PILOT SPIN
Spin Zone => Spin Zone => Topic started by: Lucifer on May 04, 2016, 05:58:30 AM
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http://www.weeklystandard.com/what-went-wrong-for-ted-cruz/article/2002227
Good article that sums up what many have been saying all along.
What happened to Ted Cruz? A month ago, he won the Wisconsin primary in a landslide and was poised to combat Donald Trump with a fresh burst of enthusiasm. Now he's out of the race and Trump is the presumptive Republican presidential nominee.
Things happened in two cycles, some in recent weeks and others that plagued his campaign from the beginning. As Trump said last night, Cruz is tough and smart. But he made big mistakes as a presidential candidate.
Cruz thought he could skip primaries in states that looked unpromising. He made a weak effort in New York on April 19 and finished third in the primary. That had an immediate impact on the primaries a week later in Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, and Rhode Island. He lost all five and finished third – that is, last – in four of them.
In primaries late in a presidential race, winning is everything, says Scott Reed, the political adviser to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. "Second doesn't matter. Third is a joke." Reed ran Bob Dole's successful campaign for the GOP nomination.
"It's a sequential process," according to Jeff Bell, a campaign adviser to Ronald Reagan in 1976. Voters are affected by the success of a candidate in earlier primaries. Trump's victory in New York led to the five-state sweep and to his triumph over Cruz in Indiana primary yesterday.
Cruz decided to make a stand in Indiana, brushing off the five Northeast states. He believed they "wouldn't make any difference in voters' minds in Indiana," says Rich Danker, who ran a pro-Cruz super PAC. But states "don't have to be all alike" for voters to be influenced by their outcome, he says.
After Cruz came in a distant third in New York, his poll numbers began to drop. Over ten days in late April, Cruz went from six percentage points behind Trump (WTHR/Howey Politics) to 15 points behind (NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist). Trump won Indiana by 16 points. On Monday, Gallup's editor in chief Frank Newport disclosed that "after a holding period of sorts in March and early April, Cruz's image began to deteriorate significantly in the last two weeks."
Two other factors contributed to his demise. He accused Trump of being a liberal like Hillary Clinton, the likely Democratic presidential nominee. The charge wasn't credible. Trump may not be a conservative, but he's hardly a liberal.
And Cruz talked incessantly about process. He and his campaign aides boasted about how well he was doing in putting Cruz backers in delegate slots pledged to Trump. They pointed to their success in winning all 34 delegates in Colorado, though neither a primary nor a caucus had been held.
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He pushed religion too much.
He's not charismatic, but kind of DULL.
The media painted him as radical right/tea party.
He is weird looking (but so is Trump) and Hillary is down right UGLY.
Neither the establishment GOP, nor the non establishment liked or supported him.
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He's not charismatic, but kind of DULL.
To me he comes across as a pompous prick.
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Maybe he put too much effort into securing "second ballot" delegates. Same as admitting your not planning on being the winner.
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Maybe he put too much effort into securing "second ballot" delegates. Same as admitting your not planning on being the winner.
Because a winner is someone who accuses your opponent's father of being involved with the assassination of a president on the morning of a primary, so your opponent, who appears to have been beaten, has to defend himself.
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Because a winner is someone who accuses your opponent's father of being involved with the assassination of a president on the morning of a primary, so your opponent, who appears to have been beaten, has to defend himself.
Stan do you honestly believe that this story in particular had any bearing on Cruz losing by the margin predicted in the polls for the last several weeks?
I get that this strikes a chord with you, like the Cruz shenanigans with the Carson and Rubio campaigns did for me and others, but those were stories about people dropping out of races and encouraging voters switch to Cruz - this Oswald story (which I think you and others have blown totally out of proportion and misrepresented) is not anything like that to me.
I really am curious if you think it substantively effected the results in Indiana.
'Gimp
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Stan do you honestly believe that this story in particular had any bearing on Cruz losing by the margin predicted in the polls for the last several weeks?
I get that this strikes a chord with you, like the Cruz shenanigans with the Carson and Rubio campaigns did for me and others, but those were stories about people dropping out of races and encouraging voters switch to Cruz - this Oswald story (which I think you and others have blown totally out of proportion and misrepresented) is not anything like that to me.
I really am curious if you think it substantively effected the results in Indiana.
