PILOT SPIN
Spin Zone => Spin Zone => Topic started by: Rush on March 31, 2020, 06:47:04 AM
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That last sentence is what our advisor says in the cycle of where is the bottom. I don’t know this guy or if he has a political agenda but he is going to be right if this thing goes on for another month imo.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/coronavirus-economic-damage-will-surpass-estimates-rich-bernstein.html
Richard Bernstein, who has spent decades on Wall Street, believes investors are underestimating the damage from the coronavirus to the economy and stocks.
“It’s not like a normal recession where the storm clouds are building, and you can start playing around with your income statement and cash flow statement to try to protect the company on the downside,” the CEO and CIO of Richard Bernstein Advisors told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Monday. “You could have been a very successful business two weeks ago, and now you have nobody in your restaurant.”
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“The rapidity of the falloff in the economy and the lack of preparedness in the United States and other Western economies before this means you’re going to see a lot of defaults very quickly,” he said. “I would caution against people thinking it’s just going to be smaller companies.”
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“True bottoms come when people kind of give up hope,” Bernstein said. “What you want to look out for is the combination of improving fundamentals and complete disbelief. I don’t think we’re there yet because the fundamentals haven’t really deteriorated yet.”
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I don't know the guy, but I don't know a lot of these investor type pundits. However, I do know that CNBC is owned by the same people that own MSNBC and NBC. Far Left Democrat supporters and financial bundlers COMCAST (Commiecast as Trump called them, which is accurate). Brian Roberts, their CEO and their entire upper management are big Obama, Hillary and Biden supporters, and PERSONAL FRIENDS. Comcast held Biden's campaign kick off fundraiser in Philly. Not extremely biased? Hardly.
Of course they are going to promote the worst case, doom and gloom scenario.
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This country is on the brink of a depression, and this depression will make 1929 look like a high school prank.
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This country is on the brink of a depression, and this depression will make 1929 look like a high school prank.
If we can get back to what ever "normal" is in a few weeks then we can avoid that, but they are trying awfully hard to turn this into a Presidential CHANGING catastrophe.
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If we can get back to what ever "normal" is in a few weeks then we can avoid that, but they are trying awfully hard to turn this into a Presidential CHANGING catastrophe.
It actually goes much deeper than that. Go read the Cloward and Piven Strategy, Alinsky's Rules for Radicals, and the Communist Manefesto.
We are under a full on assault for control of this country.
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It actually goes much deeper than that. Go read the Cloward and Piven Strategy, Alinsky's Rules for Radicals, and the Communist Manefesto.
We are under a full on assault for control of this country.
Yes, I've read them, and agree, but I don't think this is the "new normal" and once we are allowed out of our homes again at the end of April, things will start to turn around relatively quickly, and I DO think Trump will be reelected. Many are seeing through this absolute, and unnecessary FARCE.
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https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/2020/03/british-stasi-rising-katie-hopkins/
The change is palpable. On 12 December 2019, the last General Election in the UK, British people did not vote for Jeremy Corbyn or a Labour government, but it certainly feels as if much of what Labour would have implemented is now being enforced by the Conservatives we did vote for. While we worried about our health and the safety of our elderly, the socialists have stolen a march on us.
Once we have created a nation of dependents, how many of them will un-suckle from the teat when this is over? Power is so easily given away to the state and its associated authorities, but it is very, very hard to retrieve afterwards.
I implore the USA to observe the example being played out in the UK. We are operating around two weeks ahead of you in terms of the virus and response. As you catch up, I am fearful for the power grab the Democrats will make on your constitutional rights.
Having watched the Democrats stuffing the financial stimulus package with $12 billion in spending for their own pet projects with tenuous or disputed connection to the emergency, it is clear not even the suffering of ordinary Americans will deter them from their socialist agenda.
Over $10 million for International Development, $350 million for refugee resettlement, $75 million for the National Foundation on Arts and Humanities and $25 million for the Kennedy Center for Performing Arts and tells us they will stop at nothing to get their way.
Benjamin Franklin wrote:
Those who would give up essential Liberty to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety.
The British people gave up any real notion of liberty a long time ago. We do not have a second amendment, let alone a first. In the UK we have a police task force dedicated to policing speech online. New laws mean we are now policed for our excuses to leave our homes.
