PILOT SPIN
Spin Zone => Spin Zone => Topic started by: Johnh on January 07, 2016, 01:33:26 PM
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Assuming they are not lying again, and the DPRK really has successfully tested an H-Bomb, what should the world do?
What should WE do?
Should we do anything besides wait for them to use it?
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Since Obama and Clinton/Kerry have basically repeated the utterly ineffective approach that both Clinton and Bush took with the Nork's, in their dealings with Iran, the real question is what do we do when the Mullah's announce they have detonated an H-Bomb?
Of course, they probably won't test it underground, and we won't need to wait for an 'announcement' - we'll know when they blow up Jerusalem, or NYC.
'Gimp
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I just heard Kerry comment on how we need to get together with S. Korea to consider options, due to the seriousness of this matter - or words to that effect.
Sounded incredibly weak and ineffectual to me, but not sure what the realistic options are in any case.
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Since Obama and Clinton/Kerry have basically repeated the utterly ineffective approach that both Clinton and Bush took with the Nork's, in their dealings with Iran, the real question is what do we do when the Mullah's announce they have detonated an H-Bomb?
Of course, they probably won't test it underground, and we won't need to wait for an 'announcement' - we'll know when they blow up Jerusalem, or NYC.
'Gimp
I think it's unlikely to see Iran use a weapon on foreign soil. They aren't stupid, they know what would happen. I'd be more concerned about them or North Korea selling the technology to a group (such as ISIS or another group) that would then make a dirty bomb and use that.
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Since Obama and Clinton/Kerry have basically repeated the utterly ineffective approach that both Clinton and Bush took with the Nork's, in their dealings with Iran, the real question is what do we do when the Mullah's announce they have detonated an H-Bomb?
Of course, they probably won't test it underground, and we won't need to wait for an 'announcement' - we'll know when they blow up Jerusalem, or NYC.
'Gimp
I think it's unlikely to see Iran use a weapon on foreign soil. They aren't stupid, they know what would happen. I'd be more concerned about them or North Korea selling the technology to a group (such as ISIS or another group) that would then make a dirty bomb and use that.
That is essentially what I meant, whether they use it themselves or via proxy the deed is done.
And I don't think they do know what would happen, I don't think any of us do. Mutually Assured Destruction between Uncle Sam and Soviet Onion was one thing, limited nuclear exchange won't happen, leaving conventional exchange and/or sanctions - well la tee da.
I don't think a dirty suitcase nuke going off in Times Square or Tel Aviv tomorrow would generate a real reaction from us under current leadership. Bloviating in front of the mutual masturbation society occasionally known as the UN or shedding crocodile tears on TV doesn't count. But then I've been a pessimist disappointed in Shock and Awe (lame) for more than a decade now.
'Gimp
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I suspect the N Koreans aren't lying, but what they're calling an H bomb isn't what we think of. To us ab H bomb is a fusion device far more powerful than the fission bombs the NKs have been detonating. However, there is a method for putting some hydrogen, deuterium I think, into the core of the device to accelerate the fission reaction. It's one of the ways you can reduce the size of the device so it fits on a missile.
If so the test was an abject failure. It produced less explosive energy than their last attempt, which had a smaller yield than the bomb we dropped on Hiroshima. That said, dear leader wasn't lying. His boys did detonate a nuclear bomb that had hydrogen in it.
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I suspect the N Koreans aren't lying, but what they're calling an H bomb isn't what we think of. To us ab H bomb is a fusion device far more powerful than the fission bombs the NKs have been detonating. However, there is a method for putting some hydrogen, deuterium I think, into the core of the device to accelerate the fission reaction. It's one of the ways you can reduce the size of the device so it fits on a missile.
If so the test was an abject failure. It produced less explosive energy than their last attempt, which had a smaller yield than the bomb we dropped on Hiroshima. That said, dear leader wasn't lying. His boys did detonate a nuclear bomb that had hydrogen in it.
Plus he painted a big 'H' on the side or it.
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I think it's unlikely to see Iran use a weapon on foreign soil. They aren't stupid, they know what would happen. I'd be more concerned about them or North Korea selling the technology to a group (such as ISIS or another group) that would then make a dirty bomb and use that.
Why would they do that? What would they get out of it? They can't be that hard up for cash and it would only take a week or less to solidly conclude where this bomb came from. A secret that enormous can't be kept long. Once the source of this tech, materials becomes known, what do you think happens next?
Iran and North Korea are all about survival and growth. This strategy denies them both. They both have developed nuclear programs for one reason and one reason only. To keep the USA out of their countries. It is the only threat that gives us pause. The whole world watched as we rolled over Iraq and Saddam Hussein in record time. Both of these countries have a pretty good idea how they would fare. That's why they have gone looking for an antidote.
Honestly, the North Koreans have to ultimately answer to the Chinese. The Chinese will not be happy if a nuclear event happens due to the aid of the North Koreans. The Chinese economy and strength is now dependent on world stability, not instability.
