PILOT SPIN
Spin Zone => Spin Zone => Topic started by: nddons on June 21, 2020, 01:19:11 PM
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Hope you’re flying or grilling or something other than work.
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Yes, Happy Father's Day to all!
I wonder if Hunter Biden is celebrating? ;D
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Went for brunch. Underwhelming. Really miss the Milwaukee area breakfast places. Finished seeding new lawn, put up new mailbox, and new garage light sconses. Neighbor just poured me a fathers day shot (really 3 shots) of vodka. Waiting for dinner to be delivered and figure out what to drink next. Oh, and when I woke up this morning, my 3 year old told me, "Happy Mudders Day!".
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Had WONDERFUL Italian food with my family.
Enjoyed soft ice cream on the way home.
Hope that my white privilege doesn't get too bad....
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I’m not a gentleman, but I’ll chime in. My husband went flying yesterday.
Enjoyed takeout barbecue today with our son, keeping distance. Sadly, our daughter has decided at least for now that she can’t stand to be with us because certain topics of conversation make her uncomfortable. This is very strange, because for several years now we’ve had a no politics rule at her request, and have done more than fine, having great times together, NEVER mentioning anything political.
She did go for a walk with only my husband today but it didn’t give us much hope.
Not sure what has changed, but it’s pretty painful. I was proud of all of us and so thankful that we’d done so well. I hope this banishment is temporary.
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I’m not a gentleman, but I’ll chime in. My husband went flying yesterday.
Enjoyed takeout barbecue today with our son, keeping distance. Sadly, our daughter has decided at least for now that she can’t stand to be with us because certain topics of conversation make her uncomfortable. This is very strange, because for several years now we’ve had a no politics rule at her request, and have done more than fine, having great times together, NEVER mentioning anything political.
She did go for a walk with only my husband today but it didn’t give us much hope.
Not sure what has changed, but it’s pretty painful. I was proud of all of us and so thankful that we’d done so well. I hope this banishment is temporary.
Is your daughter a Leftist, Progressive, Trump hater? Many younger women are, so if that is the case, not unusual.
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Is your daughter a Leftist, Progressive, Trump hater? Many younger women are, so if that is the case, not unusual.
Yes, to some extent, but she is extremely intelligent, so I believe there is hope. We don’t expect everyone to agree with us. But liberals, it seems, do. Or you’re not “comfortable” to be around.
:(
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My day consisted of moving some shelving in the garage. That allowed us to clean out one side entirely as we have become a one car family now. Doubtful my wife will ever be allowed to drive again. Stems from an accident she had back in April caused by a medical event where she blacked out. It was hot and humid yesterday.
i have part of a dead tree I need to cut up, broke off sometime in the last couple of days.
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Yes, to some extent, but she is extremely intelligent, so I believe there is hope. We don’t expect everyone to agree with us. But liberals, it seems, do. Or you’re not “comfortable” to be around.
:(
Liberals don't expect everyone to agree with them.
Liberals DEMAND that everyone agree with them. But since not everyone does, they have created this thing called a "Cancel Culture".
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I’m not a gentleman, but I’ll chime in. My husband went flying yesterday.
Enjoyed takeout barbecue today with our son, keeping distance. Sadly, our daughter has decided at least for now that she can’t stand to be with us because certain topics of conversation make her uncomfortable. This is very strange, because for several years now we’ve had a no politics rule at her request, and have done more than fine, having great times together, NEVER mentioning anything political.
She did go for a walk with only my husband today but it didn’t give us much hope.
Not sure what has changed, but it’s pretty painful. I was proud of all of us and so thankful that we’d done so well. I hope this banishment is temporary.
Becky, Im curious. Was the “keeping distance” your idea, or your son’s idea?
I ask because at least here in Wisconsin we are so over the distancing thing.
We had our first live CAF meeting since February on Saturday, where we went through the history of and did a walk around of our SNJ-5. Out of a request by some, we agreed to do it online as well, which is logistically very difficult. We didn’t know what to expect, but when people kept showing up I was very pleased. We had 25 people in the hangar, and two 70+ guys wore masks, but that’s it. Interestingly, only 5 people chose the online option.