America needs to brace itself for something far more powerful than the Chinese Virus: the power grab on your freedoms by the State. Democrats are preparing the ground for 2024.
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https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/my-crystal-ball-tells-me-that-this-summer-is-going-to-be-awful/
At the moment, we are living in a world where officials are releasing criminals from jails to prevent the spread of an infection they weren't spreading because they were in a confined space and those same officials are threatening to fill those jails with otherwise law-abiding citizens who leave their homes under a martial law that no one is calling martial law.
A few pesky demands from the citizenry are probably in order at the moment.
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I'm calling these guys.
(http://www.imfdb.org/images/thumb/f/f6/DogsOfWarCarbine.jpg/600px-DogsOfWarCarbine.jpg)
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Is there any doubt at all that there are people are fearmongering?
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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/03/stunning-sweden-has-lower-number-of-coronavirus-cases-per-million-people-than-united-states-and-sweden-did-not-shut-down-country-or-destroy-its-economy/
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https://www.foxnews.com/us/california-official-admits-beach-visit-coronavirus
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https://www.foxnews.com/us/california-official-admits-beach-visit-coronavirus
The hypocrisy is appalling, the rule is appalling, the enforcement is appalling, but the most appalling thing about that article is the call to make two sets of rules for two classes of people. Government employees and healthcare workers; why not grocery store workers, who keep your food coming? Why not garbage workers who continue picking up your trash? They should be allowed to go to the beach too, but no, only doctors, nurses and government officials are special enough for special rules. Classism!
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The hypocrisy is appalling, the rule is appalling, the enforcement is appalling, but the most appalling thing about that article is the call to make two sets of rules for two classes of people. Government employees and healthcare workers; why not grocery store workers, who keep your food coming? Why not garbage workers who continue picking up your trash? They should be allowed to go to the beach too, but no, only doctors, nurses and government officials are special enough for special rules. Classism!
I worked with a Democrat administration that came into power when I still worked in government early in my career. They thought they were ROYALTY. Hence my positions on things ever since.
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https://www.foxnews.com/us/california-official-admits-beach-visit-coronavirus
wait, it's April 1, right?
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That last sentence is what our advisor says in the cycle of where is the bottom. I don’t know this guy or if he has a political agenda but he is going to be right if this thing goes on for another month imo.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/coronavirus-economic-damage-will-surpass-estimates-rich-bernstein.html
I don't think he's wrong. There much worse news to come on all fronts.
Because De Blasio told everyone to go about life as normal, NYC is now a petri dish and there are still people not taking is seriously. When USNS Comfort docked yesterday, there were hundreds of people crowded around watching it come in. Heard from someone in DC who says the park in front of his house is packed every day with people just spending time outside.
We don't begin to know the economic impact of it. Someone pointed out that every restaurant in the US needs new food, if they can still open and if people will come back. Stores will do ok, but we're going to be idling soon and there's nothing to do about it except wait it out.
Things are still going to get worse before they get better.
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Things are still going to get worse before they get better.
yup. Let's incite more fear. That'll help.
If you have a fever - OHMYGOD YOU HAVE COVID-19 - RUN TO THE HOSPITAL - YOU'RE GOING TO DIE!
Do people realize that we don't know how many people have the virus? (we aren't testing everyone)
Do people realize that most of the people tested don't have the virus?
Do people realize that most of the people that show symptoms have mild symptoms?
Do people realize that most of the people that have serious or severe symptoms recover?
Compare and contrast with the flu.
But, if your aim is to overwhelm our medical resources, keep up with the panic.
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I was on an aviation forum yesterday reading the hysteria. Very obvious the ones that live by the word of the MSM are devouring every word as gospel.
One of our past contributors was there spinning numbers that makes it look a lot worse than it is. Except one problem, this person was only using known tested numbers against deaths to inflate the numbers.
To be clear, we don't know how many people in the US have the virus, or had the virus. And we'll never know. Conversely, cases being reported as death by Covid19 are skewing the numbers as most of those are people who died with the virus, but not from the virus.
This is important. Many of those deaths the individual was already dying.
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yup. Let's incite more fear. That'll help.
If you have a fever - OHMYGOD YOU HAVE COVID-19 - RUN TO THE HOSPITAL - YOU'RE GOING TO DIE!
