PILOT SPIN

Spin Zone => Spin Zone => Topic started by: EppyGA - White Christian Domestic Terrorist on August 05, 2024, 03:49:06 AM

Title: Buckle up.....
Post by: EppyGA - White Christian Domestic Terrorist on August 05, 2024, 03:49:06 AM
Might not be a good day to watch the markets
Title: Re: Buckle up.....
Post by: EppyGA - White Christian Domestic Terrorist on August 05, 2024, 04:17:57 AM
What time does the DOW stop trading today?  What's your guess?
Title: Re: Buckle up.....
Post by: Bob Noel on August 05, 2024, 04:40:21 AM
What time does the DOW stop trading today?  What's your guess?

4pm ET

Title: Re: Buckle up.....
Post by: Bob Noel on August 05, 2024, 04:41:53 AM
Might not be a good day to watch the markets

I think you mean "might not a good day to be in the markets"

But since I'm someone who is always confused about what causes the markets to swing up and down, what would be differeent about today?

Title: Re: Buckle up.....
Post by: Little Joe on August 05, 2024, 04:45:00 AM
4pm ET
I'll go out on a limb here and agree with this.

I suspect we will see an early (very big) drop, but then I foresee a turn around as people try to catch the falling knife.  This will delay the closing of the market, but I also see another big drop tomorrow.
Title: Re: Buckle up.....
Post by: Rush on August 05, 2024, 05:18:23 AM
I think you mean "might not a good day to be in the markets"

But since I'm someone who is always confused about what causes the markets to swing up and down, what would be differeent about today?

I don’t know anything.  But I heard tech stocks are crashing for some reason, like didn’t show enough profit in the quarterly report. Warren Buffet then sold a bunch of his tech stock which is causing everybody else to panic and sell and it’s dragging the whole market down.  That’s what I heard anyway but wthdik.
Title: Re: Buckle up.....
Post by: Username on August 05, 2024, 06:17:19 AM
WWIII, stock market crashing, rioting in the streets.  Thanks FJB.
Title: Re: Buckle up.....
Post by: Rush on August 05, 2024, 06:34:46 AM
WWIII, stock market crashing, rioting in the streets.  Thanks FJB.

The UK is lost. We are next.
Title: Re: Buckle up.....
Post by: Little Joe on August 05, 2024, 06:45:42 AM
I can't even log on to my brokerage accounts.  I suspect their servers are busy executing sell orders.

The last time this happened was Oct 19, 1987.
Title: Re: Buckle up.....
Post by: Bob Noel on August 05, 2024, 07:03:09 AM
so what's the trip wire on the Dow?

Title: Re: Buckle up.....
Post by: Username on August 05, 2024, 07:03:47 AM
The UK is lost. We are next.
When the politicians are actively supporting the invaders and suppressing the population, the corruption goes deep. 

Very interesting that the Protestants and Catholic Irish are banding together to protest the invaders.  The enemy of my enemy is my friend.
Title: Re: Buckle up.....
Post by: Rush on August 05, 2024, 07:17:52 AM


Very interesting that the Protestants and Catholic Irish are banding together to protest the invaders.  The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

I saw that on Twitter and wanted to make a snarky comment along the lines of you spent decades killing each other, and now look at you. All of a sudden the "other" Christians you earstwhile hated so much don't look so bad, do they? 

But I decided not to go there, even though they richly deserve it.

I have no patience for Christians that hate other versions of Christianity.
Title: Re: Buckle up.....
Post by: Rush on August 05, 2024, 07:29:28 AM
I can't even log on to my brokerage accounts.  I suspect their servers are busy executing sell orders.

The last time this happened was Oct 19, 1987.

I was able to log in and watch us lose $1300 MORE dollars in five minutes, over the tens of thousands lost already just this morning. So I logged off and think I will go eat breakfast.
Title: Re: Buckle up.....
Post by: Jim Logajan on August 05, 2024, 07:33:14 AM
so what's the trip wire on the Dow?
I don't think any of the stock exchanges use the Dow index as a metric for their circuit breaker triggers. This has some background info: https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/investing-basics/glossary/stock-market-circuit-breakers (https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/investing-basics/glossary/stock-market-circuit-breakers)
Title: Re: Buckle up.....
Post by: Bamaflyer on August 05, 2024, 07:39:13 AM
The UK is lost. We are next.

Being retired military I keep up with things. A squadron of fighters (F-15Es) deployed over there somewhere undisclosed, and I read today another squadron of the badass F-22 has been deployed. A carrier with its fighters is also deployed there. Already had F-16 and A-10 squadrons deployed. Probably more stuff deployed that hasn’t been published.

