PILOT SPIN

Spin Zone => Spin Zone => Topic started by: Number7 on October 05, 2024, 08:00:59 PM

Title: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Number7 on October 05, 2024, 08:00:59 PM
It looks like Florida is going to take another brutal hit this week.

Hurricane Milton is aiming straight into Tampa Bay and could bring catastrophic flooding from storm surge and rain. The best guess is a cat 3 storm and about 12-16” of rain.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/023521.shtml?cone#contents

Fuck me…

Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Little Joe on October 06, 2024, 04:03:52 AM
The latest image shows it to still be a full fledged hurricane when it his us on the East Coast.  Normallly, a cat 1 or 2 wouldn't bother me too much, but we are expected to have tons of rain on the days leading up to it's arrival, softening up the ground.

And there is another one right behind it that most people are not paying attention too.

And there is Leslie coming from the other directions.  It looks to be less powerful and will probably turn north, but who knows.

I'm headed to the liquor store today to stock up on hurricane supplies.  But instead of actual evacuation, we may reserve a room at the local Residence Inn.  It is new and conforms to the latest codes.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Rush on October 06, 2024, 04:26:25 AM
The latest image shows it to still be a full fledged hurricane when it his us on the East Coast.  Normallly, a cat 1 or 2 wouldn't bother me too much, but we are expected to have tons of rain on the days leading up to it's arrival, softening up the ground.

And there is another one right behind it that most people are not paying attention too.

And there is Leslie coming from the other directions.  It looks to be less powerful and will probably turn north, but who knows.

I'm headed to the liquor store today to stock up on hurricane supplies.  But instead of actual evacuation, we may reserve a room at the local Residence Inn.  It is new and conforms to the latest codes.

At least you got your priorities straight.

Seriously, you guys there stay safe. It looks like it won’t affect our travels anyway.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Username on October 06, 2024, 06:13:15 AM
Prayers to all of you in harm's way.  Stay safe, and please updates us on how you're doing when you are able.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Number7 on October 06, 2024, 08:31:37 AM
I was around Perry, Fl all this week and the destruction is so much worse than you think.

There’s a tiny town near Perry that has one public building. It houses the city hall, police dept, fire, utilities and there was a hand painted sign out front I saw on Friday morning early.
It read:

“If you are affected by hurricane Helene, we are serving hot meals all day.”

 Slow it was another smaller sign.

“We are serving spaghetti for supper tonight.”

It was signed by the local women’s club.

I told my wife that hand made sign in a tiny town was the perfect definition of Small Town
America. People dropping what they are doing to help each other.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Bamaflyer on October 06, 2024, 08:58:02 AM
Fkg climate change! 😡


I kid! Stay safe.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: You Only Live Twice on October 06, 2024, 09:03:32 AM
It looks like Florida is going to take another brutal hit this week.

Hurricane Milton is aiming straight into Tampa Bay and could bring catastrophic flooding from storm surge and rain. The best guess is a cat 3 storm and about 12-16” of rain.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/023521.shtml?cone#contents

Fuck me…

Kinda worried about this one.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Number7 on October 07, 2024, 12:19:53 PM
So… at the 2 pm update Milton currently at CAT 5 with sustained winds measured by hurricane hunter aircraft at 175 mph.

The track seems to be straight in to Tampa Bay which is what the governor called, “a worst case scenario.”



https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/152801.shtml?cone#contents
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Little Joe on October 07, 2024, 01:00:40 PM
Fkg climate change! 😡


I kid! Stay safe.
You only think you are kidding.

You can argue about the cause,
You can argue about whether/if we can/should do anything about it.
But I do not understand those that say it ain't happening.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Lucifer on October 07, 2024, 02:06:52 PM
The climate has been changing since the beginning of time.   And it will keep changing.

And man is not a contributor, nor can man alter or change it.   Period.

And giving more money, or giving up freedom to any government won't change it either.


Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Little Joe on October 07, 2024, 03:55:56 PM
The climate has been changing since the beginning of time.   And it will keep changing.

And man is not a contributor, nor can man alter or change it.   Period.

And giving more money, or giving up freedom to any government won't change it either.
And nothing I said refutes any of that.

But the climate is changing in a way that will soon force me to take action.  I've already fortified my house to withstand a cat-5 hurricane, but there isn't much I can do to prevent the Intra Coastal Waterway out front from filling up my one story house. except to move.

The climate has always been changing one way or the other and will continue.  That doesn't mean we just have to die.  And Pavlovian responses don't help anything or anyone.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Lucifer on October 07, 2024, 04:08:27 PM
And nothing I said refutes any of that.

But the climate is changing in a way that will soon force me to take action.  I've already fortified my house to withstand a cat-5 hurricane, but there isn't much I can do to prevent the Intra Coastal Waterway out front from filling up my one story house. except to move.

The climate has always been changing one way or the other and will continue.  That doesn't mean we just have to die.  And Pavlovian responses don't help anything or anyone.

  You made the choice on where you live.   The sensible solution is to move to higher ground, or more inland.  However, that didn't help the folks in NC.

  Everywhere on earth has it's advantages and disavantages.   It's called risk assessment and risk mitigation.  Make your choice.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Little Joe on October 07, 2024, 04:21:21 PM
  You made the choice on where you live.   The sensible solution is to move to higher ground, or more inland.  However, that didn't help the folks in NC.

  Everywhere on earth has it's advantages and disavantages.   It's called risk assessment and risk mitigation.  Make your choice.
Yeah, I made the choice.  And now that things are changing for the worse, I need to make another choice.

The guy that lives 4 doors down from me has been in that house since he was born.  He's 75 now.  His dock was never damaged by hurricanes until Matthew in 2016.  He had it rebuilt, but it was destroyed 3 more times since then.  He did not rebuild the last time and it still has ugly pilings sticking up where the dock was.  Drive up and down my street and there is dock after dock after dock that have not been rebuilt because it is obvious that it will be destroyed again.


Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Anthony on October 07, 2024, 05:25:29 PM
Climate is measured in millenia, not a few decades.   ::)

Joe, you're talking about the Weather. Remember the Dust Bowl? Weather. 
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Little Joe on October 07, 2024, 05:59:08 PM
Climate is measured in millenia, not a few decades.   ::)

Joe, you're talking about the Weather. Remember the Dust Bowl? Weather.
It's a distinction without a difference to me.  I see a 180mph hurricane headed my way.  With luck, it will only be about 120 when it gets here.

Why am I getting all the negative feedback?
In your opinion, is the climate changing or not?
I say it is.  I am not saying why.  And I'm not saying we can do anything about it.  I'm just observing that it is changing (rapidly), and for the worse for me.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Lucifer on October 07, 2024, 06:09:36 PM
.

Why am I getting all the negative feedback?

Negative?  Hardly.  It's called a discussion.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: EppyGA - White Christian Domestic Terrorist on October 07, 2024, 06:35:56 PM
In your opinion, is the climate changing or not?
I think folks have already said the climate is "always" changing. We just don't think handing money to the Government will make it not change or whatever it is they claim they can make it do. 


This hurricane is packing a punch because it so tightly wound and has a very small wind field.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Rush on October 08, 2024, 03:34:58 AM
You read published papers on the subject and it’s so much horseshit.  Here’s one:

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/hurricanes-frequency-danger-climate-change-atlantic

Here is the title:  Hurricanes may not be becoming more frequent, but they’re still more dangerous

Here is the actual scientific conclusion of the study:  There aren’t more of the storms now than there were roughly 150 years ago, a study suggests

Then if you read the body of the article you discover that it’s only the last 30 years that the intensity and speed has increased, which is not even a blip in terms of geologic time, and there is only speculation about the many reasons why, including “global warming” and decreased pollution.