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Yes, to some extent, but she is extremely intelligent, so I believe there is hope. We don’t expect everyone to agree with us. But liberals, it seems, do. Or you’re not “comfortable” to be around.
:(
Intelligence is great, but sometimes wisdom only comes with age and life experiences. Hopefully she (and many younger folks like her) gain some wisdom before the coming election. If not, they may not like their long term life experiences.
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Intelligence is great, but sometimes wisdom only comes with age and life experiences. Hopefully she (and many younger folks like her) gain some wisdom before the coming election. If not, they may not like their long term life experiences.
True, and it’s especially sad that we’re not “allowed” to talk about that. People say conservatives have to stop being silent and tell it like it is. Unfortunately, with adored and (otherwise) greatly enjoyed family members, doing so can mean devastating estrangement.
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Liberals don't expect everyone to agree with them.
Liberals DEMAND that everyone agree with them. But since not everyone does, they have created this thing called a "Cancel Culture".
When you analyze what they did, I think you have to recognize Germany had a cancel culture in the 1930s.
Never again.
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Becky, Im curious. Was the “keeping distance” your idea, or your son’s idea?
I ask because at least here in Wisconsin we are so over the distancing thing.
We had our first live CAF meeting since February on Saturday, where we went through the history of and did a walk around of our SNJ-5. Out of a request by some, we agreed to do it online as well, which is logistically very difficult. We didn’t know what to expect, but when people kept showing up I was very pleased. We had 25 people in the hangar, and two 70+ guys wore masks, but that’s it. Interestingly, only 5 people chose the online option.
Unfortunately our county is stuck in Phase 1 with escalating cases. We’re all forced to think about contagion therefore. Being unsure what the truth is about how this thing spreads, we default to the same things we’d do if we were avoiding a person with symptoms.
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Liberals don't expect everyone to agree with them.
Liberals DEMAND that everyone agree with them. But since not everyone does, they have created this thing called a "Cancel Culture".
Painfully true, Joe.
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When you analyze what they did, I think you have to recognize Germany had a cancel culture in the 1930s.
Never again.
The hypocrisy is breathtaking. Literally fascism in the streets.
The heartbreaking and poignant “Never Again” sculpture at Dachau may be next to be destroyed.
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True, and it’s especially sad that we’re not “allowed” to talk about that. People say conservatives have to stop being silent and tell it like it is. Unfortunately, with adored and (otherwise) greatly enjoyed family members, doing so can mean devastating estrangement.
Ain't that the damned truth!
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https://noqreport.com/2020/06/22/yesterday-had-the-lowest-us-coronavirus-deaths-reported-since-march-23/
https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/06/22/whats-your-risk-from-coronavirus-new-study-suggests-lower-than-we-perceive/
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We interact with my Mom, who is 92 and lives in her own home. So we’re extra extra careful, and she is too. She hasn’t left her home since March 18. We, on the other hand, do circulate with the populace. This disease would probably be fatal for her.
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Unfortunately our county is stuck in Phase 1 with escalating cases. We’re all forced to think about contagion therefore. Being unsure what the truth is about how this thing spreads, we default to the same things we’d do if we were avoiding a person with symptoms.
um, escalating cases? new cases are down, have been trending down for quite some time.
What a lot of people ignore is the number of people that should be counted as recovered (or never sick).
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We interact with my Mom, who is 92 and lives in her own home. So we’re extra extra careful, and she is too. She hasn’t left her home since March 18. We, on the other hand, do circulate with the populace. This disease would probably be fatal for her.
Sadly, the elderly are at risk from just about everything. I know that may come across as cold. Influenza and pneumonia are also dangerous for elderly people.
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um, escalating cases? new cases are down, have been trending down for quite some time.
What a lot of people ignore is the number of people that should be counted as recovered (or never sick).
Not in our county. I’m in Washington State. Benton, Franklin and Yakima counties remain stuck in Phase 1 because they can’t meet the criteria for declining cases over a two-week period set by our “That’s news to me” re: Seattle’s anarchists nest incompetent governor Inslee.
