PILOT SPIN
Spin Zone => Spin Zone => Topic started by: bflynn on April 27, 2016, 09:50:09 AM
-
Electoral votes are the only ones that will count. You can play head to head games all day but in the end it will be electoral votes that determine who is president.
Let's face it - both Cruz and Trump are in trouble because Republicans are in trouble. They are absolutely not adept at using the media and (I believe) have good ideas but haven't thought through how to connect those ideas with people to show them how their lives get better. Hillary is a desperation vote for a lot of people because there's no alternative being presented.
This is one of the better sites I've see, although I think some of their polls might be lagging.
http://electiongraphs.com/2016ec/?Dem=Clinton&Rep=Cruz&Days=0&Format=spec (http://electiongraphs.com/2016ec/?Dem=Clinton&Rep=Cruz&Days=0&Format=spec)
The bottom lines -
For nominee Cruz to win the presidency, he will have to win 7 key states: Colorado, Iowa, Georgia and North Carolina which lean toward him already plus Wisconsin, Nevada and Ohio which lean toward Clinton.
For nominee Trump to win the presidency, he will need to win 7 slightly different states: Colorado, Georgia and Missouri which lean toward him plus Ohio, North Carolina, Florida and Iowa.
Which is more likely -
Cruz winning Wisconsin, Nevada and Ohio?
or
Trump winning Ohio, North Carolina, Florida and Iowa?
-
Electoral votes are the only ones that will count. You can play head to head games all day but in the end it will be electoral votes that determine who is president.
Let's face it - both Cruz and Trump are in trouble because Republicans are in trouble. They are absolutely not adept at using the media and (I believe) have good ideas but haven't thought through how to connect those ideas with people to show them how their lives get better. Hillary is a desperation vote for a lot of people because there's no alternative being presented.
This is one of the better sites I've see, although I think some of their polls might be lagging.
http://electiongraphs.com/2016ec/?Dem=Clinton&Rep=Cruz&Days=0&Format=spec (http://electiongraphs.com/2016ec/?Dem=Clinton&Rep=Cruz&Days=0&Format=spec)
The bottom lines -
For nominee Cruz to win the presidency, he will have to win 7 key states: Colorado, Iowa, Georgia and North Carolina which lean toward him already plus Wisconsin, Nevada and Ohio which lean toward Clinton.
For nominee Trump to win the presidency, he will need to win 7 slightly different states: Colorado, Georgia and Missouri which lean toward him plus Ohio, North Carolina, Florida and Iowa.
Which is more likely -
Cruz winning Wisconsin, Nevada and Ohio?
or
Trump winning Ohio, North Carolina, Florida and Iowa?
Can we use a ouiji board?
-
Can we use a ouiji board?
No because you could unwarily open up some portal to Hell, and allow demons to enter your home. Be careful with that sh*t. :)
-
No because you could unwarily open up some portal to Hell, and allow demons to enter your home. Be careful with that sh*t. :)
That might be appropriate since from what I see around here, Trump has a snowball's chance in hell of winning North Carolina.
-
I think Cruz stands a better chance at winning Wisconsin, Nevada and Ohio, especially if he were to get Kasich's endorsement. If Trump is the nominee, I wonder two things: how much of the angry vote will he continue to receive and will the Never Trump crowd have an impact and stick to not voting for him? Some will for sure, but some may cave and decide he's the lesser of two evils.
-
Some will for sure, but some may cave and decide he's the lesser of two evils.
Others will conclude he's the evil of two lessers.
-
The WH is lost to the GOP. Neither Cruz nor Trump has the proverbial snowball's chance in hell. Trump will either win the nomination or he will have the plurality of delegates. If the RNC denies him, a goodly percentage of Trump supporter are likely to sit out the election in anger at the establishment. Even without that, once the Dems and the business community turn their attention and money on negative Cruz ads, he will be lucky to win any but the most solid red states which is not nearly enough.
Trump will lose too, but at least if he is the nominee the GOP will not be as badly split and they would stand a better chance of holding the Senate and House. Splitting the party by denying Trump threatens the GOP will loss of at least the Senate. If that happens, Hillary will be appointing young socialists to the SCOTUS and there will be no one to stop her. That would be a disaster.
