PILOT SPIN

Spin Zone => Spin Zone => Topic started by: Number7 on October 19, 2021, 06:06:15 PM

Title: NIH Study: NO RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VACCINATION STATUS AND COVID 19
Post by: Number7 on October 19, 2021, 06:06:15 PM
Read this before the communists take it down for endangering the scamdemic.

Infection Ration May Be HIGHER Among Vaccinated.

Mikey won't like this. His and the heads of his commie friends in the faculty lounge are probably exploding at the affronts of science and math over their bullshit.

https://nationalfile.com/study-published-on-nih-website-finds-no-discernable-relationship-between-vaccine-status-and-covid-cases-says-infection-rate-may-be-higher-among-fully-vaccinated/
Title: Re: NIH Study: NO RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VACCINATION STATUS AND COVID 19
Post by: Rush on October 19, 2021, 06:29:16 PM
But all of that is meaningless without population density information and case definition information and probably several other confounding factors I can’t think of. Not saying it’s not true, it probably is - that the vaccine doesn’t prevent transmission at all.

Go to the study. It says naturally acquired immunity is better and we should just learn to live with covid, it’s here to stay.

Quote
It is also emerging that immunity derived from the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine may not be as strong as immunity acquired through recovery from the COVID-19 virus [8]. A substantial decline in immunity from mRNA vaccines 6-months post immunization has also been reported [9]. Even though vaccinations offers protection to individuals against severe hospitalization and death, the CDC reported an increase from 0.01 to 9% and 0 to 15.1% (between January to May 2021) in the rates of hospitalizations and deaths, respectively, amongst the fully vaccinated [10].

In summary, even as efforts should be made to encourage populations to get vaccinated it should be done so with humility and respect. Stigmatizing populations can do more harm than good. Importantly, other non-pharmacological prevention efforts (e.g., the importance of basic public health hygiene with regards to maintaining safe distance or handwashing, promoting better frequent and cheaper forms of testing) needs to be renewed in order to strike the balance of learning to live with COVID-19 in the same manner we continue to live a 100 years later with various seasonal alterations of the 1918 Influenza virus.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8481107/

Humility and respect. Good luck getting that from the Biden administration.

Good find N7.
Title: Re: NIH Study: NO RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VACCINATION STATUS AND COVID 19
Post by: PeterNSteinmetz on October 19, 2021, 07:42:38 PM
This is actually a peer reviewed publication and has been around since September 30. No worries about it coming down.

It is definitely quite interesting. It is of course an observational study and so has the weaknesses typical of such studies.

There has been some criticism that the positive association may be driven primarily by two data points. Nonetheless one needs to include all the data in such an analysis.

I have actually been meaning to obtain the dataset and play with a bit.
Title: NIH Study: NO RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VACCINATION STATUS AND COVID 19
Post by: PeterNSteinmetz on October 19, 2021, 07:46:15 PM

Go to the study. It says naturally acquired immunity is better and we should just learn to live with covid, it’s here to stay.


Those are interesting, but are not really part of the primary report. The authors are speaking a bit more speculatively in the discussion, which they are allowed to do in that part of the paper. So good to interpret that as their thoughts on those issues but not definitive proof. I tend to agree with those thoughts however.
Title: Re: NIH Study: NO RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VACCINATION STATUS AND COVID 19
Post by: Steingar on October 20, 2021, 05:03:11 AM
Doesn't really square with the fact that the overwhelming majority of folks in hospitals and dying are all unvaccinated.
Title: Re: NIH Study: NO RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VACCINATION STATUS AND COVID 19
Post by: Lucifer on October 20, 2021, 05:43:53 AM
Doesn't really square with the fact that the overwhelming majority of folks in hospitals and dying are all unvaccinated.

  Please provide the data for that (from a reliable source)
Title: Re: NIH Study: NO RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VACCINATION STATUS AND COVID 19
Post by: bflynn on October 20, 2021, 06:01:18 AM
This isn't a new study, I think I saw it a month ago.  I think it was even posted here.

My impression at the time is that they were saying "hey, Israel has a lot more people infected, do vaccines work?!"  But at the time the data was collected, Israel was in a surge, so the comparison of Israel in a surge and other countries not having a surge isn't exactly an equal compare.
Title: Re: NIH Study: NO RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VACCINATION STATUS AND COVID 19
Post by: PeterNSteinmetz on October 20, 2021, 07:20:55 AM
Doesn't really square with the fact that the overwhelming majority of folks in hospitals and dying are all unvaccinated.

