PILOT SPIN
Spin Zone => Spin Zone => Topic started by: Bob Noel on March 11, 2016, 06:58:44 AM
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So, let's consider a population of a million people. Or N million people where N > 1, if it matters.
Let's put aside the (very small, hopefully) portion of the population that have an adverse reaction to a vaccine for <disease X> (this reaction is not necessarily known prior to the vaccination)
In a hypothetical case where everyone except for 1000 people get vaccinated, what risk to the vaccinated population is presented by the 1000 unvaccinated people?
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None. And that's what Pharma companies ignore and force the ignorant lawmakers to push for 100% compliance.
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None. And that's what Pharma companies ignore and force the ignorant lawmakers to push for 100% compliance.
I do not think that is accurate.
I don't know enough to get into the math, but the risk to the unvaccinated population is not zero, if we're defining "risk" as the potential for a vaccinated individual to catch a communicable disease from the unvaccinated. This is primarily because no vaccine is 100% effective even in the healthy, and because some of the vaccinated will have compromised immune systems.
However, I think with a vaccination rate of 99.9% as given in the OP, the risk of the disease spreading into a big problem is very low, thanks to herd immunity. (And the anti-vaxxers are free-riding off of the group's herd immunity.)
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100% compliance is not required, but the closer you get the better.
The concept is "herd immunity". The reason to push for 100% compliance is that some people will have adverse reactions to vaccines, and if those without those reactions all have the vaccine, then the odds of that small number of people getting the disease drop dramatically. If there's not a population of hosts for the disease to spread to (unvaccinated), any outbreak will burn out very quickly.
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You could probably model how many people aren't vaccinated to get the outbreaks we're seeing. I can't honestly say how many it is. I just think it the height of stupidity to needlessly suffer infectious diseases.
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You could probably model how many people aren't vaccinated to get the outbreaks we're seeing. I can't honestly say how many it is. I just think it the height of stupidity to needlessly suffer infectious diseases.
I had an adverse reaction to an early vaccine, and I was "lucky" enough to go through Measles, Mumps and Rubella the hard way. Would never subject my kid to any of these three, let alone all of them, by withholding MMR vaccine.
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You could probably model how many people aren't vaccinated to get the outbreaks we're seeing. I can't honestly say how many it is. I just think it the height of stupidity to needlessly suffer infectious diseases.
I agree that getting vaccinated is the smart thing (unless you know you will have a serious adverse reaction... like potentially fatal).
I'm more thinking about how much risk the unvaccinated population presents to the rest of the population. Obviously, being unvaccinated creates risk those people.
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I agree that getting vaccinated is the smart thing (unless you know you will have a serious adverse reaction... like potentially fatal).
I'm more thinking about how much risk the unvaccinated population presents to the rest of the population. Obviously, being unvaccinated creates risk those people.
Based on some quick research, the risk of the disease spreading beyond a small group in a 99.9% vaccinated population is extremely low. Which doesn't mean the risk of a non-vaxxed person infecting a vaccinated person is zero.
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You could probably model how many people aren't vaccinated to get the outbreaks we're seeing. I can't honestly say how many it is. I just think it the height of stupidity to needlessly suffer infectious diseases.
Question - how would the known characteristic of viruses to mutate in the unvaccinated population affect the risk? If there were a (assumed small) population of non-vaccinated folks, is there a measurable threat that a virus would mutate and then affect the population as a whole?
Gary
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Question - how would the known characteristic of viruses to mutate in the unvaccinated population affect the risk? If there were a (assumed small) population of non-vaccinated folks, is there a measurable threat that a virus would mutate and then affect the population as a whole?
Gary
a related question would be: is that risk (see above question) greater or less than the risk of a vaccine-resistant variant arising due (in part) to the use of the vaccine?
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I agree that getting vaccinated is the smart thing (unless you know you will have a serious adverse reaction... like potentially fatal).
I'm more thinking about how much risk the unvaccinated population presents to the rest of the population. Obviously, being unvaccinated creates risk those people.
I met a young man who became sterile as a result of a vaccine. He was 29.
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I met a young man who became sterile as a result of a vaccine. He was 29.
What kind of vaccine does a man get at 29?
My dad became sterile when he got the mumps after I got the mumps as a kid and gave it to him. Shit happens.
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I met a young man who became sterile as a result of a vaccine. He was 29.
Since no one denies occasional adverse effects from vaccinations, what is the point of bringing up a single anecdote?
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I met a young man who became sterile as a result of a vaccine. He was 29.
That wasn't a real vaccine.
That was part of a plot to sterilize young black men by giving sterilization drugs disguised as vaccines.
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So, let's consider a population of a million people. Or N million people where N > 1, if it matters.
Let's put aside the (very small, hopefully) portion of the population that have an adverse reaction to a vaccine for <disease X> (this reaction is not necessarily known prior to the vaccination)
In a hypothetical case where everyone except for 1000 people get vaccinated, what risk to the vaccinated population is presented by the 1000 unvaccinated people?
Very few vaccines are 100% effective. MMR is about 93% effective.
One of the costs to society is that it is possible to virtually wipe out diseases through universal vaccination. But without universal vaccination, the strain can continue and mutate to become resistant to the vaccines.
On the other hand, universal vaccination causes the weak that would normally be weeded out of the gene pool to flourish.
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That wasn't a real vaccine.
That was part of a plot to sterilize young black men by giving sterilization drugs disguised as vaccines.
Hehe!
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That wasn't a real vaccine.
That was part of a plot to sterilize young black men by giving sterilization drugs disguised as vaccines.