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I suspect the N Koreans aren't lying, but what they're calling an H bomb isn't what we think of. To us ab H bomb is a fusion device far more powerful than the fission bombs the NKs have been detonating. However, there is a method for putting some hydrogen, deuterium I think, into the core of the device to accelerate the fission reaction. It's one of the ways you can reduce the size of the device so it fits on a missile.
If so the test was an abject failure. It produced less explosive energy than their last attempt, which had a smaller yield than the bomb we dropped on Hiroshima. That said, dear leader wasn't lying. His boys did detonate a nuclear bomb that had hydrogen in it.
If you're talking about a "boosted fission" weapon, generally, you're talking about pumping in tritium, not deuterium. Tritium (the unstable isotope of hydrogen with 2 neutrons) is a fantastic neutron source, as it releases them spontaneously and rapidly. Deuterium is completely stable by itself.
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If you're talking about a "boosted fission" weapon, generally, you're talking about pumping in tritium, not deuterium. Tritium (the unstable isotope of hydrogen with 2 neutrons) is a fantastic neutron source, as it releases them spontaneously and rapidly. Deuterium is completely stable by itself.
I stand corrected, thank you.
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Why would they do that? What would they get out of it? They can't be that hard up for cash and it would only take a week or less to solidly conclude where this bomb came from. A secret that enormous can't be kept long. Once the source of this tech, materials becomes known, what do you think happens next?
Iran and North Korea are all about survival and growth. This strategy denies them both. They both have developed nuclear programs for one reason and one reason only. To keep the USA out of their countries. It is the only threat that gives us pause. The whole world watched as we rolled over Iraq and Saddam Hussein in record time. Both of these countries have a pretty good idea how they would fare. That's why they have gone looking for an antidote.
Iran would do it to as a means to strike the west. The Iranians can probably disguise it well enough to not trace it back to them, or at least to the point to be able to deny it. I don't think North Korea is in this for growth, unless it's the South. Iran wants to expand their influence. Iran selling the technology, even a degraded version of it, achieves their strategy of growing their influence and striking at the evil west.
Honestly, the North Koreans have to ultimately answer to the Chinese. The Chinese will not be happy if a nuclear event happens due to the aid of the North Koreans. The Chinese economy and strength is now dependent on world stability, not instability.
I agree. The last thing the Chinese want is a war on their border.
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I agree. The last thing the Chinese want is a war on their border.
It didn't seem to bother them much in the 50's.
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I agree. The last thing the Chinese want is a war on their border.
The last thing the Chinese want is for N.K. To lose the war and have us and S.K. On their border.
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It didn't seem to bother them much in the 50's.
That's true Bob. I have always viewed the Chinese as a kind of evil, wild card. You just never know. However, I think they've gotten used to economic prosperity, especially the elite leadership. I don't think they want nukes going off near them or the turmoil of border wars.
'Gimp may have to go over there with a few of his buddies in their CJ-6's. :D
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Since Obama and Clinton/Kerry have basically repeated the utterly ineffective approach that both Clinton and Bush took with the Nork's, in their dealings with Iran, the real question is what do we do when the Mullah's announce they have detonated an H-Bomb?
Of course, they probably won't test it underground, and we won't need to wait for an 'announcement' - we'll know when they blow up Jerusalem, or NYC.
'Gimp
I think it's unlikely to see Iran use a weapon on foreign soil. They aren't stupid, they know what would happen. I'd be more concerned about them or North Korea selling the technology to a group (such as ISIS or another group) that would then make a dirty bomb and use that.
Which is the same thing.
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Iran would do it to as a means to strike the west. The Iranians can probably disguise it well enough to not trace it back to them, or at least to the point to be able to deny it. I don't think North Korea is in this for growth, unless it's the South. Iran wants to expand their influence. Iran selling the technology, even a degraded version of it, achieves their strategy of growing their influence and striking at the evil west.
How does "striking the west" covertly serve their interest in any way?? I'm at a loss here. If nobody knows they are at the heart of this attack, how does it help? If everybody knows they are the source of the attack, how does it help?
Who are they going to sell this tech to?? They don't have loads of friends and anybody in the region would likely want to use this tech against them. If some Palestinian group were to somehow find a way to get a nuke to Israel, everybody would know where it came from. Tehran would be radioactive and uninhabitable the next day.
Iran and North Korea want nukes to keep people out of their countries and be regarded as big shots in their neighborhoods. That's all there really is to it.
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Iran would do it to as a means to strike the west. The Iranians can probably disguise it well enough to not trace it back to them, or at least to the point to be able to deny it. I don't think North Korea is in this for growth, unless it's the South. Iran wants to expand their influence. Iran selling the technology, even a degraded version of it, achieves their strategy of growing their influence and striking at the evil west.
How does "striking the west" covertly serve their interest in any way?? I'm at a loss here. If nobody knows they are at the heart of this attack, how does it help? If everybody knows they are the source of the attack, how does it help?
Who are they going to sell this tech to?? They don't have loads of friends and anybody in the region would likely want to use this tech against them. If some Palestinian group were to somehow find a way to get a nuke to Israel, everybody would know where it came from. Tehran would be radioactive and uninhabitable the next day.
