PILOT SPIN
Spin Zone => Spin Zone => Topic started by: President-Elect Bob Noel on August 09, 2020, 06:21:54 PM
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https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html
ok, the page is a month old.... yeah, I forgot to check the page until today.
Notable changes are:
replacing symptomatic fatality rate with Infection Fatality Rate and, in effect, increasing the "best estimate" scenario overall infection fatality rate to 0.65%. The previous "best estimate" was 0.4% overall symtomatic fatality rate.
increasing the "Percent of infections that are asymptomatic" from 35% to 40% (again, for the "best estimate" scenario)
These would combine to make the symptomatic fatality rate more like 1%...assuming I did the math correctly, but public math can always be risky (interestingly, that is approximately consistent with the outcome for at least one cruise ship - IIRC).
also interesting was the decrease of the "Infectiousness of asymptomatic individuals relative to symptomatic" from 100% to 75% (again, for the "best estimate" scenario)
And, of course, note that the page has a disclaimer kind of buried: "...They are not predictions or estimates of the expected impact of COVID-19."