C'mon.
Let Jaybird deliver his own punchline in his own time! Just rude to jump ahead like that! ;D
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That wasn't a real vaccine.
That was part of a plot to sterilize young black men by giving sterilization drugs disguised as vaccines.
He was Caucasian. He was a Marine. The vaccine he received was AVIP, Anthrax Vaccine Immunization Program.
For some odd reason, I had this document in my Google Drive - didn't remember what it was so I opened it; it's relevant to this discussion so, I'll just quote it here:
Lack of TSGLI Coverage for Service members with Adverse Reactions to Vaccines
LCpl Josef Lopez is a Marine from Springfield, Missouri who in September 2006 took a
DoD administered smallpox vaccination just prior to a deployment to Iraq. About a week after his
arrival in Iraq, Lopez suffered numbness in his legs followed by an inability to stand or urinate and
complete paralysis and he then went into a coma for a period of time, all of which were due to a rare
adverse reaction to the smallpox vaccine. He was then medically evacuated from Iraq to an Army
hospital in Landstuhl, Germany and then to the National Naval Medical Center at Bethesda, MD
where he remained for six weeks. He later endured multiple hospitalizations and physical therapy
treatments in his native Missouri.
LCpl Lopez was wheelchair-bound for over one year and had to use a urine bag due to
paralysis to the bladder and experienced severe drowsiness as a side effect of the medications
prescribed for the leg and bladder problems. During his period in a wheelchair, Lopez completed
the Marine Corps Marathon in Washington, DC and with a specially-made hand cycle and still
maintains his fighting spirit throughout this adversity. Although he is now able to walk in a limited
capacity when not on medications, he does so with a bad limp and is unable to stand for long
periods of time. He still must use a urine bag 24 hours per day and must take drowsiness-inducing
medications to control spasms in his legs which resulted from his reaction to the smallpox vaccine.
He was medically retired from the Marine Corps on June 30 and was given an 80% disability rating
by the VA and a 70% disability rating by the DoD.
At the time of his injury, LCpl Lopez applied for the Traumatic Service member Group Life
Insurance (TSGLI) benefit. The TSGLI program was enacted by Congress in 2005 and was
intended to provide a one time benefit of up to $100,000 dollars to service members who endured a
traumatic injury, whether in a combat zone or garrison environment. The benefit was also intended
to help service members and their families with immediate expenses related to the service member’s
injury and convalescence period.
The TSGLI benefit is modeled after the civilian insurance annuity known as accidental death
and dismemberment which generally applies to those who have some external force applied to their
bodies resulting in a loss of limb, eyesight, etc. There are also allocations within TSGLI for those
service members who have fallen into a coma due to their injury, experienced a traumatic brain
injury (TBI), suffered a loss of two or more of the so called Activities of Daily Living (ADL-
bathing, continence, dressing, eating, toileting and transferring) or who have experience other
specifically-named traumas. After Congress approved the TSGLI, the Veterans Administration
became the executive agent for the TSGLI benefit and established policies and procedures for the
dispensing of the benefit based on its interpretation of Congress’ intent in passing the legislation.
Although there are multiple provisions in the TSGLI coverages that apply to LCpl Lopez
and he should have received $75,000 for his injuries, his claim for TSGLI was denied by the Marine
Corps because of the VA Insurance Center’s policy of not extending the benefit for those who have
adverse reactions to medications or medical procedures. The VA Insurance Center has utilized a
clause in Section 1980A (b) (3) Title 38 USC, to exclude certain unspecified conditions or injuries
from TSGLI coverage. The VA Insurance Center argues that TSGLI is not the right vehicle or
mechanism for extending coverage to this category of service members and regards adverse vaccine
reactions as a medical condition vice a traumatic injury. The VA also feels that extending coverage
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in cases like Lopez’s would open a “pandora’s box,” as it were, to a host of other medical scenarios
that could be covered under the program that in turn might bankrupt it and jeopardize its future.
So, the TSGLI benefit currently does not apply to those service members who sustain a life
altering and permanent disability from adverse reactions sustained by taking vaccines (i.e.
smallpox) as a component of pre-deployment preparations for duty in a combat or imminent danger
zone or to those receiving the vaccine as a part of the accessions process. Those service members
suffering these severe adverse reactions often experience what can easily be cited as a traumatic
injury to include amputation, comas, paralysis, and loss of some or all of the so-called Activities of
Daily Living (ADL), all of which are covered items under current TSGLI regulations by the VA.
Despite repeated requests, the DoD has failed to identify how many service members have
been denied TSGLI claims for conditions and injuries related to adverse vaccine reactions.
However, statistics indicate that from 2000-2008, the DoD healthcare system initiated 4,431 vaccine
adverse event reports (VAER) with the Centers for Disease Control and the Food and Drug
Administration. This number accounts for both service members and their beneficiaries. The CBO
has placed an unofficial score on this bill at $7 million annually with a potential initial direct
spending cost of $24 million due to the retroactive nature of the bill to 2005.
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A while back vaccines weren't the big business they are now, and didn't really make their purveyors much money. When our society became litigious folks started suing their makers for real and imagined reactions. The biotech companies, which really weren't making that much from vaccines to begin with, prepared to stop making them altogether. The government stepped in and created the National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program, which functions in lieu of civil litigation. http://www.hrsa.gov/vaccinecompensation/ (http://www.hrsa.gov/vaccinecompensation/)
Vaccines can have adverse side effects, no one ever said they didn't. But the rate at which they do is very, very low, and the side effects are often less severe than the diseases against the vaccines prevent.