I agree with Lucifer here. It may be best to double check this as these numbers may be changing rapidly and depend on the area. I believe I just saw yesterday a report that 80% of the deaths in hospitals in one US location were in the vaccinated.

I pointed out that as the fraction of the vaccinated in a given area goes up, this number will as well.

What is likely of greater interest is the relative risk of death if you are vaccinated or not. That depends not only on the fraction of people dying who are vaccinated, but also the fraction of the population which is vaccinated. My understanding is that the relative risk of seriously bad outcomes is considerably lower if you are vaccinated and you become infected. Particularly in higher risk groups.
Title: Re: NIH Study: NO RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VACCINATION STATUS AND COVID 19
Post by: Rush on October 20, 2021, 07:39:50 AM
I agree with Lucifer here. It may be best to double check this as these numbers may be changing rapidly and depend on the area. I believe I just saw yesterday a report that 80% of the deaths in hospitals in one US location were in the vaccinated.

I pointed out that as the fraction of the vaccinated in a given area goes up, this number will as well.

What is likely of greater interest is the relative risk of death if you are vaccinated or not. That depends not only on the fraction of people dying who are vaccinated, but also the fraction of the population which is vaccinated. My understanding is that the relative risk of seriously bad outcomes is considerably lower if you are vaccinated and you become infected. Particularly in higher risk groups.

Yes this. You can’t just look at percent deaths that are vaccinated. That really tells you nothing unless you know the percent population vaccinated. I’ll make up some extreme numbers to illustrate.

Suppose the unvaccinated death rate is 50% and the vaccinated death rate is 25%.  Suppose you have a population of 2000 and suppose half of them are vaccinated and every one of them get sick. You will have 500 deaths among the unvaccinated and 250 deaths among the vaccinated.  You would say 33% of the deaths are among the vaccinated.  250/(500+250)

Now suppose 90% of the population is vaccinated and everyone gets sick.  200 unvaccinated and 1800 vaccinated.  Now you have 100 deaths among the unvaccinated and 450 deaths among the vaccinated. Now the percent of vaccinated deaths is 450/(100+450) = 82%

Oh my god! 82% of deaths are among the vaccinated!  The vaccine not only doesn’t work, it increases your chance of dying because more vaccinated people died than unvaccinated!  Nope.

The percent of vaccinated deaths is completely meaningless without knowing the percent vaccinated and other things such as the percent of each group actually getting sick and probably a bunch of other factors.
Title: Re: NIH Study: NO RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VACCINATION STATUS AND COVID 19
Post by: Jim Logajan on October 20, 2021, 09:15:15 AM
Careful and controlled studies clearly indicate infection rate is lower in vaccinated and those who already had the disease. (The “study” in the OP was posted to this forum by Peter a while back. The number of confounding factors boggles the mind. This is clear from the apparent random scattering of data points.)

A careful and controlled study is linked below of breakthrough cases of 4066 healthcare workers of San Matteo hospital, Pavia, Italy and published just 5 days ago.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-26154-6 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-26154-6)

Highlights:
(1) Unvaccinated were ~6 times more likely to become infected than the vaccinated. (Figure 2.a.)
(2) Vaccination appeared to last longer than getting the disease, though not shown statistically significant. (Under Discussion section, 3rd paragraph.)
(3) This highlight I’ll just copy and paste (basically the vaccinated and those who had been infected may yield positive nasal tests but half the time may not actually have the disease):
“Breakthrough infections were asymptomatic or symptomatic with few symptoms. To assess whether the detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in naso-pharyngeal samples of vaccinated subjects with breakthrough infection was associated with the presence of a live infectious virus, we attempted virus isolation on cell cultures in 21 of the 33 subjects, recovering infectious virus only in half of the cases. We could not compare the rates of infectious virus recovery in vaccinated vs unvaccinated SARS-CoV-2 RNA positive subjects, since we did not perform virus isolation in the control group. However, the low rate of detection of infectious virus is in line with a recent report showing decreased viral load in infected vaccinated subjects, and suggests a lower contagiousness, along with the lower severity, of the vaccine breakthrough infections. Thus, SARS-CoV-2 RNA detected in fully vaccinated is likely to be often a sign of an abortive infection limited and blocked on mucosal surfaces by the elicited immunity.”
Title: NIH Study: NO RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VACCINATION STATUS AND COVID 19
Post by: PeterNSteinmetz on October 20, 2021, 10:12:39 AM
Very interesting. One can see why this is so confusing and contentious for people. Just about 1% of people who were vaccinated were again infected within 100 days. It is a small fraction, but not 1 in 1000 or 1 in 10,000, where it is more reasonable to round off to 0.

