PILOT SPIN

Spin Zone => Spin Zone => Topic started by: asechrest on November 08, 2016, 10:56:54 AM

Title: Florida
Post by: asechrest on November 08, 2016, 10:56:54 AM
I am hearing reports of extremely high Latino turnout in FL. More Latinos have early voted than voted in the entire 2012 election.
Title: Re: Florida
Post by: LevelWing on November 08, 2016, 11:20:36 AM
Perhaps it is true that there is higher latino turn out, but even if that's true, there's also higher Republican turn out so far based on what's been reported. It'll be interesting to see how those numbers play into who wins Florida.
Title: Re: Florida
Post by: Lucifer on November 08, 2016, 11:21:30 AM

Also today there is a poll out among Latinos saying they overwhelmingly support immigration control and secure borders.
Title: Re: Florida
Post by: LevelWing on November 08, 2016, 11:22:11 AM
Also today there is a poll out among Latinos saying they overwhelmingly support immigration control and secure borders.
Link? I'd be interested in seeing that.
Title: Re: Florida
Post by: Mase on November 08, 2016, 11:33:37 AM
A lot of Florida Cubans are very very opposed to what Obama has done.
Title: Re: Florida
Post by: Lucifer on November 08, 2016, 12:15:37 PM
Link? I'd be interested in seeing that.

Rush was talking about it while I was driving.  I'll see if I can find it.
Title: Re: Florida
Post by: Lucifer on November 08, 2016, 12:20:43 PM
A lot of Florida Cubans are very very opposed to what Obama has done.

Yep.

On another note, a friend of the family is Mexican and he and his family are middle class working, and here legally.  A number of times he has told me how fed up they (his friends and family) are with open borders and illegal immigration. 

 I've asked him just how the Mexican American community views recent politics, and he tells me not to believe the dems, that they want change and are backing the conservatives.
Title: Re: Florida
Post by: Rush on November 08, 2016, 01:38:09 PM
Yep.

On another note, a friend of the family is Mexican and he and his family are middle class working, and here legally.  A number of times he has told me how fed up they (his friends and family) are with open borders and illegal immigration. 

 I've asked him just how the Mexican American community views recent politics, and he tells me not to believe the dems, that they want change and are backing the conservatives.

My Hispanic friends are like that too. And my Cuban friend hates the left, she was born in Cuba and says anybody who has lived in a collectivist economy (socialism, communism) knows better than to back Democrats as they see where it ends up.  She's for Trump.
Title: Re: Florida
Post by: asechrest on November 08, 2016, 01:48:56 PM
Yep.

On another note, a friend of the family is Mexican and he and his family are middle class working, and here legally.  A number of times he has told me how fed up they (his friends and family) are with open borders and illegal immigration. 

 I've asked him just how the Mexican American community views recent politics, and he tells me not to believe the dems, that they want change and are backing the conservatives.

I do not believe that the Mexican American community will support Trump in numbers more significant than the past two elections. My significant other is Mexican, so I know a lot of them. The Cubans may support Trump, perhaps 50% of them or so, because they tend to vote more Conservative and they are pissed with Obama vis a vis Cuba. But I actually think we might see them less supportive of Trump than of previous GOP candidates. But I could be wrong.

Unfortunately for Trump, fully 1/3 of the record Latino early vote in FL are voters that did not turn out in 2012. And the non-Cuban Latino population has been growing. A significant chunk of those new early voters are likely not Cubans (which vote reliably in large numbers). They're newly-registered, younger, etc.

I think this is bad news for Trump in FL. (But it's good news for McCain, as usual.)

We'll see!
Title: Re: Florida
Post by: LevelWing on November 08, 2016, 01:56:04 PM
Unfortunately for Trump, fully 1/3 of the record Latino early vote in FL are voters that did not turn out in 2012. And the non-Cuban Latino population has been growing. A significant chunk of those new early voters are likely not Cubans (which vote reliably in large numbers). They're newly-registered, younger, etc.
What evidence do you have to support this? Or is this just your thoughts?
Title: Re: Florida
Post by: asechrest on November 08, 2016, 01:59:42 PM
What evidence do you have to support this? Or is this just your thoughts?