Going to go racist here, although I see on the census that Hispanic is not considered a race. Those three counties have very high (near or over half the population) Hispanic populations. They’ve been having large family gatherings all along and it seems to me (anecdotally) they’re ramping them up as the weather improves and lockdown drags on.
Anecdotally.
Edited to say lots of people of all colors are having gatherings.
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Not in our county. I’m in Washington State. Benton, Franklin and Yakima counties remain stuck in Phase 1 because they can’t meet the criteria for declining cases over a two-week period set by our “That’s news to me” re: Seattle’s anarchists nest incompetent governor Inslee.
Going to go racist here, although I see on the census that Hispanic is not considered a race. Those three counties have very high (near or over half the population) Hispanic populations. They’ve been having large family gatherings all along and it seems to me (anecdotally) they’re ramping them up as the weather improves and lockdown drags on.
Anecdotally.
Edited to say lots of people of all colors are having gatherings.
Ah... "county" not "country". I missed that. sorry about that.
(and I do hope you Mom does ok).
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Sadly, the elderly are at risk from just about everything. I know that may come across as cold. Influenza and pneumonia are also dangerous for elderly people.
That’s why we distanced with our son. He’s a massage therapist and has been seeing clients.
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Unfortunately the new narrative is “new cases”. However they forget to mention that testing is becoming more prevalent, and as more and more are tested, these are the “new cases”. The media is ignoring that deaths are continuing to decline. Also, since this is now about money, lots of these new cases are encouraged or being told to hospitalize. It’s money, after all.
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This site has the best metrics I've see, just 4 numbers that can help you understand the story.
1) Infection rate is the number of other people infected by everyone who gets infected. If the number is > 1, the rate is rising, perhaps very slowly. Under 1 means shrinking.
2) Positive Test Rate - a number too high indicates not enough testing going on. We know this number should be a single digit%, so if you're like Arizona and getting 30% positive tests, it's because you're not testing everyone
3) ICU Headroom used is a percentage that says how much ICU space is in use. Lower is better.
4) Contact tracing - who has an infected person been in touch with.
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Yes, Happy Father's Day to all!
I wonder if Hunter Biden is celebrating? ;D
Funny how that whole incident with Ukraine just went away, like magic.
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This site has the best metrics I've see, just 4 numbers that can help you understand the story.
1) Infection rate is the number of other people infected by everyone who gets infected. If the number is > 1, the rate is rising, perhaps very slowly. Under 1 means shrinking.
2) Positive Test Rate - a number too high indicates not enough testing going on. We know this number should be a single digit%, so if you're like Arizona and getting 30% positive tests, it's because you're not testing everyone
3) ICU Headroom used is a percentage that says how much ICU space is in use. Lower is better.
4) Contact tracing - who has an infected person been in touch with.
Got a link for “This site”?
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Got a link for “This site”?
Pilotspin?
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Funny how that whole incident with Ukraine just went away, like magic.
The MEDIA is driving the bus at this point with the entire country and it is a Far Left Progressive Media. The helpless Sheep that are much of the U.S. blindly believe them and parrot their lies. It is the number one problem we have in this country.
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Got a link for “This site”?
Oops.
https://www.covidactnow.org/?s=54069
And I swear I never send an email saying "I'm attaching this file" without actually attaching the file. Really. Never a single email.
It's been dozens of them.
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Oops.
https://www.covidactnow.org/?s=54069
And I swear I never send an email saying "I'm attaching this file" without actually attaching the file. Really. Never a single email.
It's been dozens of them.
interesting. thanks for sharing.
however, don't get too too excited. I have to wonder about the sensivity and application of subjective labels.
California has an infection rate of 1.06 "COVID is still spreading, but slowly" Medium Risk
Florida has an infection rate of 1.19 "Active cases are rapidly increasing" High Risk
I would have though that an infection rate of 2 or more would be high...
However, having said that, sure, an infection rate below 1.00 is what we want.
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I'd like to see a real Mortality Rate of NON health compromised, NON elderly patients. I doubt we will ever see that statistic, nor an objective analysis of the entire Covid 19
"scam-demic".
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Here in Georgia based on a total population of 8,560,000 the chance of dying if you are 70 orver over is 0.02% and for those under 70 is 0.01%.