I don’t think Iran wants any part of the US protecting Israel and hope that’s the case.
Title: Re: Buckle up.....
Post by: EppyGA - White Christian Domestic Terrorist on August 05, 2024, 08:01:31 AM
The UK is lost. We are next.
I think other European countries go next.
Title: Re: Buckle up.....
Post by: Rush on August 05, 2024, 08:02:19 AM
Being retired military I keep up with things. A squadron of fighters (F-15Es) deployed over there somewhere undisclosed, and I read today another squadron of the badass F-22 has been deployed. A carrier with its fighters is also deployed there. Already had F-16 and A-10 squadrons deployed. Probably more stuff deployed that hasn’t been published.

I don’t think Iran wants any part of the US protecting Israel and hope that’s the case.

You’re talking about the MidEast, we aren’t deploying stuff to the UK are we?  You know, to help the government put down the rebellion by native UK citizens who are so unfairly protesting the mostly peaceful Muslim immigrants raping and beating them up.
Title: Re: Buckle up.....
Post by: EppyGA - White Christian Domestic Terrorist on August 05, 2024, 08:06:14 AM
Warren sold off a lot of Apple stock. Apple has not done anything spectacular in the phone market in years. No innovation coming from them.  Samsung has taken pver there with their folding large screen phones.


(http://www.pilotspin.com/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=7698.0;attach=4199)
Title: Re: Buckle up.....
Post by: Bamaflyer on August 05, 2024, 04:13:44 PM
You’re talking about the MidEast, we aren’t deploying stuff to the UK are we?  You know, to help the government put down the rebellion by native UK citizens who are so unfairly protesting the mostly peaceful Muslim immigrants raping and beating them up.

I believe the F-15E squadron was from Lakenheath Air Base in the UK. Think that leaves 2 squadrons remaining at Lakenheath. F-15Es are ground attack fighters so probably won’t be used in the UK protests lol.


Update article:
https://www.airandspaceforces.com/f-22s-land-in-middle-eastcountering-iran-and-its-proxies/
Title: Re: Buckle up.....
Post by: Bob Noel on August 05, 2024, 04:20:31 PM
I believe the F-15E squadron was from Lakenheath Air Base in the UK. Think that leaves 2 squadrons remaining at Lakenheath. F-15Es are ground attack fighters so probably won’t be used in the UK protests lol.

well, you wouldn't use air superiority fighters in the UK protests, would you?  (if you know what I mean...)

Title: Re: Buckle up.....
Post by: Anthony on August 05, 2024, 05:52:21 PM
well, you wouldn't use air superiority fighters in the UK protests, would you?  (if you know what I mean...)

They're gearing up for both Ukraine and Israel. We all seem to know this. Bad Ju-Ju imho.
Title: Re: Buckle up.....
Post by: Bob Noel on August 07, 2024, 09:32:45 AM
after dropping more than 1000 points, AP reported that the stock market "bounced back"....  wee, 200 points.

yup, that's definitely a "bounce"

Title: Re: Buckle up.....
Post by: Rush on August 07, 2024, 10:32:26 AM
after dropping more than 1000 points, AP reported that the stock market "bounced back"....  wee, 200 points.

yup, that's definitely a "bounce"

Yesterday we got back about a third of what we lost. Haven’t checked today yet.
Title: Re: Buckle up.....
Post by: Bamaflyer on August 07, 2024, 11:38:50 AM
well, you wouldn't use air superiority fighters in the UK protests, would you?  (if you know what I mean...)

I think some RINO that resides in Wyoming and has a crazed daughter RINO might…
Title: Re: Buckle up.....
Post by: EppyGA - White Christian Domestic Terrorist on August 07, 2024, 03:09:14 PM
DOW was down 234 today.  The only thing up was oil.  ::)
Title: Re: Buckle up.....
Post by: Little Joe on August 07, 2024, 04:31:36 PM
Yesterday we got back about a third of what we lost. Haven’t checked today yet.
On Monday, I lost around $27,000.
Yesterday morning my portfolio was up around $11,000.  It closed up $421.
Today it was up as much as $13,000.  It closed down $439.

I think I'm getting sea-sick.
Title: Re: Buckle up.....
Post by: Bob Noel on August 07, 2024, 04:42:57 PM
I'm reminded of how to use a landing light in an engine-out scenario at night:

step 1:  as you get close to the ground, turn on the landing light.

step 2:  if you don't like what you see, turn off the landing light.


Maybe we shouldn't look at our portfolio value multiple times each day... unless we like getting seasick 
Title: Re: Buckle up.....
Post by: Little Joe on August 07, 2024, 04:53:57 PM
I'm reminded of how to use a landing light in an engine-out scenario at night:

step 1:  as you get close to the ground, turn on the landing light.

step 2:  if you don't like what you see, turn off the landing light.