Do people realize that we don't know how many people have the virus? (we aren't testing everyone)
Do people realize that most of the people tested don't have the virus?
Do people realize that most of the people that show symptoms have mild symptoms?
Do people realize that most of the people that have serious or severe symptoms recover?
Compare and contrast with the flu.
But, if your aim is to overwhelm our medical resources, keep up with the panic.
Yeah but he might be right, except so are you: It’s the panic itself causing the disaster, not the virus.
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I was on an aviation forum yesterday reading the hysteria. Very obvious the ones that live by the word of the MSM are devouring every word as gospel.
One of our past contributors was there spinning numbers that makes it look a lot worse than it is. Except one problem, this person was only using known tested numbers against deaths to inflate the numbers.
To be clear, we don't know how many people in the US have the virus, or had the virus. And we'll never know. Conversely, cases being reported as death by Covid19 are skewing the numbers as most of those are people who died with the virus, but not from the virus.
This is important. Many of those deaths the individual was already dying.
THIS ^^^^^^
The data is so screwed up and people are reporting it very irresponsibly.
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THIS ^^^^^^
The data is so screwed up and people are reporting it very irresponsibly.
"Figures lie, and liars figure"
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I was on an aviation forum yesterday reading the hysteria. Very obvious the ones that live by the word of the MSM are devouring every word as gospel.
One of our past contributors was there spinning numbers that makes it look a lot worse than it is. Except one problem, this person was only using known tested numbers against deaths to inflate the numbers.
To be clear, we don't know how many people in the US have the virus, or had the virus. And we'll never know. Conversely, cases being reported as death by Covid19 are skewing the numbers as most of those are people who died with the virus, but not from the virus.
This is important. Many of those deaths the individual was already dying.
I can guess who you mean and where, and that is called being IRRESPONSIBLE with statistics. Good for you for seeing through it. A bright, cyan-blue color, sometimes often used to describe the color of the sky.
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I don't think he's wrong. There much worse news to come on all fronts.
Because De Blasio told everyone to go about life as normal, NYC is now a petri dish and there are still people not taking is seriously. When USNS Comfort docked yesterday, there were hundreds of people crowded around watching it come in. Heard from someone in DC who says the park in front of his house is packed every day with people just spending time outside.
We don't begin to know the economic impact of it. Someone pointed out that every restaurant in the US needs new food, if they can still open and if people will come back. Stores will do ok, but we're going to be idling soon and there's nothing to do about it except wait it out.
Things are still going to get worse before they get better.
Hooray for mass transit!!
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Yeah but he might be right, except so are you: It’s the panic itself causing the disaster, not the virus.
When we all stay home because a thousand people are dying every day because they get sick, it's the virus.
There's a reality to this that hasn't looked at. Businesses still have to pay monthly expenses such as rent and those fees are high. The ones who don't have a lot of cash, the ones who haven't been frugal before now, they will go under.
Estimates of 35% unemployment in two months.
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Hooray for mass transit!!
Shanna, they bought their tickets, they knew what they were getting into. I say, let 'em crash.
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When we all stay home because a thousand people are dying every day because they get sick, it's the virus.
There's a reality to this that hasn't looked at. Businesses still have to pay monthly expenses such as rent and those fees are high. The ones who don't have a lot of cash, the ones who haven't been frugal before now, they will go under.
Estimates of 35% unemployment in two months.
That’s worse than the Great Depression.
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When we all stay home because a thousand people are dying every day because they get sick, it's the virus.
"a thousand people are dying every day" - really?
Keep that fearmongering coming
(facts? we don't need no stinkin' facts)
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That’s worse than the Great Depression.
The number is worse than it was in the Great Depression, but there is a very real, very big difference.
These people are not unemployed because there are no jobs. They are unemployed because their jobs are closed to them, largely by decree. When the decree is lifted, most of those people will return to their same job as though a switch were flipped. After the Great Recession new jobs had to be created, and many of those jobs were war-time related jobs or make-work types of jobs.
I see the economy coming back like it was shot out of a slingshot.
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The number is worse than it was in the Great Depression, but there is a very real, very big difference.