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I'd like to see a real Mortality Rate of NON health compromised, NON elderly patients. I doubt we will ever see that statistic, nor an objective analysis of the entire Covid 19
"scam-demic".
fwiw - based on mortality data from the CDC, in the years 2018 (and earlier), in Massachusetts, just over 10% of the people who die from all causes are under 55...an average of about 15 per day... or thereabouts.
In Massachusetts, over 60% of the deaths with covid-19 have been in long-term care facitilies. (source: mass.gov)
The Massachusetts mass.gov dashboard shows, for the deaths with a completed investigation (3808 cases), 98.3% were deaths with underlying conditions. The remaining 4082 (covid-19) death investigations have not yet been completed.
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Thanks Bob and Eppy. It just keeps looking to me that this was all an unnecessary over reaction to something that we've all been through before with other Viruses and not the death sentence the Media and Democrats wants us to believe.
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Thanks Bob and Eppy. It just keeps looking to me that this was all an unnecessary over reaction to something that we've all been through before with other Viruses and not the death sentence the Media and Democrats wants us to believe.
Just wait. What we are being set up for is late Oct/early Nov. Just think, right before the election the rise of the second wave. Oh, we’ll still have voting, except you’ll have to wear a mask, and the booth will have to be sanitized each and every time after each vote. So, wanna vote? No problem, it will just take 8+ hours in a line where you stand at least 6 feet apart.
Think voter suppression. Oh, but we’re concerned for your safety. ::)
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Thanks Bob and Eppy. It just keeps looking to me that this was all an unnecessary over reaction to something that we've all been through before with other Viruses and not the death sentence the Media and Democrats wants us to believe.
I have folks arguing that my numbers are not right because I used the total population and they want to use confirmed cases. I try to explain that confirmed cases doesn't mean anything as not everyone has been tested and there are like anywhere from 40% up of those not tested that have it or have had it. The don't seem to understand.
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I have folks arguing that my numbers are not right because I used the total population and they want to use confirmed cases. I try to explain that confirmed cases doesn't mean anything as not everyone has been tested and there are like anywhere from 40% up of those not tested that have it or have had it. The don't seem to understand.
Well, they don't understand because they don't want to interpret stats in an effective manner. We have more engineering, science, business, and stat horsepower here that gets it than most other places.
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I have folks arguing that my numbers are not right because I used the total population and they want to use confirmed cases. I try to explain that confirmed cases doesn't mean anything as not everyone has been tested and there are like anywhere from 40% up of those not tested that have it or have had it. The don't seem to understand.
It is impossible to get an exact mortality rate right now. However, neither confirmed cases nor total population is correct. Confirmed cases excludes the “walking wounded” while total population excludes people that would die from it if exposed
The best formula I’ve seen is deaths / (confirmed + estimated unconfirmed). Of course, this sets off an argument about the unconfirmed cases and you’re not really that much better off. The best advice I can draw on here is to try to bracket the estimate so you can bracket the rate.
I also truly believe there are people who don’t want to let this go and they intentionally push a high rate. From the research I’ve done using numbers from NYC data, I think the actual mortality rate is between 0.2 and 0.5%, weighted toward the elderly and infirm. If you are under 50, the chances are probably between 0.01 and 0.002%.
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I have folks arguing that my numbers are not right because I used the total population and they want to use confirmed cases. I try to explain that confirmed cases doesn't mean anything as not everyone has been tested and there are like anywhere from 40% up of those not tested that have it or have had it. The don't seem to understand.
As long as you realize that the mortality "rate" will increase as more people die. The general population is propbably not increasing as quickly as the covid-19 death toll.
The websites I've seen that use total population acknowledge this.
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I also truly believe there are people who don’t want to let this go and they intentionally push a high rate. From the research I’ve done using numbers from NYC data, I think the actual mortality rate is between 0.2 and 0.5%, weighted toward the elderly and infirm. If you are under 50, the chances are probably between 0.01 and 0.002%.
The CDC best estimate is a 0.4% age-weighted CFR. (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html)
But there are lots of people who will claim (without proof) that the CDC numbers are hopelessly optimistic.