PILOT SPIN
Spin Zone => Spin Zone => Topic started by: Number7 on December 04, 2023, 09:01:55 PM
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When the commies at the Daily Mail UK admit President Trump is crushing the primary, one has to stop and consider how bad are the others doing.
Donald Trump on track to win 60% of votes cast in primary.
Can’t wait for joe to come tell us how this is because President Trump is such a bad person and terrible candidate.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12821383/Can-stop-New-poll-puts-Donald-Trump-track-win-60-votes-GOP-primary-five-times-nearest-rival-Ron-DeSantis.html
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Can’t wait for joe to come tell us how this is because President Trump is such a bad person and terrible candidate.
I don't know if I am the Joe you are talking about, but I never said that and won't now.
It's not BECAUSE he is such a bad person, it is IN SPITE of it.
Some people actually think that he will be able to match or exceed all the good things he did during his first term. I am not one of those people, but I am one of the people that thinks he could not possibly be as bad for the country as another Democrat administration.
If/when he gets the nomination, I will actively support and vote for him. But I'd prefer not to vote for someone because he is not as bad as the other guy. I wish there was someone I could vote for that I actually trust and respect. sigh
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I don't know if I am the Joe you are talking about, but I never said that and won't now.
It's not BECAUSE he is such a bad person, it is IN SPITE of it.
Some people actually think that he will be able to match or exceed all the good things he did during his first term. I am not one of those people, but I am one of the people that thinks he could not possibly be as bad for the country as another Democrat administration.
If/when he gets the nomination, I will actively support and vote for him. But I'd prefer not to vote for someone because he is not as bad as the other guy. I wish there was someone I could vote for that I actually trust and respect. sigh
You pretty much summed up what is wrong with politics in our country. We don't have good candidates, we have bad or worse to choose from.
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President Trump is an EXCELLENT candidate because he has huge support front the people.
The fact that people support him IS A HUGE THREAT to the swamp and is why the media and criminal cia, fbi, and treasonous doj are so deranged about him.
If the fucking criminals running the doj, cia, and treasonous fbi weren’t such inveterate liars, and psychotic criminals America would be in great shape as the policies of President Trump were moving our country in the best possible direction.
When the FUCK BAG, traitors ordered six states to stop counting votes at 11 pm on election night 2020 it was because a second Trump term would spell the end of the government sponsored organized crime syndicate looting out treasury under the direction of the scumbag soros and his master klaus schwab.
The antipathy of people like joe is the result of non stop bullshit lies fed to him by a corrupt media.
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You pretty much summed up what is wrong with politics in our country. We don't have good candidates, we have bad or worse to choose from.
We are captives of political parties. These parties control the voting, and make it impossible for ones outside of the party structure to run or get elected.
Take the democrats. They are clinging to running what is the worst president in modern history, and the party has structured it so he has no one opposing him.
Then we have the republicans. The establishment will spend record money and effort to defeat their front runner, who at this point has the momentum to win in a landslide. WTF? The establishment is desperately trying to get a candidate guaranteed to lose in a landslide.
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President Trump is an EXCELLENT candidate because he has huge support front the people.
The fact that people support him IS A HUGE THREAT to the swamp and is why the media and criminal cia, fbi, and treasonous doj are so deranged about him.
If the fucking criminals running the doj, cia, and treasonous fbi weren’t such inveterate liars, and psychotic criminals America would be in great shape as the policies of President Trump were moving our country in the best possible direction.
When the FUCK BAG, traitors ordered six states to stop counting votes at 11 pm on election night 2020 it was because a second Trump term would spell the end of the government sponsored organized crime syndicate looting out treasury under the direction of the scumbag soros and his master klaus schwab.
The antipathy of people like joe is the result of non stop bullshit lies fed to him by a corrupt media.
Trump is a once in a lifetime chance to delay and maybe partially reverse the march to complete tyranny that is underway by our bloated, malignant, corrupt government. Name any other candidate that has laid this out so plainly, and has a record as president already of attempting to keep his campaign promises against all opposition, has the balls to stand up to dictators like those of China, North Korea and Russia, and is willing to put his wealth, freedom and life on the line for a chance to try to save our nation.
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The establishment is so corrupt that an honest President is the ultimate threat.
Their servants in the media shape the narrative so perfectly that weak. Rains call into the trap of thinking their lies are true because they read it somewhere.
Then they run out places like here and repeat the brainwashing demanding we respect their bullshit because they said it.
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President Trump is an EXCELLENT candidate because he has huge support front the people.