But then it goes on to admit that there has been NO increase in intensity over the previous 168 year timeframe as well as no increase in the number of storms. This is during the time of massive industrialization.

Quote
More surprisingly — even to Vecchi, he says — the data also seem to show no significant increase in hurricane intensity over that time. That’s despite “scientific consistency between theories and models indicating that the typical intensity of hurricanes is more likely to increase as the planet warms,” Vecchi says. But this conclusion is heavily caveated — and the study also doesn’t provide evidence against the hypothesis that global warming “has acted and will act to intensify hurricane activity,” he adds.

So the study provides NO evidence that there is a connection between global warming and increase in hurricane intensity.

And it belabors this point: 

Quote
But, Wallace notes, these deposits don’t reveal anything about whether climate change is producing more intense hurricanes. And modern observational data on changes in hurricane intensity is muddled by its own uncertainties, particularly the fact that the satellite record just isn’t that long. Still, “I liked that the study says it doesn’t necessarily provide evidence against the hypothesis” that higher sea-surface temperatures would increase hurricane intensity by adding more energy to the storm, she says.

“But but but… it doesn’t prove it doesn’t, so there!!” The article tries to use that you can’t prove a negative to imply a positive.  But the bulk of the study fails to demonstrate the claim in the title that hurricanes are becoming more dangerous. But it doesn’t prove that their hypothesis isn’t true, so that’s what they emphasize.  A clear case of biased analysis of their own data.

The article omits the fact that the main reason hurricanes are so much more devastating is simply due to a higher population and population living near the coasts - I suppose that was included in saying they are more deadly “in many ways”. Yeah, more people in the way of them.

Then it weakly suggests global warming was the cause of Harvey having “more rain”, and by the way we need to fear the rising sea level!!

I’m so sick of these so-called “scientists” gaslighting the public with their grift and political agenda.

Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Bob Noel on October 08, 2024, 05:40:21 AM
Climate is measured in millenia, not a few decades.   ::)

Joe, you're talking about the Weather. Remember the Dust Bowl? Weather.

It's my understanding that the effects of the prolonged drought were intensified by how the area was cultivated, losing much of the vegetation that would have helped retain the soil.

Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: You Only Live Twice on October 08, 2024, 08:18:35 AM
  You made the choice on where you live.   The sensible solution is to move to higher ground, or more inland.  However, that didn't help the folks in NC.

  Everywhere on earth has it's advantages and disavantages.   It's called risk assessment and risk mitigation.  Make your choice.
NC was the result of flooding of rivers and lakes.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Little Joe on October 08, 2024, 09:11:56 AM
River’s and lakes don’t just spontaneously and inexplicably overflow.
Otherwise, why doesn’t it happen more often?
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: You Only Live Twice on October 08, 2024, 09:33:00 AM
River’s and lakes don’t just spontaneously and inexplicably overflow.
Otherwise, why doesn’t it happen more often?

20" of rain in a day can do that.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Number7 on October 08, 2024, 09:44:58 AM
River’s and lakes don’t just spontaneously and inexplicably overflow.
Otherwise, why doesn’t it happen more often?

There have been numerous examples of 12-20” tropical storm rains.
This time it happened in NC.

Just because weather happens doesn’t mean it’s climate change. It’s just the cyclical nature of the planet.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Username on October 08, 2024, 10:08:55 AM
I read "somewhere" that the rivers and streams that were dammed by the TVA held back the water properly, but where there was public resistance to the engineering works, the rivers and streams overflowed and flooded the towns.  Don't know if that's true, but seems likely.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Bob Noel on October 08, 2024, 10:12:08 AM
that's probably true to some extent.

But there are plenty of examples of public dams that have failed in other areas and times.

Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Rush on October 08, 2024, 10:36:46 AM
that's probably true to some extent.

But there are plenty of examples of public dams that have failed in other areas and times.

Oh yes. Burned into my DNA by the stories I heard as a child. My great-grandfather saw the huge wall of water barreling down the valley pushing locomotives, rail cars, whole houses, big rolls of barbed wire, smelting furnaces, dead and alive bodies, trees, all kinds of debris.  He ran up the hill and watched his neighborhood be destroyed. When it was all over only thing left on his property was a small tree that had survived. His house and everything in it was gone. He rebuilt up on that hill and it became the beloved hill my mother grew up on and I visited as a child.  I wouldn’t exist if he hadn’t happened to see it and run up that hill.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Fork_Dam

Publicly built damn but refurbished by a private club which did not engineer it properly.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Bamaflyer on October 08, 2024, 01:29:38 PM
This is interesting. I remember when I was stationed in then West Germany in 70-71 our Air Force Base would be fogged in. After a short time we’d hear s C-130 overhead, back and forth over the base. They were seeding the cloud/fog and after a short time we’d start noticing blue sky as the fog condensed and cleared. Anyway here it is:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9OqZUZADO5E
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: jb1842 on October 08, 2024, 01:36:45 PM
Now as much as I feel for everyone in Florida, am I the only one that hopes Disney is flattened?
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Bamaflyer on October 08, 2024, 02:43:08 PM
Now as much as I feel for everyone in Florida, am I the only one that hopes Disney is flattened?

Nope
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Anthony on October 08, 2024, 02:58:54 PM
It's a distinction without a difference to me.  I see a 180mph hurricane headed my way.  With luck, it will only be about 120 when it gets here.

Why am I getting all the negative feedback?
In your opinion, is the climate changing or not?
I say it is.  I am not saying why.  And I'm not saying we can do anything about it.  I'm just observing that it is changing (rapidly), and for the worse for me.

The weather gets really bad sometimes. Always has, Always will. Ice Ages are Climate Change, not occasional bad storms.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Anthony on October 08, 2024, 03:02:27 PM
Now as much as I feel for everyone in Florida, am I the only one that hopes Disney is flattened?

Igor, etc., can go with it.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: EppyGA - White Christian Domestic Terrorist on October 09, 2024, 05:17:07 AM
Where did Isaac, Joyce, Kirk & Leslie go?
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Little Joe on October 09, 2024, 09:58:52 AM
Where did Isaac, Joyce, Kirk & Leslie go?
I don't know about the other three, but Leslie is in the bedroom packing to evacuate to a local Residence Inn.  It is further from the water than us and it is new and built like a bunker.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: texasag93 on October 09, 2024, 01:11:35 PM
Where did Isaac, Joyce, Kirk & Leslie go?

I am glad we do not know.  6 in a row would have a HUGE suck factor.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Old Crow on October 09, 2024, 01:25:32 PM
I think the other three are playing around in the mid Atlantic doesn't appear to be coming our way.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: EppyGA - White Christian Domestic Terrorist on October 09, 2024, 02:05:09 PM
Looks like Milton has been downgraded again.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Number7 on October 09, 2024, 03:56:48 PM
Downgrade or not, the conditions here have been deteriorating all afternoon.

The storm is expected onshore around 9 tonight, I think, and then things will get weird.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Little Joe on October 10, 2024, 03:57:05 AM
Downgrade or not, the conditions here have been deteriorating all afternoon.