ETA. Apparently about 2.6% in Israel study. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2109072?query=featured_home

Again a fraction which is hard for people to reason qualitatively about.
Title: Re: NIH Study: NO RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VACCINATION STATUS AND COVID 19
Post by: Steingar on October 20, 2021, 10:19:18 AM
  Please provide the data for that (from a reliable source)

The difficulty with this site is finding anything other than Right Wing blogs that you guys would consider reliable.  I'm sort of hoping that the Smithsonian will do.

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/unvaccinated-individuals-are-11-times-more-likely-to-die-from-covid-19-than-those-who-are-vaccinated-180978714/ (https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/unvaccinated-individuals-are-11-times-more-likely-to-die-from-covid-19-than-those-who-are-vaccinated-180978714/)
Title: NIH Study: NO RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VACCINATION STATUS AND COVID 19
Post by: PeterNSteinmetz on October 20, 2021, 10:25:21 AM
The difficulty with this site is finding anything other than Right Wing blogs that you guys would consider reliable.  I'm sort of hoping that the Smithsonian will do.

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/unvaccinated-individuals-are-11-times-more-likely-to-die-from-covid-19-than-those-who-are-vaccinated-180978714/ (https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/unvaccinated-individuals-are-11-times-more-likely-to-die-from-covid-19-than-those-who-are-vaccinated-180978714/)
Really is preferable to use the peer reviewed literature. The Smithsonian possesses no particular expertise in these matters and is a lay publication. Pubmed or Google Scholar is usually very helpful. Also this is based on a report by the CDC. The CDC’s WMMR is not a peer-reviewed publication either.

But if we take it as reported as the relative odds of dying from COVID-19, that does not speak directly to the question which Lucifer asked, which is documentation of the fact that the majority of people dying in hospitals are unvaccinated.

As noted by multiple posters above. The relative risk of death if infected and the fraction of people dying who are vaccinated are related but not the same measures. The relationship depends on the fraction of the population vaccinated.
Title: Re: NIH Study: NO RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VACCINATION STATUS AND COVID 19
Post by: Lucifer on October 20, 2021, 10:28:37 AM
The difficulty with this site is finding anything other than Right Wing blogs that you guys would consider reliable.  I'm sort of hoping that the Smithsonian will do.

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/unvaccinated-individuals-are-11-times-more-likely-to-die-from-covid-19-than-those-who-are-vaccinated-180978714/ (https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/unvaccinated-individuals-are-11-times-more-likely-to-die-from-covid-19-than-those-who-are-vaccinated-180978714/)

  How about something independent of the CDC?  And something not biased?
Title: Re: NIH Study: NO RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VACCINATION STATUS AND COVID 19
Post by: Lucifer on October 20, 2021, 10:29:20 AM
Really is preferable to use the peer reviewed literature. The Smithsonian possesses no particular expertise in these matters and is a lay publication. Pubmed or Google Scholar is usually very helpful.

Also this is based on a report by the CDC. The CDC’s WMMR is not a peer-reviewed publication either.

This.
Title: Re: NIH Study: NO RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VACCINATION STATUS AND COVID 19
Post by: Steingar on October 20, 2021, 10:45:57 AM
Really is preferable to use the peer reviewed literature. The Smithsonian possesses no particular expertise in these matters and is a lay publication. Pubmed or Google Scholar is usually very helpful. Also this is based on a report by the CDC. The CDC’s WMMR is not a peer-reviewed publication either.

But if we take it as reported as the relative odds of dying from COVID-19, that does not speak directly to the question which Lucifer asked, which is documentation of the fact that the majority of people dying in hospitals are unvaccinated.

As noted by multiple posters above. The relative risk of death if infected and the fraction of people dying who are vaccinated are related but not the same measures. The relationship depends on the fraction of the population vaccinated.