He has huge support from his supporters.
https://www.newsnationnow.com/politics/poll-largest-percentage-americans-independents/
From the above article:
45% voters identify as R or lean R. (This includes those that identify as R PLUS the Independents that lean R)
44% identify as D or lean D. (This includes those that identify as D PLUS the Independents that lean D)
Assume Trump gets 60% of the first group and (a generous) 10% of the second group:
(0.6*0.45) + (0.1*0.44)
=.27+0.4
=.31 or 31% of the general electorate.
Even if he gets 90% of the first group, that is still only about 41% of the total.
I'll be happy if you can show me where I am wrong? Do you think he will get more than 10% of the liberal vote?
(It would take 90% of Rs and about 25% of Ds). Can he get that?
Yeah, I know; "but none of the other Rs can either.
The only wild card that I can see is if there is a legitimate 3rd party candidate.
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He has huge support from his supporters.
https://www.newsnationnow.com/politics/poll-largest-percentage-americans-independents/
From the above article:
45% voters identify as R or lean R. (This includes those that identify as R PLUS the Independents that lean R)
44% identify as D or lean D. (This includes those that identify as D PLUS the Independents that lean D)
Assume Trump gets 60% of the first group and (a generous) 10% of the second group:
(0.6*0.45) + (0.1*0.44)
=.27+0.4
=.31 or 31% of the general electorate.
Even if he gets 90% of the first group, that is still only about 41% of the total.
I'll be happy if you can show me where I am wrong? Do you think he will get more than 10% of the liberal vote?
(It would take 90% of Rs and about 25% of Ds). Can he get that?
Yeah, I know; "but none of the other Rs can either.
The only wild card that I can see is if there is a legitimate 3rd party candidate.
Now do the math for Biden. This should, hopefully, expose some dubious assumptions you relied upon.
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Interesting that the Democrats are currently in progress of selecting their Presidential candidate by not allowing anyone else on primary ballots and deselecting the Republican candidate by trying to keep the most popular candidate off of ballots. Politics in America today.
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He has huge support from his supporters.
https://www.newsnationnow.com/politics/poll-largest-percentage-americans-independents/
From the above article:
45% voters identify as R or lean R. (This includes those that identify as R PLUS the Independents that lean R)
44% identify as D or lean D. (This includes those that identify as D PLUS the Independents that lean D)
Assume Trump gets 60% of the first group and (a generous) 10% of the second group:
(0.6*0.45) + (0.1*0.44)
=.27+0.4
=.31 or 31% of the general electorate.
Even if he gets 90% of the first group, that is still only about 41% of the total.
I'll be happy if you can show me where I am wrong? Do you think he will get more than 10% of the liberal vote?
(It would take 90% of Rs and about 25% of Ds). Can he get that?
Yeah, I know; "but none of the other Rs can either.
The only wild card that I can see is if there is a legitimate 3rd party candidate.
I realize that Trump Derangement Syndrome runs hot and heavy in you.
Even so, the numbers quoted in the OP are offered by the UK Daily Mail which hates President Trump as much as you do. Expecting anything remotely objective out of you when President Trump is concerned is about as likely as getting the truth from the lesbian press secretary for senile joe.
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Now do the math for Biden. This should, hopefully, expose some dubious assumptions you relied upon.
I'll be happy if you can show me where I am wrong? Do you think he will get more than 10% of the liberal vote?
(It would take 90% of Rs and about 25% of Ds). Can he get that?
Ok. Which assumptions do you think are wrong and I'll do the math for Biden for you.
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Interesting that the Democrats are currently in progress of selecting their Presidential candidate by not allowing anyone else on primary ballots and deselecting the Republican candidate by trying to keep the most popular candidate off of ballots. Politics in America today.
Something occurred to me... They are keeping others off the democrat ballot to 1) usher in FJB is the candidate without opposition and 2) to allow democrats to change parties and vote for not-Trump in the primary without risk. If FJB had a democrat opponent, democrats would be forced to vote for FJB or the other person and could not vote for not-Trump. Of course we can expect a TON of non-Trump votes to suddenly appear after midnight on primary day.
It's kind of convoluted, but yet another way to ensure Trump is not the candidate.
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Ok. Which assumptions do you think are wrong and I'll do the math for Biden for you.
You postulated the percentage of votes that Trump is expected to get so now postulate the percentages for Biden. If you postulate percentages for Trump you must postulate a set for Biden to do a proper comparison. Then do the math for Biden.
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You postulated the percentage of votes that Trump is expected to get so now postulate the percentages for Biden. If you postulate percentages for Trump you must postulate a set for Biden to do a proper comparison. Then do the math for Biden.
So you have nothing to offer.
I gave my assumptions and asked that if you disagree with me then tell me what you disagree with.
"you are wrong" is not an answer.
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So you have nothing to offer.
I gave my assumptions and asked that if you disagree with me then tell me what you disagree with.
"you are wrong" is not an answer.