The storm is expected onshore around 9 tonight, I think, and then things will get weird.
How did you fare?  We checked into a hotel and watched from the 5th floor. We are fine but our house lost power around 1am but we haven’t been back to check it yet.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: EppyGA - White Christian Domestic Terrorist on October 10, 2024, 07:02:34 AM
My wife's BIL in Ocoee is fine, lost power at 5:30 am.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: azure on October 10, 2024, 07:25:48 AM
I've been corresponding with an old family friend who lives in New Port Richey. He went incommunicado around 2100 last night, almost certainly lost power. Reported a 10" power loss earlier, a harbinger of what was coming no doubt.

As for the earlier comments about man not being able to affect the climate, this is aspirational and based on politics not science. We know now that we can affect the climate, and have been for at least a century. I'm not saying we should ditch fossil fuels - the effect on the economy would be disastrous and would have little benefit climate-wise since emissions are a worldwide issue. We have only an approximate idea of the equilibrium climate sensitivity and relaxation rate anyway (time to equilibrium), so it's anyone's guess at this point how much warming is already baked in.

The goal now should be adaptation - real mitigation is beyond our power as a nation.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: azure on October 10, 2024, 07:38:50 AM
The weather gets really bad sometimes. Always has, Always will. Ice Ages are Climate Change, not occasional bad storms.

Yes, storms are weather not climate. But climate does affect the severity of storms. You can't say for sure that Milton would not have developed without MMGW, not even that it wouldn't have strengthened to a Cat 5. What you can say is that the water temperatures in the Gulf that made it so intense are warmer than they would have been without MMGW. That's not the same thing as saying that the damage caused by Milton is due to climate change. Subtle difference.

Again, believing that humans can't affect the climate is aspirational. We can and are. Whether we can or should stop doing so is a whole other question.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Lucifer on October 10, 2024, 08:17:38 AM
Yes, storms are weather not climate. But climate does affect the severity of storms. You can't say for sure that Milton would not have developed without MMGW, not even that it wouldn't have strengthened to a Cat 5. What you can say is that the water temperatures in the Gulf that made it so intense are warmer than they would have been without MMGW. That's not the same thing as saying that the damage caused by Milton is due to climate change. Subtle difference.

Again, believing that humans can't affect the climate is aspirational. We can and are. Whether we can or should stop doing so is a whole other question.

MMGW is a myth perpetuated by an ideology.   Same as when we were warned that the earth was cooling because of man.   In 50 years of dire predictions none of it has happened. 
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Bob Noel on October 10, 2024, 08:19:50 AM
Yes, storms are weather not climate. But climate does affect the severity of storms. You can't say for sure that Milton would not have developed without MMGW, not even that it wouldn't have strengthened to a Cat 5. What you can say is that the water temperatures in the Gulf that made it so intense are warmer than they would have been without MMGW. That's not the same thing as saying that the damage caused by Milton is due to climate change. Subtle difference.

Again, believing that humans can't affect the climate is aspirational. We can and are. Whether we can or should stop doing so is a whole other question.

apply the same level of proof to your claims that you apply to the claims of others.

Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Number7 on October 10, 2024, 08:30:54 AM
The problem with academia is their “claims” and so called “science” is more religion than fact, and the nature of liberalism is to demand that everyone accept and believe their daydreams.

Add to that the demand that everyone give the leftist whores our money and poof, mmgw is supposed to be “solved.” Of course when there is no standard for what is “wrong” and what is supposed be used to conclude that the make believe wrong is somehow been fixed, you have simple minded bullshit, provided by egotistical nit wits, demanding that everyone engage in their mental dysfunctions, or else.

Whenever someone like azure claims there is no doubt that mmgw caused Milton to be bad, it makes me think doctor Tony quackenheimer fauci claiming that He Is The Science. It is simple minded leftists, worshipping a fake mantra, demanding everyone pretend their fantasies are true.

Since azure is so smart about ‘climate science,’ what is the right temperature for the Earth and why is it?

Be what measure is the proper temperature for the entire earth arrived at, and what standard was used to invent it?

How does one decide that the current temperature is the wrong one?

What makes the current temperature wrong?

Who gets to set these make believe right temperatures?

Since every climate prediction has been grossly wrong, why would any sane person believe what azure is promoting?

And, the most important question: if the climate is so precarious, why are iran china and india, three of the worst polluters on earth exempted from the leftist bullshit protocols adopted previously?
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: azure on October 10, 2024, 11:33:12 AM
apply the same level of proof to your claims that you apply to the claims of others.

I do. I was not prepared to accept that human greenhouse gas emissions were a significant contributor until this paper appeared in 2020, reinforcing earlier estimates of the ECS and narrowing the range significantly:

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019RG000678 (https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019RG000678)
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: azure on October 10, 2024, 11:57:59 AM
The problem with academia is their “claims” and so called “science” is more religion than fact, and the nature of liberalism is to demand that everyone accept and believe their daydreams.

Add to that the demand that everyone give the leftist whores our money and poof, mmgw is supposed to be “solved.” Of course when there is no standard for what is “wrong” and what is supposed be used to conclude that the make believe wrong is somehow been fixed, you have simple minded bullshit, provided by egotistical nit wits, demanding that everyone engage in their mental dysfunctions, or else.

Whenever someone like azure claims there is no doubt that mmgw caused Milton to be bad, it makes me think doctor Tony quackenheimer fauci claiming that He Is The Science. It is simple minded leftists, worshipping a fake mantra, demanding everyone pretend their fantasies are true.

Since azure is so smart about ‘climate science,’ what is the right temperature for the Earth and why is it?

Be what measure is the proper temperature for the entire earth arrived at, and what standard was used to invent it?

How does one decide that the current temperature is the wrong one?

What makes the current temperature wrong?

Who gets to set these make believe right temperatures?

Since every climate prediction has been grossly wrong, why would any sane person believe what azure is promoting?

And, the most important question: if the climate is so precarious, why are iran china and india, three of the worst polluters on earth exempted from the leftist bullshit protocols adopted previously?

This post here is a perfect example of why I don't discuss anything here, except to correct statements I notice that are way off base. Your arguments are based entirely on politics and, frankly, sound disingenuous to me.

I suspect you know very well that no one claims that there is some "right temperature" for the Earth. Certainly I've made no such claim. What is known to a certainty is that if you increase greenhouse concentrations in the atmosphere, all other things being equal, the global mean temperature will eventually rise until heat radiated into space again equals incoming heat from the Sun.

And we now have good reason to believe, in my opinion with moderate confidence, that we are the main cause of the current warming. Could there be other factors that we don't know about? Of course.

And there could well be benefits to a warmer planet - I don't claim that we're in a "climate emergency". But a warmer planet will be a different planet than the one we evolved on. Our species makes heavy use of its resources and we number some 8 billion. I think there is cause for concern.

Oh, and your "most important" question is pure politics. In my opinion this is not really a political problem but a technological one. I don't see any practical way to reduce global emissions enough to have an appreciable effect until technology advances to the point where the market makes fossil fuels obsolete. Right now it seems that is waiting on battery storage technology and economies of scale to make emerging technologies universally affordable. Other possibilities might emerge too - lots of people are working on this.

