there are 200+ applicants. Granted, most aren't qualified, but you know that some of them are. Why we're importing labor for those jobs is beyond me.
Because they are cheap and do whatever they are told because if they don't they go back to the rathole they came from.
-
For the most part, the jobs illegals have are jobs that we won't do. No one is coming here stealing jobs that we'll do for $8/hr. Has there ever been a U.S. citizen willing to do low-level work for low pay? Sure. But that's not the norm.
Have you looked at home building sites to see who is doing the work? You're telling me that we don't have citizens that would do house framing, etc?
-
I'm an insulation contractor and my crew is not all alien. In this part of California many trades are still mostly white.
Some trades will be aliens at one company but whites at the competitor.
The idea that Americans will not do the work is bullshit.
In recent years I have to offer $16/hour as starting pay for a trainee and at that its hard to find applicants. There is just too much free shit to get people to work in general, its not really whites vs aliens.
-
The idea that Americans will not do the work is bullshit.
In recent years I have to offer $16/hour as starting pay for a trainee and at that its hard to find applicants.
Well sure, if we paid people $16/hr to do $8/hr work we'd find more Americans to do the work. Not many more, but a few more for sure.
-
Well sure, if we paid people $16/hr to do $8/hr work we'd find more Americans to do the work. Not many more, but a few more for sure.
Unless you were to also reduce welfare/wic/medicaid and other able-bodied safety net programs to drug-tested/means-tested subsistence level assistance with a much higher bar of establishing real disability - and to reduce assistance for babies borne while the mother is on assistance - then these jobs would be filled and the wages would increase.
'Gimp
-
A cool way to cross the border:
http://www.wsj.com/video/building-a-different-kind-of-border-bridge/D6893E81-D488-4759-9063-CCCE0B509C52.html
As to thread topic, I totally believe that if the illegal alien flow dried up, American citizens would step into a large number of the jobs that would open up, if indeed Americans are unemployed and desire to work. It's human nature to improve one's lot. And it would really help if the government didn't support people who refuse to work.
They would only take those jobs as long as they paid substantially more than "government assistance", which in all of it's forms can be quite substantial. Why work hard when you can receive almost as much by not working, or by working "off the books".
-
Free trade at least provides us all with less-expensive goods.Cutting corporate taxes and expensive federal regulation compliance cost is key to repatriating business and domestic production. Trade tariffs can be raised on all sides, accomplishing nothing for American workers.