-
Can Hillary still continue to run from prison?
-
Can Hillary still continue to run from prison?
Well, Trump'll be on trial for fraud in connection with Trump University during the general election campaign, so there's that advantage shot to hell.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/04/26/ny-judge-decides-trump-university-case-going-to-trial.html
-
Can Hillary still continue to run from prison?
Yeah right! A Democrat President is going to allow his DOJ to indict a Democrat who is poised to be the next POTUS. Sure! Happens all the time. We know that the Dems scrupulously follow the spirit of the law even to their own detriment. ;D
-
I see you recognize the humor and irony of my post.
-
Personally, I think Trump supporters are more likely to support a non-trump nominee than Cruz supporters are likely to support a Trump nominee. There is that "flexibility" think which Cruz and his disciples have none of.
I predict the Rs win big in November, unless Cruz is selected at a brokered convention; which just ain't going to happen.
-
The WH is lost to the GOP. Neither Cruz nor Trump has the proverbial snowball's chance in hell.
So a snowball has a 4% chance in hell? That's all it needs to shift. If the battleground states shift just 4% to the right then either Cruz or Trump win. I think Cruz has the better chance of doing that than Trump.
I didn't mention, but Kasich is a landslide winner right now. Hillary would have to move about 15% to the left in order to beat Kasich.
It's like they're running a 1 mile race, except everyone isn't going to run the same distance. Trump will start from the 1.5 mile mark, Cruz will start at the 1.25 mile mark and Kasich will run a half mile. Who do you want to bet on?
I like Cruz, but I would take Kasich.
-
So a snowball has a 4% chance in hell? That's all it needs to shift. If the battleground states shift just 4% to the right then either Cruz or Trump win. I think Cruz has the better chance of doing that than Trump.
I didn't mention, but Kasich is a landslide winner right now. Hillary would have to move about 15% to the left in order to beat Kasich.
It's like they're running a 1 mile race, except everyone isn't going to run the same distance. Trump will start from the 1.5 mile mark, Cruz will start at the 1.25 mile mark and Kasich will run a half mile. Who do you want to bet on?
I like Cruz, but I would take Kasich.
I would take Kasich, but it isn't happening. It will be an interesting election cycle.
-
I would take Kasich, but it isn't happening. It will be an interesting election cycle.
It's been a sickening cycle so far. If you compare Trump and Hillary to each other, all their negatives just serve as indictments of how bad the other one is. With all the distrust of Hillary the only way the Republicans could not win would be to put up someone just as bad or worse and vice versa.
It's like they scraped the bottom of the barrel on both sides to get the worst candidates they could find.
-
I would take Kasich, but it isn't happening. It will be an interesting election cycle.
I agree that Kasich won't get it. He's very popular in Ohio and seems to have done very well there. However his position on immigration and gun rights are non-starters for a lot of people, myself included.
-
It's been a sickening cycle so far. If you compare Trump and Hillary to each other, all their negatives just serve as indictments of how bad the other one is. With all the distrust of Hillary the only way the Republicans could not win would be to put up someone just as bad or worse and vice versa.
It's like they scraped the bottom of the barrel on both sides to get the worst candidates they could find.
That's exactly what the polls say about their negatives. Each has historically high negative ratings.
-
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/24_opt_out_of_a_clinton_trump_race
-
It's been a sickening cycle so far. If you compare Trump and Hillary to each other, all their negatives just serve as indictments of how bad the other one is. With all the distrust of Hillary the only way the Republicans could not win would be to put up someone just as bad or worse and vice versa.
It's like they scraped the bottom of the barrel on both sides to get the worst candidates they could find.
Both parties have a lot of pissed off voters who are now anti-establishment. However, the GOP is much more so than the Dems. The Dems have a center-left candidate and the GOP is going to pick Trump, who defies description in political terms, and a far right ideologue who is entirely unsuited for the democratic process. Kasich would be a center-right choice who has a far better chance of appealing to the swing voters, though I don't see him getting the nomination.
-
Both parties have a lot of pissed off voters who are now anti-establishment. However, the GOP is much more so than the Dems. The Dems have a center-left candidate ...