But I doubt it will happen in time to prevent changing our surface environment in ways we can't totally predict, and imo we're not thinking seriously enough yet about adaptation.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: EppyGA - White Christian Domestic Terrorist on October 10, 2024, 12:03:19 PM
https://x.com/ChrisMartzWX/status/1844382615840657693


Chirs Martz always brings the receipts
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: EppyGA - White Christian Domestic Terrorist on October 10, 2024, 12:03:59 PM
One question for Azure, please explain how the Government demanding more of my money will fix anything.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: azure on October 10, 2024, 01:20:47 PM
One question for Azure, please explain how the Government demanding more of my money will fix anything.

And why is that a question for me? Did I ever argue for the government taking more of your money?

Other than the sort of local actions that are being discussed in Vermont, like strong incentives to discourage people from rebuilding in a floodplain, I don't think there is much that government could do to fix this problem, with or without more more tax dollars. People just need to wake up that "historical records" may not predict the future frequency of extreme weather events, and shouldn't be the basis of current building standards.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: EppyGA - White Christian Domestic Terrorist on October 10, 2024, 01:24:24 PM
And why is that a question for me? Did I ever argue for the government taking more of your money?

Other than the sort of local actions that are being discussed in Vermont, like strong incentives to discourage people from rebuilding in a floodplain, I don't think there is much that government could do to fix this problem, with or without more more tax dollars. People just need to wake up that "historical records" may not predict the future frequency of extreme weather events, and shouldn't be the basis of current building standards.
Because, generally, that has been the liberal answer to climate change, more taxes.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Username on October 10, 2024, 01:35:09 PM
There is no doubt that man can affect the short-term climate.  A global thermo nuclear exchange will loft so much dust that we'll have a "nuclear winter".  But after a few years the climate will stabilize and go back to whatever it was doing before the exchange.  The asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs (and the few asteroids before and after that) did the same thing, and then the climate recovered to whatever it was doing before.  No permanent damage to the planet.  The life living thereupon changed a bit, but the planet and its climate went merrily along as before.

I believe that it is possible that mankind putting a lot of extra CO2 into the atmosphere is also affecting the short-term climate.  If we (like EVERYONE and not just the US) suddenly stop doing that, in a few years the climate will go back to whatever it was doing before.  Whether what it was doing is getting hotter or colder or whatever is currently unknown.

I think we should be good stewards of the planet we're living on.  Reducing pollution and other emissions is a good thing to do for the planet and for mankind's long-term survival.  The current focus on just CO2 is a very narrow view.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Rush on October 10, 2024, 01:39:04 PM
How are you folks doing there in Florida?
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: azure on October 10, 2024, 03:38:39 PM
There is no doubt that man can affect the short-term climate.  A global thermo nuclear exchange will loft so much dust that we'll have a "nuclear winter".  But after a few years the climate will stabilize and go back to whatever it was doing before the exchange.  The asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs (and the few asteroids before and after that) did the same thing, and then the climate recovered to whatever it was doing before.  No permanent damage to the planet.  The life living thereupon changed a bit, but the planet and its climate went merrily along as before.

I believe that it is possible that mankind putting a lot of extra CO2 into the atmosphere is also affecting the short-term climate.  If we (like EVERYONE and not just the US) suddenly stop doing that, in a few years the climate will go back to whatever it was doing before.  Whether what it was doing is getting hotter or colder or whatever is currently unknown.

I think we should be good stewards of the planet we're living on.  Reducing pollution and other emissions is a good thing to do for the planet and for mankind's long-term survival.  The current focus on just CO2 is a very narrow view.

I agree with all of this, with the qualification that "short term" means short term on the geological time scale, and the effects of even short-term events can be very lasting. The dust after the Chicxulub impact event 66 million years ago likely settled out of the atmosphere after a few decades, but it took hundreds of thousands of years for terrestrial life to recover, and of course a huge number of species went extinct. The half life of CO2 in the atmosphere is a few decades (I've seen 30 years quoted), which is not a long time, but long enough on a human time scale, and since we're going to continue emitting large amounts of greenhouse gases for at least another half century or so, reversal won't happen within the lifetime of anyone alive today or their children.

Another point here: climate change can and has occurred over decadal time scales in the past, though humans had nothing to do with it. The warming at the end of the Younger Dryas that led to the Holocene is thought to have occurred within a single human lifetime. It's thanks to that warming that we developed agriculture, so I think it's unwise to dismiss the possibility of major impacts from the climate change that we're causing today, especially since it is likely to persist for a good deal longer than the time over which we've been burning fossil fuels.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: azure on October 10, 2024, 03:42:01 PM
Because, generally, that has been the liberal answer to climate change, more taxes.

And you associate me with liberals, exactly why?
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Number7 on October 10, 2024, 05:12:52 PM
And you associate me with liberals, exactly why?

Gee… talk about disingenuous.

WHO is it demanding obscene taxation to combat the fake ass mmgw.

Who is it getting ‘grants’ to ‘study’ mmgw?

Who is it concluding that government is the answer?

I’ll give you a hint…. It isn’t conservatives, because conservatives live in the real world, not your bullshit first, and lie second liberal nirvana of the mind.

What pisses me off about fake ass scientists like azure is the certainty of her bullshit, lying ass, argument.

Nowhere in her bullshit does she acknowledge the role of actual natural events in the temperature of planet earth. She pretends to be thoughtful and subtle, but is full of shit and while decrying politics in answers, she plays the politically correct card.

So…miss full of shit, does the increased volcano activity play a part in water temperatures. Does the natural cycle of earth have anything to do with your asinine a claim about mmgw? Does the fact that record keeping, and weather observing equipment and knowledge play a part in the false conclusion about mmgw?

You came in here spouting your sound bite religious dogma and then pretend to be offended because the group didn’t genuflect to your self appointed superior intellect.

It is laughable how you avoid the hard questions because answering them will unmask you as just another half wit preaching bullshit, spoon fed to you at whatever hothouse academic shit hole you crawled out of. Come back with something besides left wing sound bites and assumtive close, bullshit conclusions.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Jim Logajan on October 10, 2024, 06:31:23 PM
After removing the fluff and leaving in the meat of his argument, I get the following:
fake ass
bullshit
pisses me off
fake ass
bullshit
lying ass
bullshit
full of shit
full of shit
asinine
laughable
half wit
bullshit
shit hole
bullshit
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Number7 on October 10, 2024, 06:34:31 PM
After removing the fluff and leaving in the meat of his argument, I get the following:

Poor jimmy is feeling triggered tonight.

Go ahead and whine. It’s not like your post makes any difference. Azure will still be a man hating, lesbian, anti American mouthpiece, spewing talking points, and you will still be playing captain obvious.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Jim Logajan on October 10, 2024, 07:02:10 PM
Poor jimmy is feeling triggered tonight.
Says the man who just wrote "pisses me off."
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Number7 on October 10, 2024, 07:45:41 PM
Says the man who just wrote "pisses me off."

Awww… it’s ok. azure will still love your bets make weakness and reliable, never ending, liberal talking point defense.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: azure on October 11, 2024, 07:38:57 AM
Gee… talk about disingenuous.

WHO is it demanding obscene taxation to combat the fake ass mmgw.
Not me.

Quote
Who is it getting ‘grants’ to ‘study’ mmgw?
Not me - I follow the literature as much as I can at my backwater college, but I'm mainly a teacher who does exoplanets research on the side. Nothing to do with MMGW.

Quote
Who is it concluding that government is the answer?
Not me - and I even said as much in my last post. You're 0 for 3 at least, but feel free to keep trying.