So you believe that at least 40% of Republicans and 100% of independents will vote for Biden?
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So you believe that at least 40% of Republicans and 100% of independents will vote for Biden?
Instead of telling me what I believe, why don't you tell me where you thing I am wrong. I wouldn't mind. Honest.
I was responding to #7's post. He said Trump had 60% support in the R. primary. That leaves 40% of Rs not supporting Trump.
But yeah, a lot of those that vote non-Trump in the primary would vote for Trump against Biden. I am one of those.
Polls suck. Statistics can lie. Believe whatever you want. I am afraid that if Trump gets the nomination, he will lose in the general again.
And I'm getting tired of losing instead of winning like Trump promised.
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Jim asked a question about what you believe. That’s quite different from telling you what you believe.
You say you’re afraid President Trump will lose the general “again.” Remember that he has never lost an election. You know that 2020 was stolen.
You know we are not in normal times. You know the machinations are underway as we speak to cheat and manipulate and do whatever is needed to keep the current elites in power. You know, even, that the RNC is trying to get rid of the man 60% of Rs want. And NOT because he can’t “win,” but precisely because he CAN, if millions of eyes are on the ballot counting.
The leftists/cabal want to get rid of Trump. The RNC, DNC, leftists and cabal do NOT WANT Trump in the White House. These are the people pissing away our blood and treasure with no signs of stopping. They’re silencing people who try to stop them. Does all this not tell you that Donald J. Trump is precisely the best option we have?
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Instead of telling me what I believe, why don't you tell me where you thing I am wrong.
Your post has the implicit assumption that 40% of Republicans and 100% of independents and 90% of Democrats will vote for Biden in the general election, not just the primaries. My point is that you made some inadvertent hidden assumptions about the votes that don't go to Trump. Some unknown percentage of D, R and I voters are going to sit out the presidential election. You didn't give any estimates for those for both candidates, so your math was incomplete.
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Ooh my hero! Biden says he’s only running to stop Trump. Bullshit his ego and wife are making him run.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/biden-heads-fundraising-sprint-ahead-125259539.html
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Your post has the implicit assumption that 40% of Republicans and 100% of independents and 90% of Democrats will vote for Biden in the general election, not just the primaries. My point is that you made some inadvertent hidden assumptions about the votes that don't go to Trump. Some unknown percentage of D, R and I voters are going to sit out the presidential election. You didn't give any estimates for those for both candidates, so your math was incomplete.
That's not at all what I said, but if you want to believe that is what I said I probably can't change your mind.
I got the 60% R from the article #7 posted. I postulated 90% R. But extrapolating numbers for the general from predicted results of a partisan primary is ridiculous on it's face. But that is what I was responding to, it was not my assertion.
I said nothing like 100% Independents for anything. The 45% (R and R leaning) and 44% (D and D leaning) numbers included Independents. And those were not my assumptions. They came from the article I linked. As Stan said earlier, you are shooting the messenger.
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Interesting that the Democrats are currently in progress of selecting their Presidential candidate by not allowing anyone else on primary ballots and deselecting the Republican candidate by trying to keep the most popular candidate off of ballots. Politics in America today.
We have the most corrupt political system across the board and with both parties that I've seen in my lifetime.
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you are shooting the messenger.
But what if the messenger has the message all wrong?
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But what if the messenger has the message all wrong?
What if you shoot the messenger because you didn't like what he said, but YOU were wrong?
To answer your question, if the messenger is wrong, point out to him what was wrong. Don't just say "you are wrong".
How can anyone be sure the other person is wrong about an election that is still about a year away?
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What if none of it fucking matters until we actually start to see some primaries take place. 8)
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What if none of it fucking matters until we actually start to see some primaries take place. 8)
Agreed.
But even then the loser will just claim the vote was rigged or pre-ordained.
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What if you shoot the messenger because you didn't like what he said, but YOU were wrong?
To answer your question, if the messenger is wrong, point out to him what was wrong. Don't just say "you are wrong".
How can anyone be sure the other person is wrong about an election that is still about a year away?
You seriously don't understand the dynamics involved in primaries vs general elections. And you are trying to tie the two together with some convoluted math to get the answer you want. Also, I believe you fail to see how national polling works.
Also, in presidential politics, it's not a national election, it's a state election. To actually gain any useful information the primaries have to be looked at on a state by state basis, as well as the general.
We elect presidents based upon the electoral college, not on popular vote (nationwide).
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Agreed.
But even then the loser will just claim the vote was rigged or pre-ordained.
So you are expecting RDS or Dick Cheney in heels to start claiming the primaries are rigged?
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We elect presidents based upon the electoral college, not on popular vote (nationwide).