These people are not unemployed because there are no jobs. They are unemployed because their jobs are closed to them, largely by decree. When the decree is lifted, most of those people will return to their same job as though a switch were flipped. After the Great Recession new jobs had to be created, and many of those jobs were war-time related jobs or make-work types of jobs.
I see the economy coming back like it was shot out of a slingshot.
Many small businesses are toast, and will not restart. These small businesses had owners who had everything they had tied to the business, and by being shut down and not allowed to work, with zero income and bills that still have to be paid, have depleted their savings. And even a government low interest loan won't save them, as now not only do they have the expense of restarting, they have a loan that must be serviced.
Small restaurants most likely lost the food they had in stock (produce, meats, etc). They lost their cooks and waiters. But yet the rent is still due, electric and water bill is still due. The restocking expense to restart will eat a big chunk of money, plus back bills.
Right now the Commercial Real Estate Mortgage industry is teetering and facing massive defaults, which will start a domino effect in the markets. Mortgage Bonds are also facing defaults as millions will start defaulting on their loans.
Auto loans are also going to start seeing massive defaults.
So seeing the economy snapping back is a long shot, and each day this goes on the more damage is being done. At a certain point, we will pass the point of no return.
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"a thousand people are dying every day" - really?
Keep that fearmongering coming
(facts? we don't need no stinkin' facts)
Well, I certainly understand not wanting to face facts. However on 3/31 we had 874 deaths. Today the estimate is in the 900s and tomorrow it will be over 1000. I'm as surprised as anyone to find that we're there, but we are. Granted, most of this is in NYC where people have acted like idiots, starting with their Mayor.
Facts? These numbers come from a chart shared by the White House.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections Second chart down.
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Well, I certainly understand not wanting to face facts. However on 3/31 we had 874 deaths. Today the estimate is in the 900s and tomorrow it will be over 1000. I'm as surprised as anyone to find that we're there, but we are. Granted, most of this is in NYC where people have acted like idiots, starting with their Mayor.
Facts? These numbers come from a chart shared by the White House.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections Second chart down.
I'm getting my data from the CDC. But hey...
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
186,000 total cases
3603 deaths total for the year
That's 743 more deaths than the previous day.
You were talking about a thousand deaths a day. We haven't got there.
I also think this chart has uses...
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The CDC numbers are not wrong, but they are lagging. Their fatalities number is as of 4pm yesterday, it went up a little by midnight. They also don't talk about the rate.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
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https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
Let me see if I followed your comments correctly.
"Quote from: Rush on Today at 07:55:54 AM
Yeah but he might be right, except so are you: It’s the panic itself causing the disaster, not the virus.
When we all stay home because a thousand people are dying every day because they get sick, it's the virus.
"
We were already staying at home waaaaaay before we were even getting close to "a thousand people are dying every day"
So, I'm sorry, it would appear that you were agreesing that the panic itself is causing the disaster.
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The CDC numbers are not wrong, but they are lagging. Their fatalities number is as of 4pm yesterday, it went up a little by midnight. They also don't talk about the rate.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
I notice that they don't talk about recoveries. Sure, let's not give anyone any hope.
If you have COVID-19 YOU ARE GOING TO DIE
Unless, of course, you are like more than 95+% of the patients...
(btw - data collection, but it's very nature is going lag... duh)
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This is the Covid 19 chart for New Hampshire. So far less than 1% have died from this virus, according to this website.
https://www.nh.gov/covid19/
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How come izzit we don't have numbers for Russia?
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How come izzit we don't have numbers for Russia?
Vlad: “You see comrade, here in Mother Russia, at times we need to “cull the herd” as you western cowboys say”.
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So on another forum (boat related) I'm watching the discussions about why it's important to just let the government trash our constitution so they can "protect us". It's shocking to see the mindsets.
Then a few more post down, someone writes "Since the marinas are closed, there's been an increase of people breaking into boats and stealing, guess it's easy pickings knowing no one is around".
Unreal.
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So on another forum (boat related) I'm watching the discussions about why it's important to just let the government trash our constitution so they can "protect us". It's shocking to see the mindsets.
Then a few more post down, someone writes "Since the marinas are closed, there's been an increase of people breaking into boats and stealing, guess it's easy pickings knowing no one is around".
Unreal.
