PILOT SPIN

Spin Zone => Spin Zone => Topic started by: Lucifer on October 23, 2016, 05:28:50 PM

Title: Why polling is AFU this time
Post by: Lucifer on October 23, 2016, 05:28:50 PM
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-23/new-podesta-email-exposes-dem-playbook-rigging-polls-through-oversamples
Title: Re: Why polling is AFU this time
Post by: bflynn on October 23, 2016, 08:10:42 PM
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-23/new-podesta-email-exposes-dem-playbook-rigging-polls-through-oversamples

Look at RCP right now - they have two polling organizations showing a recent national poll.  In a general sense, IBD/TIPP Tracking shows Trump winning by 2, ABC "News" shows Clinton by 12.  Looking these up on the 538 polster rating, they get an A- and A+ respectively, so both are really good, accurate groups.  But one of them is obviously dramatically wrong. 

There's other information that says less than 1% of people are responding to polls.  10 years ago it was 90%+, 4 years ago 10%.

Has the sample size gotten so small that the standard deviation makes the end result useless?  Or was something a push poll? 

We will know in a few weeks.
Title: Re: Why polling is AFU this time
Post by: EppyGA - White Christian Domestic Terrorist on October 24, 2016, 04:05:22 AM
Polls will get more accurate when 11/1 rolls around because they all want to say that were right on 11/9
Title: Re: Why polling is AFU this time
Post by: EppyGA - White Christian Domestic Terrorist on October 24, 2016, 06:16:12 AM
Title: Re: Why polling is AFU this time
Post by: Username on October 24, 2016, 06:58:22 AM
Has the sample size gotten so small that the standard deviation makes the end result useless?  Or was something a push poll? 

We will know in a few weeks.

I used to answer polls.  I thought it was a good thing that added something to society.  Now, no.  I get a couple of calls every day asking my opinion.  I don't trust that the poll was actually constructed properly.  And I don't trust whoever is collecting that data about me.  I have no idea what the data will be used for or who will be keeping it.  Most likely it will be kept and found very useful when the great dissident roundup begins.
Title: Re: Why polling is AFU this time
Post by: asechrest on October 24, 2016, 07:44:17 AM
Unskew the polls redux?
Title: Re: Why polling is AFU this time
Post by: JeffDG on October 24, 2016, 09:04:28 AM
Unskew the polls redux?
Romney honestly bought the skewed polls BS and thought he would in in '12.  Sad that Trumpkins are falling for the same scam.
Title: Re: Why polling is AFU this time
Post by: nddons on October 24, 2016, 09:24:44 AM
This is all about depressing Trump's electorate in an effort to reduce GOP turnout. Hell, even Chris Wallace was badgering Kelly Ann Conway yesterday about the polls. It seems these talking heads will accept nothing but surrender and defeat by the GOP. 
Title: Re: Why polling is AFU this time
Post by: nddons on October 24, 2016, 09:26:38 AM
Romney honestly bought the skewed polls BS and thought he would in in '12.  Sad that Trumpkins are falling for the same scam.
You don't think the 24/7 immersion of perceived negative polls impacted the turnout on the GOP side?
Title: Re: Why polling is AFU this time
Post by: asechrest on October 24, 2016, 09:35:54 AM
You don't think the 24/7 immersion of perceived negative polls impacted the turnout on the GOP side?

What does that mean? The polls were right. Or are you saying the polls were skewed, which depressed turnout, which fulfilled the skewing? Think I'll go with Occam's Razor on that one.
Title: Re: Why polling is AFU this time
Post by: Bob Noel on October 24, 2016, 10:06:36 AM
What does that mean? The polls were right. Or are you saying the polls were skewed, which depressed turnout, which fulfilled the skewing? Think I'll go with Occam's Razor on that one.

If you wish to ignore cause/effect....

Title: Re: Why polling is AFU this time
Post by: asechrest on October 24, 2016, 10:23:01 AM
If you wish to ignore cause/effect....

