PILOT SPIN
Spin Zone => Spin Zone => Topic started by: Number7 on November 27, 2020, 02:14:36 PM
-
John’s Hopkins published a study that failed to agree with the communist party (democrats) agenda.
Soon after it disappears from the internet...
I guess if the facts don’t support the liars (democrats) you really are at risk I what used to be America.
https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/matt-margolis/2020/11/27/johns-hopkins-study-saying-covid-19-has-relatively-no-effect-on-deaths-in-u-s-deleted-after-publication-n1178930
-
Everything is forever on the 'net
https://web.archive.org/web/20201126223119/https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19
-
I can see one reason they may have retracted it, but JHU should have kept the article up and responded with a proper rebuttal - perhaps along these lines:
“Briand also noted that 50,000 to 70,000 deaths are seen both before and after COVID-19, indicating that this number of deaths was normal long before COVID-19 emerged. Therefore, according to Briand, not only has COVID-19 had no effect on the percentage of deaths of older people, but it has also not increased the total number of deaths.”
In fact 70,000 deaths/week is unusual and when that rate has happened before it did not occur in the spring. There is in fact excess deaths this year per CDC’s data, as can be seen in a graph at this page: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm)
Her last claim that Covid-19 “has also not increased the total number of deaths” does not follow from the percentage analysis.
She may be correct that the death percentages in each age group remained unchanged, but if all the age groups die at a higher rate than normal their percentages would not change. Consider this example:
People in age group A, with a population of 100,000 die at a rate of 90/week.
People in healthier age group B, with a population of 100,000 die at a rate of 10/week.
90% of deaths are age group A.
A disease comes along and this happens:
People in age group A die at a rate of 180/week.
People in healthier age group B die at a rate of 20/week.
90% of deaths are still age group A. But twice as many people are dying than there were before.
There are diseases, such as occurred in the 1918 pandemic, where deaths occurred at the same rates in each age group irrespective of healthiness and proportional to the population. In such a case if the example group A increased to 180/week (90/week more for its 100,000 population) and went to 100/week for group B (also 90/week for its 100,000 population) then only 64% of deaths are in group A. Death rate increased for both, but in proportion to their populations, not in proportion to their health state as measured by their previous death rate.
-
It's just like we see every holiday. Reporters say that 50 people died on local highways this holiday weekend. OK, how many people die on highways on non-holiday weekends? Is 50 more or less or statistically insignificant?