Like I said, this is why I don't discuss anything here. You see politics in everything and think you know other peoples' political stances, but you're really just navel gazing and making shit up.

Quote
I’ll give you a hint…. It isn’t conservatives, because conservatives live in the real world, not your bullshit first, and lie second liberal nirvana of the mind.
Whatever the hell that is supposed to mean.

Quote
You came in here spouting your sound bite religious dogma and then pretend to be offended because the group didn’t genuflect to your self appointed superior intellect.
Not offended in the least, just a little bemused that people think I'm a liberal because I'm convinced that humans are a (if not the) major contributor to the current warming trend. Big hint: nature doesn't give a fig about politics.

Quote
It is laughable how you avoid the hard questions because answering them will unmask you as just another half wit preaching bullshit, spoon fed to you at whatever hothouse academic shit hole you crawled out of. Come back with something besides left wing sound bites and assumtive close, bullshit conclusions.
Whatever...
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: azure on October 11, 2024, 07:46:15 AM
Oh, and since Rush asked about folks in Florida... my friend in New Port Richey had power restored by early afternoon and is doing okay with minimal damage. His girlfriend wants to move to Charleston, SC but it sounds like he's aware that it's no safer than where they are. He has some cleanup ahead of him but it could have been a LOT worse.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Number7 on October 11, 2024, 07:57:10 AM
Whatever is about the most anyone could expect from someone preaching the bullshit mmgw religion.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Username on October 11, 2024, 08:18:54 AM
A friend in Asheville just got his power restored yesterday.  No Internet or water yet.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Rush on October 11, 2024, 08:53:52 AM
WOW!  Local official blocks good samaritan private helo pilot from rescuing couple trapped without supplies after their house washes away.

This is an insane story.

Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Rush on October 11, 2024, 09:09:43 AM
I flew over the NC/TN mountains yesterday but we were too high to see damage details or I didn’t know what I was looking at. There was one spot that looked like a highway was interrupted by a lot of mud.

But it struck me seeing the ridges and valleys how water would be funneled into the low areas, and also how much of them have no visible occupancy which is likely not true but rather sparsely occupied areas with heavy tree coverage hiding narrow roads to isolated cabins.  Very easy to see how many people could be stranded.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: azure on October 11, 2024, 09:17:29 AM
https://www.change.org/p/remove-dustin-waycaster-and-chris-melton-from-roles-as-fire-chief-and-asst-fire-chief (https://www.change.org/p/remove-dustin-waycaster-and-chris-melton-from-roles-as-fire-chief-and-asst-fire-chief)
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Rush on October 11, 2024, 09:40:22 AM
Playing devil’s advocate, the only possible justification for their actions (“they”, including the two mentioned in the change.org petition) is that in our sue happy society they feared legal repercussions if they allowed private citizens to conduct operations in areas of their overview.

Also no doubt there are cases of well intentioned do-gooders who end up just getting in the way and making things worse. Rather than knee-jerk banning anyone who wants to help, they should exercise discretion and here is a case of a person very able to help who would actually save lives.

I also have trouble condemning anyone in a disaster situation for any decision they make, until I’ve walked in their shoes. However in this case if they made a wrong snap decision they should admit to it, but instead they are doubling down and defending what they did, even though it has become very clear that they made the wrong call.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: EppyGA - White Christian Domestic Terrorist on October 11, 2024, 09:59:22 AM
They WAYYYY overreacted by telling him he would be arrested. Seems like conversation could have been had that would have allow him to get the husband and get his son.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: azure on October 11, 2024, 10:41:26 AM
If the facts as presented by "Dr. Grande" are accurate, it should have been clear to the Lake Lure authorities that this was a rescue that the National Guard helos (and the others, from whichever source, that were part of the official operations) were too large to conduct. They should have welcomed volunteer efforts and given them a frequency to coordinate with the official S&R first response team.

I agree with Rush that it's sort of Monday morning quarterbacking to criticize decisions made in the middle of a critical operation, but they should admit to mistakes and not double down once it became clear that enlisting the aid of volunteer pilots was indeed the right thing to do.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Anthony on October 11, 2024, 11:58:34 AM
When anyone and I mean anyone can tell me how much climate change is natural and how much is man made, I'll listen. Until then leave me alone and stop trying to ruin my standard of living and quality of life.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Rush on October 11, 2024, 11:59:09 AM
If the facts as presented by "Dr. Grande" are accurate, it should have been clear to the Lake Lure authorities that this was a rescue that the National Guard helos (and the others, from whichever source, that were part of the official operations) were too large to conduct. They should have welcomed volunteer efforts and given them a frequency to coordinate with the official S&R first response team.

I agree with Rush that it's sort of Monday morning quarterbacking to criticize decisions made in the middle of a critical operation, but they should admit to mistakes and not double down once it became clear that enlisting the aid of volunteer pilots was indeed the right thing to do.

I like his channel because he gives very concise stories without any rambling nonsense or fluff. He is extremely consistent, dropping one story a day, seven days a week, all of similar length so I can rely on them to be just about right to get me through the dishes for example. He focuses mostly on criminal cases these days, often covering recent events, and researches the facts pretty well but only from publicly released information which isn’t any guarantee it’s true but you can get the whole story from him without having to go to multiple sources yourself. He then usually gives his own psychological analysis and makes it clear it’s only his opinion. I don’t always agree with his conclusions but again, it’s only his opinion and he never pretends otherwise.  He’s got a peculiar dry sense of humor and a particular dislike of the state of New Jersey which is often the target of his digs.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Rush on October 11, 2024, 12:08:41 PM
When anyone and I mean anyone can tell me how much climate change is natural and how much is man made, I'll listen. Until then leave me alone and stop trying to ruin my standard of living quality of life.

When anyone, who claims climate change whether man-made or not, is a problem, and the solution is to centralize control as opposed to leaving control to individuals, that person is to be completely distrusted and his or her assertions about the climate disregarded. Their goal is to get your money, concentrate power in a small group at the top, and impose restrictions on everyone else.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: azure on October 11, 2024, 12:20:49 PM
When anyone and I mean anyone can tell me how much climate change is natural and how much is man made, I'll listen. Until then leave me alone and stop trying to ruin my standard of living quality of life.

Anyone? Many people will tell you it (the current warming and extreme weather) is ALL man made. Haven't you been listening?

I'm the one that says that's a glib answer, I think we're still in the early stages of the process, if greenhouse warming is the dominant factor as seems likely. Last decade we were surprised when the warming trend plateaued. That may have been due to a real lessening of solar output as we were in a sort of mini-Maunder minimum (and people speculated that we might be entering another full-blown one). There are DEFINITELY other factors and I don't think you should believe anyone who claims they know exactly how much of it is man-made. The greenhouse signal is just starting to rise above the noise - how much signal due to other factors is still too buried in the noise to discern is, by definition, something we don't know.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: elwood blues on October 11, 2024, 12:51:07 PM
When anyone and I mean anyone can tell me how much climate change is natural and how much is man made, I'll listen. Until then leave me alone and stop trying to ruin my standard of living and quality of life.

Here's a start:

Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Number7 on October 11, 2024, 12:59:43 PM
Where we are sitting, right now, used to be under water.

Where we are right now used to be under tons of ice.

Where we are right now used to be covered with molten lava.

Where we are right now used to be everything in between.

But suddenly, it’s all about mmgw, greenhouse emissions, oh my god, we are all going to die.