Center left of what, the Moa line?
-
The Dems have a center-left candidate
What a coincidence. If Trump wins the nomination, the Republicans will have a centre-left candidate too!
-
What a coincidence. If Trump wins the nomination, the Republicans will have a centre-left candidate too!
but arguably Trump would be a better leader that then lying sack of horse manure the DNC will likely nominate.
too subtle? is anyone doubting that I completely despise the doormat?
-
but arguably Trump would be a better leader that then lying sack of horse manure the DNC will likely nominate.
too subtle? is anyone doubting that I completely despise the doormat?
Jeff is just once again affirming his support for Hillary, and with a likely Trump-Clinton matchup in the general Jeff will go all out for Hillary. Just watch.
-
but arguably Trump would be a better leader that then lying sack of horse manure the DNC will likely nominate.
too subtle? is anyone doubting that I completely despise the doormat?
If it's arguable, then argue it.
People keep saying "Trump would be better than Hillary", but nobody seems to offer any evidence or actual argument to back that assertion up.
-
If it's arguable, then argue it.
People keep saying "Trump would be better than Hillary", but nobody seems to offer any evidence or actual argument to back that assertion up.
Trump verbalizes some of the same goals that I have. Hillary is against those goals.
He recognizes many of the same problems that I see. Hillary pushes those problems forward.
He says what's on his mind without running everything by a focus group, like Hillary does.
He made his fortune following the laws, as they are written. Hillary makes up her own laws as she goes because nobody has ever successfully called her on it.
Trump has a history of actual accomplishment.
-
If it's arguable, then argue it.
People keep saying "Trump would be better than Hillary", but nobody seems to offer any evidence or actual argument to back that assertion up.
In this context, my understanding of the use of "arguably" is an idiom.
-
In this context, my understanding of the use of "arguably" is an idiom.
Well, that's certainly arguable! ;)
-
Today both CBS and Rasmussen are now showing a Trump-Clinton general election as a tie.
-
GOP still controls the vast majority of statehouses and governorships, and one half of the Legislative body (not to mention one half of the SCOTUS). I honestly don't think they're in any trouble at all, and a Clinton presidency will likely be the very best thing for them.
-
GOP still controls the vast majority of statehouses and governorships, and one half of the Legislative body (not to mention one half of the SCOTUS). I honestly don't think they're in any trouble at all, and a Clinton presidency will likely be the very best thing for them.
Why?
If the GOP couldn't congeal around a conservative ideal to contrast against 8 years of Obama fascism, what makes you think they will do well under Hillary?
McConnell is only comfortable as the minority leader. He sucks as majority leader.
-
GOP still controls the vast majority of statehouses and governorships, and one half of the Legislative body (not to mention one half of the SCOTUS). I honestly don't think they're in any trouble at all, and a Clinton presidency will likely be the very best thing for them.
If your argument is that somehow the Republicans will win more seats in both national and state elections because of Clinton, then I agree, but that still doesn't make it good for Republicans. Remember that whomever the next president is will have up to 4 SCOTUS seats to fill, not including the current vacancy (assuming no one gets confirmed between now and the next president being sworn in). I could probably deal with a Clinton presidency easier if the SCOTUS wasn't such a contentious issue (and the Republicans maintained control of both houses of Congress). That issue alone has me the most concerned.
-
GOP still controls the vast majority of statehouses and governorships, and one half of the Legislative body (not to mention one half of the SCOTUS). I honestly don't think they're in any trouble at all, and a Clinton presidency will likely be the very best thing for them.
And why is that? Because people are sick of Obama's fasco-communist policies. The people VOTED for those governors, and state legislatures as well as the Fed House and Senate. THE PEOIPLE VOTED. If Hillary wins we get more Obama anti American nonsense, and four far left, radical Supreme Court justices, and more FUNDAMENTAL TRANSFORMATION. But, your faculty lounge would love that, right?
-
What does any of the responses in this thread have to do with the title of this tread? Electoral Votes ???
-
What does any of the responses in this thread have to do with the title of this tread? Electoral Votes ???
Are you new to the interweb?
:-)