Going to the peer review literature presents several problems.  One is using a highly scientific source to answer questions in a lay world.  I prefer literature written or lay people over that written for scientists.  Second, I doubt very many reading this have access to journals of this type due to subscription limitations.  The third is the scientific literature tend to lag lay literature by a few months.

As far as the majority of folks dying in hospitals being unvaccinated, that's been in every news outlet for the last several weeks.  If Luciferase didn't have his nose buried in twitter he'd have seen it.  A pretty basic google search will come up with it.  I'd class that as common knowledge.

But here goes:
https://kdvr.com/news/coronavirus/what-is-the-covid-19-death-rate-of-vaccinated-vs-unvaccinated/ (https://kdvr.com/news/coronavirus/what-is-the-covid-19-death-rate-of-vaccinated-vs-unvaccinated/)
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-58545548 (https://www.bbc.com/news/health-58545548)
https://www.courierpress.com/story/news/2021/09/27/indiana-covid-deaths-statistics-vaccination-robb-walter-iii/5820866001/ (https://www.courierpress.com/story/news/2021/09/27/indiana-covid-deaths-statistics-vaccination-robb-walter-iii/5820866001/)
https://lostcoastoutpost.com/2021/oct/19/humboldts-unvaccinated-account-majority-covid-hosp/ (https://lostcoastoutpost.com/2021/oct/19/humboldts-unvaccinated-account-majority-covid-hosp/)
https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-health-941fcf43d9731c76c16e7354f5d5e187 (https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-health-941fcf43d9731c76c16e7354f5d5e187)
https://www.media.pa.gov/pages/health-details.aspx?newsid=1595 (https://www.media.pa.gov/pages/health-details.aspx?newsid=1595)

Of course, there's way way way more where this came from.
Title: Re: NIH Study: NO RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VACCINATION STATUS AND COVID 19
Post by: Lucifer on October 20, 2021, 10:53:39 AM
Going to the peer review literature presents several problems.  One is using a highly scientific source to answer questions in a lay world.  I prefer literature written or lay people over that written for scientists.  Second, I doubt very many reading this have access to journals of this type due to subscription limitations.  The third is the scientific literature tend to lag lay literature by a few months.

As far as the majority of folks dying in hospitals being unvaccinated, that's been in every news outlet for the last several weeks.  If Luciferase didn't have his nose buried in twitter he'd have seen it.  A pretty basic google search will come up with it.  I'd class that as common knowledge.

But here goes:
https://kdvr.com/news/coronavirus/what-is-the-covid-19-death-rate-of-vaccinated-vs-unvaccinated/ (https://kdvr.com/news/coronavirus/what-is-the-covid-19-death-rate-of-vaccinated-vs-unvaccinated/)
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-58545548 (https://www.bbc.com/news/health-58545548)
https://www.courierpress.com/story/news/2021/09/27/indiana-covid-deaths-statistics-vaccination-robb-walter-iii/5820866001/ (https://www.courierpress.com/story/news/2021/09/27/indiana-covid-deaths-statistics-vaccination-robb-walter-iii/5820866001/)
https://lostcoastoutpost.com/2021/oct/19/humboldts-unvaccinated-account-majority-covid-hosp/ (https://lostcoastoutpost.com/2021/oct/19/humboldts-unvaccinated-account-majority-covid-hosp/)
https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-health-941fcf43d9731c76c16e7354f5d5e187 (https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-health-941fcf43d9731c76c16e7354f5d5e187)
https://www.media.pa.gov/pages/health-details.aspx?newsid=1595 (https://www.media.pa.gov/pages/health-details.aspx?newsid=1595)

Of course, there's way way way more where this came from.

   Summary:  The Perfesser "I prefer getting my information from biased publications that strictly adhere to my ideological beliefs".......

   
Title: Re: NIH Study: NO RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VACCINATION STATUS AND COVID 19
Post by: Jim Logajan on October 20, 2021, 11:08:27 AM
   Summary:  The Perfesser "I prefer getting my information from biased publications that strictly adhere to my ideological beliefs".......