EVERY climate prediction has turned out to be nonsense made up by egotistical braggarts, seeking either grants, or profit and power. Not a single one has panned out.

The academic convention has been taken over by people needing grants and research money to the point where peer reviewed mostly means it has all the right politically correct talking points.

When the alarmists talk about mmgw they often ‘forget’ to mention that each of their yardstick measurements was exceeded sometime in the past. The whole, gulf warming is historic, until you factor the dearth of proper measuring devices and how past records were kept but only generally dependable.

The loud noise about milton was hysteria brought on by academics and politically motivated profiteers, claiming that a hurricane during hurricane season right where one should expect a hurricane to be is all because of mmgw.

The climate hysteria religion carefully ignores trends in favor fear mongering, and the truth is the first victim.

When the bullshit climate whiners start pointing out how many of their brethren own beachfront homes, and fly around in carbon spewing private jets, come back and talk to me.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Username on October 11, 2024, 04:18:08 PM
Climate change, whether man-made or natural, will not wipe out humanity.  Humanity will adapt and keep going.  Things will change.  Some for the better for some people, some for the worse for other people.  But humanity will keep going on.

The climate alarmists should be honest and just say that they want to control other people so THEY are not inconvenienced and have to adapt to other living conditions.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: azure on October 12, 2024, 06:44:48 AM
Climate change, whether man-made or natural, will not wipe out humanity.  Humanity will adapt and keep going.  Things will change.  Some for the better for some people, some for the worse for other people.  But humanity will keep going on.

The climate alarmists should be honest and just say that they want to control other people so THEY are not inconvenienced and have to adapt to other living conditions.

I agree for the most part. Where I differ is that I think many if not most of these people who advocate for radical mitigation measures are simply well-intentioned liberals who are used to the idea that government can solve most problems, and we (the people) don't REALLY have to pay for it, because of MMT or whatever.

From where I sit, they have a legitimate cause for concern. That does not mean I agree with their solutions. I do not advocate for measures that would lead to economic hardship for society writ large. I don't think government has a significant role in managing climate mitigation. The technology is advancing at the only pace it can without causing hardship, the pace of free enterprise and the market. I celebrate the entrepreneurs who recognize that the problem is real and are working on solutions to the technical problems that stand in the way of wider adoption of renewable energy sources like solar. I question whether even that will be enough, and think the government needs to largely get out of the way of entrepreneurs in the nuclear energy industry, but I'm under no illusions that all this will come to fruition in time to prevent a degree of warming that will change the surface of the planet we live on in ways we can only partly predict. That's the new reality, and it doesn't do anyone any good to pretend that it isn't happening. (I respect Judith Curry's opinion on this (see https://judithcurry.com/2024/05/26/fact-checking-the-fact-checkers-on-my-prager-u-video/ (https://judithcurry.com/2024/05/26/fact-checking-the-fact-checkers-on-my-prager-u-video/)) and, again, largely agree, except for whether the greenhouse warming signal is discernible - she says no, I think it is starting to become so.)

I'm more ambivalent about government's role in encouraging and managing adaptation measures. The libertarian in me says to let Darwin decide. But as long as public money is needed to rescue people who stupidly rebuild in storm surge-prone coastal areas and in floodplains, the public has a right to tell people they mustn't do that. We currently have a federal agency devoted to emergency response. Don't like the way FEMA throws their weight around? Fine, abolish them if you can. I'm not optimistic that that's politically possible, and I'm a realist.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Lucifer on October 12, 2024, 07:01:18 AM
For the last 4 years I've been told I must accept the fact that I will own an electric vehicle.  I've been told that new laws must be created to stop production of ICE vehicles, and we must phase out fossil fuels.

I've been told we need laws to do away with natural gas stoves and natural gas heating.  I've been told that solar and wind will provide for what we need.

I've watched our government make drilling permits near impossible to get, and then that same government depleted our strategic oil reserves.   We now buy fossil fuel from countries that hate our country.

I've watched our government make hundreds of new regulations on buildings and homes to demand "green energy" designs that people do not want, and drives up the expense. 

 I've watched the "carbon tax credit" scheme be put in place, which is a joke.  We are watching the government spend billions on this green energy hoax, which has resulted in tax dollars literally disappearing and no accountability.

  And why we are being told this must be mandated "to save the planet", countries like China, Russia and India are exempt.

  Climate Change is nothing more than a grift and a cult.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Number7 on October 12, 2024, 07:09:45 AM
The climate change religion is nothing but ANOTHER way for scum bag democrats to fleece working people, and indulge their sick need for power.

The green energy ignorance is just as deceitful as the abortion as health care bullshit, peddled by liars and freaks.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Anthony on October 12, 2024, 07:19:13 AM
Where we are sitting, right now, used to be under water.

Where we are right now used to be under tons of ice.

Where we are right now used to be covered with molten lava.

Where we are right now used to be everything in between.

But suddenly, it’s all about mmgw, greenhouse emissions, oh my god, we are all going to die.

EVERY climate prediction has turned out to be nonsense made up by egotistical braggarts, seeking either grants, or profit and power. Not a single one has panned out.

The academic convention has been taken over by people needing grants and research money to the point where peer reviewed mostly means it has all the right politically correct talking points.

When the alarmists talk about mmgw they often ‘forget’ to mention that each of their yardstick measurements was exceeded sometime in the past. The whole, gulf warming is historic, until you factor the dearth of proper measuring devices and how past records were kept but only generally dependable.

The loud noise about milton was hysteria brought on by academics and politically motivated profiteers, claiming that a hurricane during hurricane season right where one should expect a hurricane to be is all because of mmgw.

The climate hysteria religion carefully ignores trends in favor fear mongering, and the truth is the first victim.

When the bullshit climate whiners start pointing out how many of their brethren own beachfront homes, and fly around in carbon spewing private jets, come back and talk to me.

Well said!
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Username on October 12, 2024, 07:24:33 AM
When the Military Industrial Complex declines, the Climate Industrial Complex rises.  All to feed the "elite" on the backs of the proletariat.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Lucifer on October 12, 2024, 07:36:42 AM
When the Military Industrial Complex declines, the Climate Industrial Complex rises.  All to feed the "elite" on the backs of the proletariat.

  It's the unseen boogeyman.   Put people in fear of this boogeyman and they will comply.

  Religion works on the same principal.   There's always this unseen entity that controls everything, and if you put your blind faith behind this entity, and you behave and do as you are instructed by the higher ups, then you will be OK and will be granted an afterlife.    If you don't obey your afterlife will be thrown to the boogeyman.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Rush on October 12, 2024, 07:52:43 AM
ALL of global civilization rests on two things: 1) oil and 2) the United States Navy.

Very few countries have a lot of start to finish production using only locally sourced raw materials and all steps in the process are internal. No; the entire world has gone to the economies of scale importing via deep water shipping materials and partially formed parts, sometimes by the thousands, to assemble into the final product, for shipping back to whatever customers demand it.

Shipping depends on diesel (oil).

Since the end of WW2 the U.S. has taken the role of worldwide protector of shipping. Commercial vessels are safe from piracy due to this. (Recent events in the Mideast are a warning flag that this may change.)

The invention of container shipping has resulted in transportation costs approaching zero, making it economically efficient to split manufacturing into multiple steps, so that production of your product depends on materials and widgets sourced from multiple different parts of the world.