Which part? The part that is more opinion and less fact is my assessment of the demographics of the 1/3 Latino early voters who did not vote in 2012.
Title: Re: Florida
Post by: LevelWing on November 08, 2016, 02:00:47 PM
Which part? The part that is more opinion and less fact is my assessment of the demographics of the 1/3 Latino early voters who did not vote in 2012.
That's the part I was asking about, thanks for clearing that up. We'll see how it turns out but I still think Trump will take Florida.
Title: Re: Florida
Post by: asechrest on November 08, 2016, 03:52:17 PM
Exit polls are showing 6% increased minority turnout this election. Which candidate is motivating that?
Title: Re: Florida
Post by: Little Joe on November 08, 2016, 04:12:36 PM
Exit polls are showing 6% increased minority turnout this election. Which candidate is motivating that?
I suspect it depends on the minority, unless you are saying all minorities are homogeneous.

I think Cubans are motivated by the current administration cozying up to Cuba.
Other Latino's are probably being motivated as a repudiation of Trump's border defense and illegal alien positions.
I don't believe blacks are voting in larger numbers.
Many women (If you call them a minority) are being motivated by Trumps P****Y tape.

Title: Re: Florida
Post by: asechrest on November 08, 2016, 04:17:37 PM
I suspect it depends on the minority, unless you are saying all minorities are homogeneous.

I think Cubans are motivated by the current administration cozying up to Cuba.
Other Latino's are probably being motivated as a repudiation of Trump's border defense and illegal alien positions.
I don't believe blacks are voting in larger numbers.
Many women (If you call them a minority) are being motivated by Trumps P****Y tape.

To be clear my comment was specific to FL. The blurb I read didn't give the breakdown of that 6%. But I agree with what you're saying.
Title: Re: Florida
Post by: nddons on November 08, 2016, 08:13:02 PM
I do not believe that the Mexican American community will support Trump in numbers more significant than the past two elections. My significant other is Mexican, so I know a lot of them. The Cubans may support Trump, perhaps 50% of them or so, because they tend to vote more Conservative and they are pissed with Obama vis a vis Cuba. But I actually think we might see them less supportive of Trump than of previous GOP candidates. But I could be wrong.

Unfortunately for Trump, fully 1/3 of the record Latino early vote in FL are voters that did not turn out in 2012. And the non-Cuban Latino population has been growing. A significant chunk of those new early voters are likely not Cubans (which vote reliably in large numbers). They're newly-registered, younger, etc.

I think this is bad news for Trump in FL. (But it's good news for McCain, as usual.)

We'll see!

So why do legal Mexican Americans support unfettered illegal immigration from Central and Soith America?   
Title: Re: Florida
Post by: Anthony on November 09, 2016, 02:11:27 AM
Trump wins Florida!  Take that Progressives!
Title: Re: Florida
Post by: Number7 on November 09, 2016, 09:03:27 AM
I told all of my friends and family to watch the counties that hug I-4 from Tampa/Saint Petersburg to Daytona and however those counties go should tell us how Florida would go and almost be a mirror of the rest of the election.
When the Donald won Florida it was over in my mind.
Title: Re: Florida
Post by: asechrest on November 09, 2016, 09:16:02 AM

I was wrong about the overall FL Latino vote. Trump bested Romney's 2012 Latino numbers. Cubans went 51%-47% for Trump, which helped that overall number. In aggregate, Latinos went 67-31 for Hillary, which I consider to be a very good showing for Trump. Non-Cubans still well over 70% for Clinton.

Looks like Democrats also severely underestimated the white working class vote.

FL Latino numbers here (http://www.latinodecisions.com/files/2714/7863/4905/Florida_Xtabs.pdf).
Title: Re: Florida
Post by: Little Joe on November 09, 2016, 10:29:48 AM
I was wrong about the overall FL Latino vote. Trump bested Romney's 2012 Latino numbers. Cubans went 51%-47% for Trump, which helped that overall number. In aggregate, Latinos went 67-31 for Hillary, which I consider to be a very good showing for Trump. Non-Cubans still well over 70% for Clinton.

Looks like Democrats also severely underestimated the white working class vote.

FL Latino numbers here (http://www.latinodecisions.com/files/2714/7863/4905/Florida_Xtabs.pdf).
The Cuban/Latino work ethic is amazing.  The other Latinos vote Democrat.
Title: Re: Florida
Post by: asechrest on November 09, 2016, 11:50:19 AM
The Cuban/Latino work ethic is amazing.  The other Latinos vote Democrat.

I don't follow your two sentences. In my experience most of the Latinos have incredible work ethic.
Title: Re: Florida
Post by: Little Joe on November 09, 2016, 12:12:05 PM
I don't follow your two sentences. In my experience most of the Latinos have incredible work ethic.
Yeah, that didn't come out right.  I was looking for another word, like honor, ambition, self respect, integrity, self reliance etc...
But the Mexicans do work hard and cheap.