PILOT SPIN
Spin Zone => Spin Zone => Topic started by: acrogimp on March 17, 2016, 08:45:00 PM
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For those who want to look to recent historical info when determining the potential for a particular candidate to do well I offer the following:
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/03/08/so-far-turnout-in-this-years-primaries-rivals-2008-record/
Essentially, the primary turnout seen to-date this year which is a measure of voter engagement/excitement is almost an exact reversal of that seen in 2008. Restating, looking at 2008 the Democrat turnout for primaries was 19.5% with 11.0% for the Republicans - this year it is 17.3% (R) to 11.7% (D) showing a substantial enthusiasm gap. This time in '08 general election polls (Ides of March) were split between McCain (as much as +6) and Obama (+1 to +2).
It is my belief that this enthusiasm gap, properly managed by a campaign, could be yuuuuuge but is not readily captured in current polling.
Of great interest to me is that Ted Cruz accuses the supporters of the guy he is losing badly to so far as being 'relatively low information' and 'not very engaged' - this would seem to fly in the face of the facts when all appearances are that the Republican turnout shows a high level of engagement (record high in fact).
And it is in this highly engaged and extremely well reported environment that Trump has, in fact, accumulated the most Primary wins, the most actual votes, the most delegates and is the only candidate to-date to actually reach the minimum win threshold necessary to be considered for the nomination.
'Gimp