Very low transportation costs allow food and energy to be distributed to places where historically they were scarce so that poverty has been largely eradicated in many parts of the world.  Most nations are now involved in a global interdependency which if it suddenly fell apart would result in catastrophic economic collapse.

The climate change hysteria about “the Devil’s excrement” neither admits humanity’s dependence on it nor proposes an alternative that doesn’t involve active depopulation measures (killing masses of people).  Even if they did this, that doesn’t mean the few that remain retain any knowledge or skills to produce needed food and goods for survival, since it all has been subdivided into many separate steps.

Globalization of manufacturing and food production has resulted in man’s greatest good, lifting billions out of poverty and modernizing erstwhile subsistence level societies but has also locked us into a system that must be maintained. 

Any kind of fast tracked reduction of the use of fossil fuels would plunge the world into economic chaos of unimaginable horror.

MMCC may be real but if it is, we must simply adjust to it, because we will not be stopping the burning of oil any time soon.

Meanwhile populations in all developed nations are collapsing and the developing nations are soon to catch up, which is going to disrupt and eventually collapse the global trade substructure anyway.

Plus the American authority to act as world protector on the high seas is being eroded, most notably during the Biden administration. Attacks on commercial shipping have already begun in the Mideast by rogue terrorists.

The danger isn’t global warming.  The manmade component, if any, is soon to decline as international shipping and population and civilization in general declines. The real danger is the rise of international conflict over resources as the oceans become unsafe, food and goods are no longer very cheap to transport, industries collapse as transportation costs rise, and societies must reorient to an internal self sufficiency.

Trump and the MAGA movement are foreseeing this (albeit I suspect only subconsciously) with the impulse to withdraw from foreign conflict, halt foreign aid, and bring manufacturing back home. (The aid to Israel and NATO is partly in exchange for their agreement not to dispute the U.S. authority in protecting shipping lanes.)

The impulse to bring manufacturing back home is proactively wise, but will result in cost increases, a delicate balancing act that I’m not sure Trump completely understands.  But I think we need to move in that direction. If globalization collapses, the Americas are in the best position to survive, given our vast resources, and the safety of being separated by two oceans from the side of the planet that will be in worse shape.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: azure on October 12, 2024, 08:07:49 AM
The impulse to bring manufacturing back home is proactively wise, but will result in cost increases, a delicate balancing act that I’m not sure Trump completely understands.  But I think we need to move in that direction. If globalization collapses, the Americas are in the best position to survive, given our vast resources, and the safety of being separated by two oceans from the side of the planet that will be in worse shape.

Very cogent analysis. I agree, with one qualification: withdrawing completely from all foreign entanglements would make us sitting ducks for foreign aggressors. We do need to shore up domestic manufacturing, for sure, but we also need to maintain deterrence through a strong national defense, which includes alliances like NATO. The safety of two oceans is not complete in a world that has ICBMs and rogue nations with nukes. Peace through strength, as Reagan advocated, has not become irrelevant, and probably never will.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Rush on October 12, 2024, 08:16:49 AM
Very cogent analysis. I agree, with one qualification: withdrawing completely from all foreign entanglements would make us sitting ducks for foreign aggressors. We do need to shore up domestic manufacturing, for sure, but we also need to maintain deterrence through a strong national defense, which includes alliances like NATO. The safety of two oceans is not complete in a world that has ICBMs and rogue nations with nukes. Peace through strength, as Reagan advocated, has not become irrelevant, and probably never will.

I thought about mentioning nukes but decided my post was already long enough.  ;D  I’m hoping that all parties will refrain from nukes due to mutually assured destruction in which case all of this is moot.

I 100% agree we need to maintain a strong military and national defense as that is the best way to deter potential enemies from messing with us. I just wish the MIC would do that without involving us in endless “police actions” that accomplish nothing but killing and wounding our own youth not to mention tons of other humans.  Our military should never be deployed without Congress officially declaring war, being a good start.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Number7 on October 12, 2024, 08:18:06 AM
The REAL problem stupid sheep have with mmgw is that other stupid people built close to, at, and below sea level and in low lying areas. Stupid rich people built stupid expensive homes right by the water and when natural weather cycles turn against them they have to blame everything but their own, stupid egos for what happened.

The. They run out and fund fake ass studies go ‘prove’ their stupid cause and demand government ride in and save them.

Take the profit out of the fake ass mmgw religion and there’s nothing real left.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: azure on October 12, 2024, 08:36:06 AM
The REAL problem stupid sheep have with mmgw is that other stupid people built close to, at, and below sea level and in low lying areas. Stupid rich people built stupid expensive homes right by the water and when natural weather cycles turn against them they have to blame everything but their own, stupid egos for what happened.

Living in Vermont, I can tell you with 100% confidence that it's not just stupid rich people. Here it's largely ordinary people who relied on historical records that said major, destructive flooding where they wanted to build was a rare, maybe once-in-a-lifetime event. Now it's happening in back to back years, and they're faced with the decision whether to rebuild on property they already own or pull up stakes. People develop sentimental attachments to their homesteads and the land they built on as well. All that means they're understandably reluctant to move. Not a decision I envy - still, if they stay and rebuild in place, they're thinking largely with their emotions and costing their fellow citizens hard-earned money in the form of taxes.

I have no problem saying public money should NOT be used to subsidize their rebuilding on site. I have more trouble supporting laws that FORCE them to move, but I can see the argument for it.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: EppyGA - White Christian Domestic Terrorist on October 12, 2024, 09:28:42 AM
Very cogent analysis. I agree, with one qualification: withdrawing completely from all foreign entanglements would make us sitting ducks for foreign aggressors. We do need to shore up domestic manufacturing, for sure, but we also need to maintain deterrence through a strong national defense, which includes alliances like NATO. The safety of two oceans is not complete in a world that has ICBMs and rogue nations with nukes. Peace through strength, as Reagan advocated, has not become irrelevant, and probably never will.

Sitting ducks?  Hell, we've allowed out own Government to import a whole freaking army into this country over the last four years.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Username on October 12, 2024, 09:44:37 AM
Reminds me of a story from Japan or China, I forget which.  The government dammed a river as a flood control measure to protect the town.  That caused a lot of low-lying land to become dry.  The government warned anyone who wanted to farm there to beware... they may have to open the dam to protect the town and the farmers' lands could flood and everything would be washed away.  Some brave souls farmed the very fertile lowlands and became rich.  Then the rains came and the government wanted to open the floodgates to protect the town.  But the rich farmers kept the floodgates closed to protect their lands.  The town flooded and the rich became richer.

As always, follow the money.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Rush on October 12, 2024, 09:49:10 AM
Living in Vermont, I can tell you with 100% confidence that it's not just stupid rich people. Here it's largely ordinary people who relied on historical records that said major, destructive flooding where they wanted to build was a rare, maybe once-in-a-lifetime event. Now it's happening in back to back years, and they're faced with the decision whether to rebuild on property they already own or pull up stakes. People develop sentimental attachments to their homesteads and the land they built on as well. All that means they're understandably reluctant to move. Not a decision I envy - still, if they stay and rebuild in place, they're thinking largely with their emotions and costing their fellow citizens hard-earned money in the form of taxes.

I have no problem saying public money should NOT be used to subsidize their rebuilding on site. I have more trouble supporting laws that FORCE them to move, but I can see the argument for it.

Pull back to a large perspective (years more than we have historical records for) and allow random distribution of an event and you get clusters. The back to back flooding events could be explained by random event clustering.  Or it could be climate change. We cannot prove or disprove either hypothesis.