You have established a cause/effect relationship.
Title: Re: Why polling is AFU this time
Post by: Bob Noel on October 24, 2016, 10:49:00 AM
You have established a cause/effect relationship.

I have?

Title: Re: Why polling is AFU this time
Post by: asechrest on October 24, 2016, 11:25:13 AM
I have?

Haven't, sorry.
Title: Re: Why polling is AFU this time
Post by: You Only Live Twice on October 24, 2016, 11:39:22 AM
It seems these talking heads will accept nothing but surrender and defeat by the GOP.

They've gotten used to it.
Title: Re: Why polling is AFU this time
Post by: bflynn on October 24, 2016, 11:41:24 AM
Unskew the polls redux?

Yes, but which way are the polls skewed.

Why did I turn on CNN for 30 seconds today and hear all about the ABC poll placing Hillary at +12 and nothing about the IBD/TPP poll placing Donald at +2?  One of them is skewed. 



Quote from: https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/insights/how-polls-influence-behavior
With the presidential race in the home stretch, there's little doubt that the unending barrage of polling data influences voters. But the conventional wisdom that they mindlessly follow the herd misses a critical point: Voters also look at polling results as a way to garner information they need to make up their minds.

Apparently you ARE the doubt.  Researchers in these things take it as a matter of established fact that people tend to conform to the majority opinion.  Polls stating that candidate X is winning will make more people vote for candidate X.
Title: Re: Why polling is AFU this time
Post by: asechrest on October 24, 2016, 12:11:47 PM
Yes, but which way are the polls skewed.

Why did I turn on CNN for 30 seconds today and hear all about the ABC poll placing Hillary at +12 and nothing about the IBD/TPP poll placing Donald at +2?  One of them is skewed. 



Apparently you ARE the doubt.  Researchers in these things take it as a matter of established fact that people tend to conform to the majority opinion.  Polls stating that candidate X is winning will make more people vote for candidate X.

Interesting paper. Thanks for posting.
Title: Re: Why polling is AFU this time
Post by: You Only Live Twice on October 24, 2016, 12:45:17 PM
Rule #2: Whenever there is any doubt there is no doubt.
Title: Re: Why polling is AFU this time
Post by: bflynn on October 25, 2016, 09:12:54 PM
I was just reminded - in 1979, the polls predicted Carter 47% vs Reagan's 37%.  Of course, that left 16% undecided vs about 7.7% today. 
Title: Re: Why polling is AFU this time
Post by: Lucifer on October 26, 2016, 05:48:23 AM
I was just reminded - in 1979, the polls predicted Carter 47% vs Reagan's 37%.  Of course, that left 16% undecided vs about 7.7% today.

 Standby............Someone will reply "Trump is no Reagan!" shortly........

 And yes, you are right about 1979.
Title: Re: Why polling is AFU this time
Post by: Lucifer on October 26, 2016, 06:59:14 AM
http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2016/10/25/nbc_s_1980_election_night_coverage_shock_dismay_and_faulty_polling
Title: Re: Why polling is AFU this time
Post by: Number7 on October 26, 2016, 08:26:13 AM
The current crop of corrupt pigs handling these polls have two agendas.
First is to depress turnout by making it seem like the pile of pigshit in a pant suit is so far ahead that showing up to vote is a waste of time.
Second is setting people up to accept the MASSIVE fraud being perpetrated in this election, by claiming the pile of pigshit in a pant  uit is so far ahead that the pathetically fraudulent outcome isn't widely rejected.
Title: Re: Why polling is AFU this time
Post by: Bob Noel on October 26, 2016, 08:29:27 AM
The current crop of corrupt pigs handling these polls have two agendas.
First is to depress turnout by making it seem like the pile of pigshit in a pant suit is so far ahead that showing up to vote is a waste of time.
Second is setting people up to accept the MASSIVE fraud being perpetrated in this election, by claiming the pile of pigshit in a pant  uit is so far ahead that the pathetically fraudulent outcome isn't widely rejected.

Well, it is a monumentally stupid voter who thinks that the election is only about the Presidential election.