This is exactly why I don't trust polls. Trump leads by x% nationally. So what? That kind of statement is meaningless for the general election. Trump leads the primaries by x% is also meaningless. And the population sampled, the means, and a lot of other factors need to be described. The poll has to be state-by-state to have any predictive power on the general election. You may get a general "feeling" but this far out and with questionable polling methods it says nothing at all. Add in the MSM spin on the poll and it says less than nothing. Add in the retribution to anyone who says that they are voting for Trump and you get less than that. (Refer to the fucktard prosecution getting the names of everyone who liked or retweeted a Trump tweet.)
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You seriously don't understand the dynamics involved in primaries vs general elections.
You seriously don't understand what I understand. I replied to a single claim and added a claim or two of my own to refute it. Who cares if Trump has a 60% lead among his own party this early. That doesn't mean shit as far as the general a year from now.
I didn't write an essay on the fundamentals of election mechanics. I wasn't the one that first tried to claim that polls of predicted primary results makes any difference or has any relevance to the general election.
And yes, elections are determined by electoral vote, not popular vote. You must have some sort of amnesia or mental decline if you seriously thought I didn't know that.
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You seriously don't understand what I understand. I replied to a single claim and added a claim or two of my own to refute it. Who cares if Trump has a 60% lead among his own party this early. That doesn't mean shit as far as the general a year from now.
I didn't write an essay on the fundamentals of election mechanics. I wasn't the one that first tried to claim that polls of predicted primary results makes any difference or has any relevance to the general election.
And yes, elections are determined by electoral vote, not popular vote. You must have some sort of amnesia or mental decline if you seriously thought I didn't know that.
No, just trying to work through your inane thought process.
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Instead of telling me what I believe, why don't you tell me where you thing I am wrong. I wouldn't mind. Honest.
I was responding to #7's post. He said Trump had 60% support in the R. primary. That leaves 40% of Rs not supporting Trump.
But yeah, a lot of those that vote non-Trump in the primary would vote for Trump against Biden. I am one of those.
Polls suck. Statistics can lie. Believe whatever you want. I am afraid that if Trump gets the nomination, he will lose in the general again.
And I'm getting tired of losing instead of winning like Trump promised.
You are looking at this like a liberal. The primary election cycle and the general election cycle are NOT a zero sum game. The OP had to do with the prediction that President Trump would capture over 60% of the Republican PRIMARY votes.
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You are looking at this like a liberal. The primary election cycle and the general election cycle are NOT a zero sum game. The OP had to do with the prediction that President Trump would capture over 60% of the Republican PRIMARY votes.
No, not looking at it like a liberal. Perhaps Lucifer is right about my "inane" thought process.
My only intended point (regardless of what I actually said) is that the results, or anticipated results, of a primary have little relevance to the general election that will happen many months later.
Trump is lucky. People here take what he says and interpret it to mean what they want it to mean.
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Perhaps Lucifer is right about my "inane" thought process.
Thanks
My only intended point (regardless of what I actually said) is that the results, or anticipated results, of a primary have little relevance to the general election that will happen many months later.
Now c'mon Joe. You were trying to go much deeper than that, until it was pointed out the flaws in your "logic".
Regardless, a lot can happen between now and the conventions. I still have my doubts the Trump will be the nominee, and even if FJB is the nominee, and even if he was to win, it would result in a President Harris.
And then there is Gavin Newsom.................
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Now c'mon Joe. You were trying to go much deeper than that, until it was pointed out the flaws in your "logic".
I don't remember conceding any flaws in my logic. Just in your misinterpretation of what I said.
Regardless, a lot can happen between now and the conventions. I still have my doubts the Trump will be the nominee, and even if FJB is the nominee, and even if he was to win, it would result in a President Harris.
And then there is Gavin Newsom.................
Agreed.
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even if FJB is the nominee, and even if he was to win, it would result in a President Harris.
And then there is Gavin Newsom.................
If Biden/Harris wins, I predict Biden will not last and it would indeed result in a President Harris.
Then she could possibly select Newsom as VP,
Then Harris will somehow be ousted, after about 2 years, and Newsom may be Pres for the next 10.
The only bright spot is that I will probably be dead by the end of his last term.
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If Biden/Harris wins, I predict Biden will not last and it would indeed result in a President Harris.
Then she could possibly select Newsom as VP,
Then Harris will somehow be ousted, after about 2 years, and Newsom may be Pres for the next 10.
The only bright spot is that I will probably be dead by the end of his last term.
The democrats hate Kamala, but they are stuck with her thanks to the regime. They have painted themselves into a corner with her.
But keep in mind, under DNC rules, after the convention the party can replace the nominee if needed. That also applies to his running mate. This is why the democrats are putting little effort into the primaries, and also keeping other contenders out of the primaries.