Maybe we shouldn't look at our portfolio value multiple times each day... unless we like getting seasick
I hear that a lot.  Perhaps there is some truth to it.
But I knew a guy that checked his portfolio after 6 months and killed himself because it was down almost 50%.
Title: Re: Buckle up.....
Post by: You Only Live Twice on August 07, 2024, 06:12:58 PM

But I knew a guy that checked his portfolio after 6 months and killed himself because it was down almost 50%.

Permanent solution to a temporary problem.

People that sold out at the bottom in Mar 2020 and didn't get back in quickly lost their shirts.
Title: Re: Buckle up.....
Post by: Rush on August 07, 2024, 06:32:58 PM
Yeah when it’s down is not the time to sell. It’s the time to buy!  ;D
Title: Re: Buckle up.....
Post by: Bamaflyer on August 10, 2024, 06:10:05 AM
Yeah when it’s down is not the time to sell. It’s the time to buy!  ;D

That’s the thing about dollar cost averaging. For example you invest the same amount every month, whether the market is up or down. Up you buy less shares, down you buy more.  Over time you should come up ahead. Vanguard’s founder John Bogle preached that. All my stuff is in Vanguard funds.

Title: Re: Buckle up.....
Post by: Anthony on August 10, 2024, 06:47:29 AM
That’s the thing about dollar cost averaging. For example you invest the same amount every month, whether the market is up or down. Up you buy less shares, down you buy more.  Over time you should come up ahead. Vanguard’s founder John Bogle preached that. All my stuff is in Vanguard funds.

That's what I've always preached and done. Good solid strategy.
Title: Re: Buckle up.....
Post by: Bob Noel on August 10, 2024, 07:53:35 AM
past performance does not guarantee future performance.

but thinking about that, maybe it should be:  past good performance does not guarantee future good performance.
 
Title: Re: Buckle up.....
Post by: Rush on August 10, 2024, 07:56:54 AM
That’s the thing about dollar cost averaging. For example you invest the same amount every month, whether the market is up or down. Up you buy less shares, down you buy more.  Over time you should come up ahead. Vanguard’s founder John Bogle preached that. All my stuff is in Vanguard funds.

Right. Like contributing to your 401(k) or IRA you just throw the same amount in every paycheck and ignore it until you retire, assuming the account is well diversified.  I mean you can restructure from time to time, getting more conservative as you near retirement, but you don’t play guessing games with individual assets.

If you want to play individual stocks and try to buy low, sell high and beat the average market, that’s a different game.  You have to spend a lot of time knowing what you’re doing.  Like the guy I know that bought Walmart stock back when nobody heard of Walmart.

But here’s what has been bothering me lately about that philosophy, of Vanguard’s founder, that over time with cost averaging you will grow. That has been true as long as the economy is growing (averaged out of course, ignoring short term ups and downs) but doesn’t a growing economy rely on a growing population?  Developing and developed nations have growing economies and growing populations but as they become more prosperous their birth rates begin to decline. If they drop below replacement rate and don’t import enough people (immigrants) to make up the difference, aren’t their economies destined to shrink and eventually crash?

I haven’t quite figured out how globalism fits into that but it might be similar.  And one’s portfolio can contain foreign investments, so let’s say your country’s net population is decreasing every year. Let’s say this means your production also decreases so you must invest in foreign assets to continue to grow your portfolio. What happens when we reach a global population peak and then the total human population begins to decline?

You might say that if technology enables the increase in productivity per individual per unit of time, that the economy can continue to grow, but surely that can help only to a point.  The total value of an entire economy, represented by a currency, gold, bitcoin, etc., must equal the total value of actual real goods and services; stuff people are willing to pay for. If that declines because you have fewer people producing them, and also fewer people demanding them, your economy shrinks, right?

And maybe things that used to be scarce become plentiful, bringing down the price. Like natural resources that were being depleted with a growing world population begin to recover?  The value of any asset (or currency for that matter) can grow only as long as demand for it exists with a limit on its supply.  Nobody pays for the air they breathe; for all intents and purposes the supply is infinite (under normal circumstances; not counting an 02 boost because of medical reasons or high altitude). This gets into “scarcity theory” of economics, which is to say a good or service only has value as long as there is a cap on its availability. When the supply becomes infinite, or so large that it behaves as if it were, then it becomes completely worthless. We might go back to lobsters being the cheapest seafood you can get.

And I haven’t even begun to address the artificial inflation of “value” that happens when you print money without a corresponding increase in economic output.