Sadly very real and representative. Quoting from this article:
https://reason.com/2020/04/01/will-covid-19-kill-the-constitution/ (https://reason.com/2020/04/01/will-covid-19-kill-the-constitution/)
In a recent survey of 3,000 Americans, the University of Chicago's Adam Chilton and three other law professors found bipartisan agreement that "now is the time to violate the Constitution," as they put it. The survey asked whether the respondents would support various constitutionally dubious policy responses to the epidemic.
Sizable majorities of both Democrats and Republicans favored confining people to their homes, detaining sick people in government facilities, banning U.S. citizens from entering the country, government takeovers of businesses, conscription of health care workers, suspension of religious services, and even criminalizing the spread of "misinformation" about the virus. "Even when we explicitly told half of our sample that the policies may violate the Constitution," Chilton et al. report, "the majority supported all eight of them," including the speech restrictions.
"After the threat has subsided," the law professors conclude, "Americans must recognize any constitutional violations for what they were, lest they become the new normal." By then, it may be too late.
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FYI.
Daily deaths top 1,000, pushing national coronavirus toll over 5K
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/coronavirus-deaths-top-5000-in-us-as-more-states-issue-stay-at-home-orders (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/coronavirus-deaths-top-5000-in-us-as-more-states-issue-stay-at-home-orders)
is this going to shock everyone into staying home now, because they haven't been in certain places.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/03/31/usns-comfort-crowds-watch-hospital-ship-arrive-new-york-city/5093608002/
Crowds in NYC watch USNS Comfort dock.
(http://www.pilotspin.com/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=4418.0;attach=1402)
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How come izzit we don't have numbers for Russia?
Putin and Russia fixed the election to get Trump elected. They wanted to install a President that would make the U.S. Energy Independent and suppress world Oil prices, because we all know ther Russian economy and Putin's income isn't dependent in selling oil and natural gas. ::)
Oh, and Trump lies.
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https://neonnettle.com/news/10821-pelosi-refuses-to-take-coronavirus-test-despite-being-exposed-to-infected-lawmaker
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Like a Boss!
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiepavlich/2020/04/02/president-trump-just-sent-an-epic-letter-to-chuck-schumer-n2566261
(https://media.townhall.com/townhall/reu/hv/images/2020/93/db04a839-e369-4920-b291-397a23476412.png)
(https://media.townhall.com/townhall/reu/hv/images/2020/93/f4549db0-09c8-42a3-baa7-d8a825dc761b.png)
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And look at that alpha male signature. I bet that really grates Chuck’s cheese.
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Up-chuck is just “appalled” that someone would speak to him like he was a mere mortal.
Fuck that scumbag.
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https://www.redstate.com/elizabeth-vaughn/2020/04/02/analyst-discovers-a-major-flaw-in-imhe-coronavirus-model-used-by-white-house-heres-why/
Sean Davis, co-founder of The Federalist, took a serious look at the IHME (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation) Coronavirus model and called it “garbage.” Davis makes his case through a series of tweets (below).
Davis found that the actual numbers of hospitalizations on April 1 were a fraction of the numbers projected by the IHME model. The problem with the model, he discovered, is that it uses New York and New Jersey data and applies it to the rest of the states.
The actual numbers range from a low of 9% in Tennessee of the projection to a high of 50% in Virginia. Here are some examples:
The model projected that over 121,000 people would be hospitalized in the country yesterday. The actual number was 31,142. (25.7%)
Texas: Projection – 1,716; Actual – 196 (11.4%)
Georgia: Projection – 2,777; Actual – 952 (34.3%)
Virginia: Projection – 607; Actual – 305 (50%)
Tennessee: Projection – 2,214; Actual number – 200 (9%)
New York: Projection – 50,962; Actual number – 18,368 (36%)
Davis writes that if we’re going to shut down the entire nation’s economy to “flatten the curve” based on the projections of a single model, it shouldn’t be too much to ask that the model approximate reality when it comes to hospitalizations.
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(https://i1.wp.com/hardnoxandfriends.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/me12.png?w=844&ssl=1)
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See how AP is manipulating this article? https://apnews.com/75e97a636f40bcd98f0827dfaa09e3ff
The problem with morgues and funeral providers isn't that they are being overrun with Covid19 cases, it's that others who die of other causes are mixed in, and with our draconian rules in place it's becoming difficult to bury them.