Iran and North Korea want nukes to keep people out of their countries and be regarded as big shots in their neighborhoods. That's all there really is to it.
I think you are assuming that the leaders of Iran and North Korea are rational and have some of the same values you have. I'm not particularly interested in assuming that your view of their motives is correct.
Turn it around a bit - consider your view of the US invading Iraq. How did that serve the US interests? And yet, it happened, didn't it.
A NK supported nuke attack on the US or Israel could serve their interest by weakening an enemy. Even if it wasn't known that NK was involved, it would still weaken an enemy.
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Turn it around a bit - consider your view of the US invading Iraq. How did that serve the US interests? And yet, it happened, didn't it.
The invasion of Iraq was all about serving our self interest. We were supposed to go in there, kick Saddam out, be greeted with flowers and kisses, quickly set up a US style democracy and some sort of republic. Then pay for reconstruction with the oil money, be allowed for our corporations to have access to the oil, so that we could finally start pumping our oil out from under their sand and be a shining example of peace, prosperity progress in the Middle East. After that, the other countries were supposed to follow suit and there would be this new, enlightened Middle East that was ready to fully join the 21st century.
We were supposed to get peace and security in the Middle East, our corporations were supposed to set up shop there and make billions in profits, the threat to Israel was to be reduced and we were to be guaranteed a stable flow of cheap energy well into the 21st Century. The only problem was, we suck a geo political strategy and we're lousy nation builders. We tried to do it as cheap as possible, with no back up plans, poor planning and morons in charge. The result is the disaster we live with now.
A NK supported nuke attack on the US or Israel could serve their interest by weakening an enemy. Even if it wasn't known that NK was involved, it would still weaken an enemy.
I think quite the opposite would happen. A nuclear strike on America would galvanize us, bring us together and focus us on revenge. We would quickly be stronger than we ever have been. The Chinese would be pissed and have no choice but sacrifice them. The communist powers in North Korea would be removed and much of the country in flames and the would have to sit by and let it happen.
I can't see how, or why North Korea would ever support an attack on Israel and how that would in any way make us weaker. You'll have to help me with that idea. Again, most of the western modern world would quickly rally to Israel's defense and North Korea would be put in check.
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I think quite the opposite would happen. A nuclear strike on America would galvanize us, bring us together and focus us on revenge. We would quickly be stronger than we ever have been. The Chinese would be pissed and have no choice but sacrifice them. The communist powers in North Korea would be removed and much of the country in flames and the would have to sit by and let it happen.
I think this is a good prediction of what might happen.
But...
I can't see how, or why North Korea would ever support an attack on Israel and how that would in any way make us weaker. You'll have to help me with that idea. Again, most of the western modern world would quickly rally to Israel's defense and North Korea would be put in check.
I'm not so sure about this. I don't believe the North Koreans, or the Arabs use the same sort of logic that we do. Their risk reward system is so far from what we understand that trying to predict their reactions is almost impossible.
This could also explain why we were so wrong in the first part of your post, (which I cut out for brevity). Our Western minds can't seem to grasp what makes them do or want the things they do or want.
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This could also explain why we were so wrong in the first part of your post, (which I cut out for brevity). Our Western minds can't seem to grasp what makes them do or want the things they do or want.
worse, many people don't understand that different people have different motives and values. Many people cling to the belief that people (and leaders) in other nations think the same way they do.
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This could also explain why we were so wrong in the first part of your post, (which I cut out for brevity). Our Western minds can't seem to grasp what makes them do or want the things they do or want.
worse, many people don't understand that different people have different motives and values. Many people cling to the belief that people (and leaders) in other nations think the same way they do.
Well we are talking about North Korea. If we were talking about Iran, it would be different, but North Korea is an open book and an age old story. Tyrants, dictators and communists we fully understand. There is little to no mystery about what motivates them and what their objectives are. We know these people well.
Iran is a bit od a wild card as it has a religious under pinning. Religion, particularly Islam, can go sideways on you, that's why Iran requires much deeper thought and consideration as well and study then does North Korea. One country has a "Dear Leader" and the other claims to serve a higher power.
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This could also explain why we were so wrong in the first part of your post, (which I cut out for brevity). Our Western minds can't seem to grasp what makes them do or want the things they do or want.
worse, many people don't understand that different people have different motives and values. Many people cling to the belief that people (and leaders) in other nations think the same way they do.
Well we are talking about North Korea. If we were talking about Iran, it would be different, but North Korea is an open book and an age old story. Tyrants, dictators and communists we fully understand. There is little to no mystery about what motivates them and what their objectives are. We know these people well.
Iran is a bit od a wild card as it has a religious under pinning. Religion, particularly Islam, can go sideways on you, that's why Iran requires much deeper thought and consideration as well and study then does North Korea. One country has a "Dear Leader" and the other claims to serve a higher power.
Good thing Obama has Valerie Jarrett to "advise" him.
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Good thing Obama has Valerie Jarrett to "advise" him.
Yes, being Iranian she can give him an unbiased view. ::)