'Gimp
No it didn't affect the results. But it showed the character of the man with whom you have chosen to hitch your wagon. It is a reflection of a man who is not satisfied by just winning. He has to kick the man and his father in the nuts just to prove what a big man he is.
I'm not a jock sniffer. I don't have hero worship for athletes or entertainers, like so many people do, given the celebrity worship that is so prevalent today. I've worked with all of the above in my business, and they are people like you and me. So I judge people solely by how they treat others, and how they treat me.
Trump fails on both fronts.
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No it didn't affect the results. But it showed the character of the man with whom you have chosen to hitch your wagon. It is a reflection of a man who is not satisfied by just winning. He has to kick the man and his father in the nuts just to prove what a big man he is.
I'm not a jock sniffer. I don't have hero worship for athletes or entertainers, like so many people do, given the celebrity worship that is so precedent today. I've worked with all of the above in my business, and they are people like you and me. So I judge people solely by how they treat others, and how they treat me.
Trump fails on both fronts.
Thanks for the clarification, seemed like you were making that argument and it made no sense.
I disagree with your ascription of motivation since we can never actually know what is going on in someone else's head but so be it.
'Gimp
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I think what went wrong for Cruz was the media. They wanted a Trump / Hillary matchup because it was the one which is most suited to having Hillary as president. So the media has been very nice and very accommodating to Donald up to now. They're not going to pivot immediately, but consider that yesterday he was the darling bad boy trying to get the nomination and now he has pretty much secured it and become their enemy. The nice phase is over.
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I think what went wrong for Cruz was the media. They wanted a Trump / Hillary matchup because it was the one which is most suited to having Hillary as president. So the media has been very nice and very accommodating to Donald up to now. They're not going to pivot immediately, but consider that yesterday he was the darling bad boy trying to get the nomination and now he has pretty much secured it and become their enemy. The nice phase is over.
That's the far right ideologues talking point, more fear mongering.
Maybe I don't watch the same media as you, but the media has not been friendly to Trump, by any stretch of the imagination.
Cruz failed for several reasons and the OP article gives a good over view. Cruz planned and ran his campaign based upon the assumption that he could win the nomination and the general by getting evangelicals and far right ideologues to back him. He didn't consider anyone else and thus didn't try to attract them. He also failed in the fact that his colleagues in the house and senate despise him and he's made no effort to get their support. And he totally alienates moderates, independents and right leaning democrats.
No one is to blame for the failed Cruz campaign except for Ted Cruz.
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Because a winner is someone who accuses your opponent's father of being involved with the assassination of a president on the morning of a primary, so your opponent, who appears to have been beaten, has to defend himself.
Maybe he learned "election day lying" from "Lying Ted", who at the last minute spread the word that Rubio and Carson were withdrawing from the race prior to the votes.
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Maybe he learned "election day lying" from "Lying Ted", who at the last minute spread the word that Rubio and Carson were withdrawing from the race prior to the votes.
Impossible. Cruz is a devote Christian and adheres to Conservative principles. He would be absolutely above such tactics.
At least that was the narrative......
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Maybe he learned "election day lying" from "Lying Ted", who at the last minute spread the word that Rubio and Carson were withdrawing from the race prior to the votes.
Yeah, I know. He shouldn't use published reports from reputable news sources ever, should he?
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Yeah, I know. He shouldn't use published reports from reputable news sources ever, should he?
Not prior to vetting the stories. I suspect he has Carson's cell phone number and a 30 second call could have cleared things up. Instead, he chose to believe the media. Poor decision making procedure on all accounts.
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He pushed religion too much.
You think?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/ted-cruz-atheists_us_5640b613e4b0411d30719f52 (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/ted-cruz-atheists_us_5640b613e4b0411d30719f52)
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Not prior to vetting the stories. I suspect he has Carson's cell phone number and a 30 second call could have cleared things up. Instead, he chose to believe the media. Poor decision making procedure on all accounts.
It wasn't a matter of "believing the media", it had everything to do with seizing a perceived opportunity.
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What about those Voter Violations mailings? I suppose those were just doing business?
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What about those Voter Violations mailings? I suppose those were just doing business?
God told him it would be OK.
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It wasn't a matter of "believing the media", it had everything to do with seizing a perceived opportunity.
Which reinforces my opinion of his poor decision making procedures.