 

So you’re claiming that the Pennsylvania Department of Health’s information is biased (one of his cited sources,) whereas your un-named, un-cited skeptical stance is sufficient counter-factual and unbiased? Amazing the power of your factually unsupported view over any and all contrary sources of information.
Title: Re: NIH Study: NO RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VACCINATION STATUS AND COVID 19
Post by: Number7 on October 20, 2021, 11:56:33 AM
So you’re claiming that the Pennsylvania Department of Health’s information is biased (one of his cited sources,) whereas your un-named, un-cited skeptical stance is sufficient counter-factual and unbiased? Amazing the power of your factually unsupported view over any and all contrary sources of information.

Let's see....

Who does the Pa DOH get significant funding from.........
And what has the Governor of that state done to cause serious distrust about the scamdemic???

I just can't imagine why people won't pander to their bullshit conclusions...

Just can't.
Title: Re: NIH Study: NO RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VACCINATION STATUS AND COVID 19
Post by: PeterNSteinmetz on October 20, 2021, 11:59:05 AM
One is using a highly scientific source to answer questions in a lay world.  I prefer literature written or lay people over that written for scientists.

I do understand the fact that lay people will often have difficulty understanding the peer reviewed literature. But given the highly contentious nature of this field presently and the often very selective reporting by the mainstream media, I try and confine myself to the peer-reviewed literature, or at least pre-prints written by professionals for publication. Sometimes this requires a lot more explanation for lay people though.

Quote
Second, I doubt very many reading this have access to journals of this type due to subscription limitations.

I believe the policy put in place by the major journals last year for Covid-19 is still in place. Namely, all articles are open access. That was their contribution to helping with the pandemic. In any case, a Google Scholar search will often turn up a copy on the internet, one can email the corresponding author, or even use sci-hub.se.

Quote
The third is the scientific literature tend to lag lay literature by a few months.
True, which is why I also search the pre-prints.

Quote
But here goes:
https://kdvr.com/news/coronavirus/what-is-the-covid-19-death-rate-of-vaccinated-vs-unvaccinated/ (https://kdvr.com/news/coronavirus/what-is-the-covid-19-death-rate-of-vaccinated-vs-unvaccinated/)...
...
Of course, there's way way way more where this came from.

As has been noted, the fraction of vaccinated versus unvaccinated in the hospitals will depend on both the fraction of the population vaccinated as well as the efficacy of the vaccines in preventing death.

So in a sense this number doesn't really matter much. But I will check later today for what I thought I saw as a reasonably accurate report from a health department that 80% of the people dying in their hospitals were vaccinated. This number should increase as the fraction of the vaccinated increase.

ETA: a quick look at the timestamps on various lay reports suggests that indeed this is the case. The fraction of people dying from Covid-19 who are unvaccinated is decreasing. Sort of the expected result as more people become vaccinated.
Title: Re: NIH Study: NO RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VACCINATION STATUS AND COVID 19
Post by: Number7 on October 20, 2021, 12:03:52 PM
There have been far too many 'peer reviewed' studies that say exactly what the funding wants them to say.

There have been as many 'peer reviewed' studies that prove nothing close to reality, but we are supposed to accept utter bullshit, from compromised academics, who spent FAR too little time examining the risks of these scam vaccines, mmgw, mmgc, mmcc, the coming ice age, the melting of the poles, all supposed to endanger the continuation of mankind.

The senile imposter's minions told the FDA to approve the fucking vaccine and magically it's approved and we are supposed to believe it, and you expect us to accept their word?? I don't think you're playing with a quarter of a full deck if you buy that shit. Pretending to be the voice of calm and reason while pushing the administration bullshit lies, doesn't fly here. That's typical faculty lounge bullshit and everyone here knows it when we read it.

steingar was here screaming in a post that we should all run out and get the vaccine BECAUSE the FDA approved it after being ordered to. What planet are you from if you think the FDA approval after getting their marching orders changes anything?

If you have trouble believing that, then pull your head out of your rectum and look over the peer reviewed studies that have turned out to be 100% conjecture, like the ones that warned NYC would be under water by 2013, or the ones that claimed that the NC coastal homes would be swept away by rising tide, caused by melting ice caps.

Then there are the ones that 'forgot' to mention the increased ice at one pole, while scare mongering about the melting at the other.

All of which ignore inconvenient facts like the fact that the earth's weather has been changing for billions of years and has nothing to do with US soccer moms driving SUV's.