I agree public money should NOT be used to bail these people out. If you build, get private insurance. If you can’t get insurance, that means the actuarial tables point to it being high risk. They may be right or wrong but being based on profit motive, are probably the best guess we’re going to get.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: azure on October 12, 2024, 10:59:40 AM
Pull back to a large perspective (years more than we have historical records for) and allow random distribution of an event and you get clusters. The back to back flooding events could be explained by random event clustering.  Or it could be climate change. We cannot prove or disprove either hypothesis.

Correct. Single events, or one pair of events, cannot be used to deduce a long-term trend. But what we are seeing is a pattern of stronger and more frequent tropical storms, multiple heat waves in successive seasons over large areas of the planet (it was the PNW a couple of years ago, and our own desert SW and Europe this past summer), as well as the temperate latitude systems that bring devastating flooding in successive years that I mentioned. All considered, it is data, and it is showing signs of statistical significance. I wrote that I have *moderate* (not high) confidence that we are starting to see the greenhouse warming signal emerging from the noise. It could also be decadal oscillation or solar activity or ENSO or a combination of all three - we won't know for sure for another couple of decades. As I said, other factors are surely at work. It's my *personal* opinion that it's mainly greenhouse warming, because it is consistent with and on the right order of magnitude to be greenhouse warming, based on the estimates coming from the Sherwood study and the amount of CO2 we've already put into the atmosphere. (If it's NOT yet greenhouse warming, because most of the excess heat is still being stored in the oceans, then we may be in for some very rough times in the coming decades.)

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I agree public money should NOT be used to bail these people out. If you build, get private insurance. If you can’t get insurance, that means the actuarial tables point to it being high risk. They may be right or wrong but being based on profit motive, are probably the best guess we’re going to get.

Agree totally.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Rush on October 14, 2024, 05:04:03 AM
Here is my biggest problem. When the people that talk the talk start to walk the walk they’ll have more credibility. In the meantime anybody that squawks about climate change while dumping way more carbon into the air than the rest of us is not to be believed.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: EppyGA - White Christian Domestic Terrorist on October 14, 2024, 05:22:12 AM
Not Milton, but Helene related. I have an aviation friend on FB that lives in Ocala.  She flew out of Ocala last week to avoid Milton and flew to southern Georgia. My wife responded on FB and offered our guest room to her also, she's stayed with us before.  On Thursday she flew up to stay with us after a couple of days with her friends in Baxter, GA.

She made arrangements with a lady in Pickens, SC to fly some relief stuff into North Carolina. She flew up to Pickens Friday morning and stuffed her mighty 172 with coats and blankets and headed off to Franklin, NC.  The approach to the airport was a bit daunting for her, but she got in and unloaded.  She spent a little time there with someone she knew and heard, first hand, stories about what was happening.  She left and ended up coming back to our place instead of making another trip.


She spent The rest of Friday and Saturday with us.  Yesterday morning as she prepared to leave she told us what she had learned about what was happening up there. She was wondering why the MSM wasn't really talking about it. She mentioned she was told the story of the helo pilot that rescued the wife of a couple and was then prevented from going back for the husband. Said she didn't understand why that wasn't in the news.  I told here I knew all about it and many of the things she was mentioning because I am on X.  She doesn't like to talk about politics and I believe her to be somewhere left of center, but far left.  I tried to explain that the MSM is becoming irrelevant and a lot of the news now comes via X.  I don't know if I got through to her, but I did the best I could.  Time will tell.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Number7 on October 14, 2024, 05:38:20 AM
The fact that the federal idiots spend more time and money protecting their turf, and making up lies than doing anything of value, shows the depth of the rot caused by the democrats.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Bob Noel on October 14, 2024, 06:00:55 AM
If emergency teams, first responders, other disaster response teams, etc don't know how to handle and coordinate help from locals, then that points to a failure of the planning process.

In that part of the country, hurricanes are not so rare that people shouldn't plan for how to deal with them. 

Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: EppyGA - White Christian Domestic Terrorist on October 14, 2024, 06:12:27 AM
If emergency teams, first responders, other disaster response teams, etc don't know how to handle and coordinate help from locals, then that points to a failure of the planning process.

In that part of the country, hurricanes are not so rare that people shouldn't plan for how to deal with them.
Is it, indeed, a failure or SOP not wanting to give up any Federal control?
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Rush on October 14, 2024, 06:31:18 AM
If emergency teams, first responders, other disaster response teams, etc don't know how to handle and coordinate help from locals, then that points to a failure of the planning process.

In that part of the country, hurricanes are not so rare that people shouldn't plan for how to deal with them.

Florida yes. Mountains? Not so much. They do get flooding because of the high/low differential, but nothing like what Helene brought.  They’re well prepared for extended power outages due to ice and temporary impassable roads with snow and such, but not the kind of disaster that destroys multiple roads and bridges and people’s whole houses.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Anthony on October 14, 2024, 06:49:49 AM
The fact that the federal idiots spend more time and money protecting their turf, and making up lies than doing anything of value, shows the depth of the rot caused by the democrats.

Again, our Government is working against us. We are the enemy.  Only illegal aliens, and LGBTQxyz types are good enough for them. Especially the Feds.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Number7 on October 14, 2024, 07:02:28 AM
Again, our Government is working against us. We are the enemy.  Only illegal aliens, and LGBTQxyz types are good enough for them. Especially the Feds.

The idiot branch of government, communists who call themselves democrats, think that the categories of people you just mentioned are easily manipulated, and therefore can be counted on to do, say, vote, and think what they're told to do, say, vote, and think. 

The idiot branch of government, or communists who call themselves democrats, have decided that those of us who think for ourselves, raise the own children we create, take care of our own problems, pay our own mortgages, send our own children to college, serve our country, and are individuals in thought, act, and opinion, are the enemy and must be stamped out.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Lucifer on October 14, 2024, 07:27:19 AM
I can make this simple.

  The disciples of the MMCC cult treat it as a religion.  They consider it blasphemy to question "the written word" (supposed peer reviewed papers") and they expect others to put blind faith towards their given religion.

  Yet, many of those who are followers of the cult gleefully burn fossil fuels to warm their homes, cook their food, drive their SUV's and autos, ride motorbikes and even fly their airplanes.

  They just want YOU to stop having these privileges. Kinda like the elites in religion who have multi million dollar homes, private jets and limos, but expect the parishioners to pick up the tab.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: Number7 on October 14, 2024, 07:34:44 AM
I can make this simple.

  The disciples of the MMCC cult treat it as a religion.  They consider it blasphemy to question "the written word" (supposed peer reviewed papers" and they expect others to put blind faith towards their given religion.

  Yet, many of those who are followers of the cult gleefully burn fossil fuels to warm their homes, cook their food, drive their SUV's and autos, ride motorbikes and even fly their airplanes.

  They just want YOU to stop having these privileges. Kinda like the elites in religion who have multi million dollar homes, private jets and limos, but expect the parishioners to pick up the tab.

Just like antifa and blm, the grifters of the left always hold themselves above the sacrifice they demand of everyone else.
Title: Re: Milton Anyone…
Post by: You Only Live Twice on October 14, 2024, 11:36:30 AM
The fact that the federal idiots spend more time and money protecting their turf, and making up lies than doing anything of value, shows the depth of the rot caused by the democrats.

No bureaucrat was ever fired for saying "No."