But I'm sure the faculty lounge lizards are all so dedicated to the truth that they were all honest mistakes.
Title: Re: NIH Study: NO RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VACCINATION STATUS AND COVID 19
Post by: bflynn on October 20, 2021, 12:10:01 PM
   Summary:  The Perfesser "I prefer getting my information from biased publications that strictly adhere to my ideological beliefs".......

Translation:  Shhh, it doesn't fit the narriative.

The truth is, vaccines work and the only reason people believe they don't is that they've been lied to.
Title: Re: NIH Study: NO RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VACCINATION STATUS AND COVID 19
Post by: Lucifer on October 20, 2021, 12:15:04 PM
Translation:  Shhh, it doesn't fit the narriative.

The truth is, vaccines work and the only reason people believe they don't is that they've been lied to.

  Truth is some vaccines don't work as advertised, but when billions of dollars are at stake, pharmaceuticals don't have a problem pushing their product as "safe and effective".

 Look over the past couple of decades of all the different drugs that were FDA approved, we were assured they were "safe and effective" only to be withdrawn after severe side effects (including death) were discovered later.

 At one time our government assured us asbestos was perfectly safe as well.   ::)
Title: Re: NIH Study: NO RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VACCINATION STATUS AND COVID 19
Post by: Steingar on October 20, 2021, 12:17:15 PM
So in a sense this number doesn't really matter much. But I will check later today for what I thought I saw as a reasonably accurate report from a health department that 80% of the people dying in their hospitals were vaccinated. This number should increase as the fraction of the vaccinated increase.

ETA: a quick look at the timestamps on various lay reports suggests that indeed this is the case. The fraction of people dying from Covid-19 who are unvaccinated is decreasing. Sort of the expected result as more people become vaccinated.

And naturally immune.  It is my fondest hope that the virus burns itself out on our population before the holidays.  If not we can expect to see another damn surge.
Title: Re: NIH Study: NO RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VACCINATION STATUS AND COVID 19
Post by: Number7 on October 20, 2021, 12:30:42 PM
Translation:  Shhh, it doesn't fit the narriative.

The truth is, vaccines work and the only reason people believe they don't is that they've been lied to.

I seem to remember hearing about the virtues of thalidomide... and the FDA spent far more time considering it's safety before unleashing it on pregnant woman the wold over.

The truth is that the government has been overtaken by big pharma and big bribes, not to mention pussies who proclaim that the vaccine works, without any serious proof, other than bullshit 'peer reviews' made by biased faculty living off of grants.
Title: Re: NIH Study: NO RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VACCINATION STATUS AND COVID 19
Post by: bflynn on October 20, 2021, 12:47:34 PM
Very interesting. One can see why this is so confusing and contentious for people. Just about 1% of people who were vaccinated were again infected within 100 days. It is a small fraction, but not 1 in 1000 or 1 in 10,000, where it is more reasonable to round off to 0.

ETA. Apparently about 2.6% in Israel study. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2109072?query=featured_home

Again a fraction which is hard for people to reason qualitatively about.

Possibly the definition of "infected" does not equal "has covid"?
Title: Re: NIH Study: NO RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VACCINATION STATUS AND COVID 19
Post by: Rush on October 20, 2021, 12:55:43 PM
And naturally immune.  It is my fondest hope that the virus burns itself out on our population before the holidays.  If not we can expect to see another damn surge.

That’s the other confounding piece of the puzzle. Many unvaccinated have some natural immunity. They had anything from exposure to small amounts of the virus to a full blown case. But they could get it again, or get another variant, they’d be counted as unvaccinated, but would not technically be “virgins” in terms of immunity. Some of them may have superior immunity to the vaccine, so suppose their death rate is lower than the death rate in the vaccinated.

So if you compare only the naturally immune unvaccinated to the vaccinated, you get a higher death rate among the vaccinated which would be counterintuitive. 

But when hospitals count the deaths, they only distinguish between vaccinated and unvaccinated. They don’t further subdivide the unvaccinated into those with zero immunity and those with some naturally acquired immunity.  Unless everyone admitted gets an antibody test (I highly doubt).

Yet another factor confounding these death rates, which is why I pretty much ignore them.
Title: Re: NIH Study: NO RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VACCINATION STATUS AND COVID 19
Post by: Steingar on October 20, 2021, 01:00:20 PM
That’s the other confounding piece of the puzzle. Many unvaccinated have some natural immunity. They had anything from exposure to small amounts of the virus to a full blown case. But they could get it again, or get another variant, they’d be counted as unvaccinated, but would not technically be “virgins” in terms of immunity. Some of them may have superior immunity to the vaccine, so suppose their death rate is lower than the death rate in the vaccinated.

So if you compare only the naturally immune unvaccinated to the vaccinated, you get a higher death rate among the vaccinated which would be counterintuitive. 

But when hospitals count the deaths, they only distinguish between vaccinated and unvaccinated. They don’t further subdivide the unvaccinated into those with zero immunity and those with some naturally acquired immunity.  Unless everyone admitted gets an antibody test (I highly doubt).

Yet another factor confounding these death rates, which is why I pretty much ignore them.

Like I said, I doubt we'll know the truth until years from now, if ever.  That said, the virus' best weapon is also its greatest weakness.  For the virus to truly evade immune surveillance it has to mutate its spike protein to unrecognizably by our vaccine trained immune systems.  However, if the virus succeeds in so doing it is doubtful that the spike protein will still bind the ACE2 protein with the avidity that has allowed COVID 19 to create the pandemic it has.

The nice thing is changing the mRNA vaccines to account for variants is simplicity in itself.  At least scientifically.  Getting it through medical review is another matter.
Title: Re: NIH Study: NO RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VACCINATION STATUS AND COVID 19
Post by: Lucifer on October 20, 2021, 01:00:58 PM
https://twitter.com/EmeraldRobinson/status/1450889582904492035
Title: Re: NIH Study: NO RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VACCINATION STATUS AND COVID 19
Post by: PeterNSteinmetz on October 20, 2021, 01:33:27 PM
I seem to remember hearing about the virtues of thalidomide... and the FDA spent far more time considering it's safety before unleashing it on pregnant woman the wold over

The story with thalidomide is a bit different than that. Though I agree with the main point in a sense that a regulatory agency is not a particularly effective way to ensure safety.

My first publication in graduate school actually dealt with the case of thalidomide in the context of its meaning for another political issue -- namely animal rights. See Steinmetz PN, Steven I Helms-Tillery (1994) Animal models: some empirical worries. Public Affairs Quarterly, 8:287–298. And of course in this case you can ask the corresponding author for a copy if you want ;-)

Thalidomide was never actually approved by the FDA for use in the US. I spoke with the reviewer once and she explained that this was the first file she had to deal with as a new reviewer. The data on its use did not show a typical dose response curve, so she held off on approval requesting more data. By then the news was starting to come out about the birth defects.

Curiously it is only recently that they uncovered the mechanism of its powerful teratogenicity - that is, ability to create those defects.

Title: Re: NIH Study: NO RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VACCINATION STATUS AND COVID 19
Post by: Number7 on October 20, 2021, 02:02:07 PM
IIRC, the swine flu 'vaccine' was pulled after something like 56 negative reactions.

A thousand times that (at the least) with the scam vaccines and the left pushes and shoves them at us non-stop. All claiming they have the science on their side.

That is so odd, because the same fucking leftists claim that the mmgw science is also settled. They also claim peer reviewed studies prove their bullshit.

The scamdemic and the scam vaccine bullshit is the exact same thing.

How can that be?

Why should anyone believe such horribly compromised science sources???

Hospitals here have ordered personnel not to count negative vaccine admissions. I got that directly from a hospital administrator,
and it's been reported at other hospitals.

Why would hospitals refuse to keep proper records? Who has the power to order such a lie?

And WHY??

Title: Re: NIH Study: NO RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VACCINATION STATUS AND COVID 19
Post by: Rush on October 20, 2021, 03:11:42 PM
The story with thalidomide is a bit different than that. Though I agree with the main point in a sense that a regulatory agency is not a particularly effective way to ensure safety.

My first publication in graduate school actually dealt with the case of thalidomide in the context of its meaning for another political issue -- namely animal rights. See Steinmetz PN, Steven I Helms-Tillery (1994) Animal models: some empirical worries. Public Affairs Quarterly, 8:287–298. And of course in this case you can ask the corresponding author for a copy if you want ;-)

Thalidomide was never actually approved by the FDA for use in the US. I spoke with the reviewer once and she explained that this was the first file she had to deal with as a new reviewer. The data on its use did not show a typical dose response curve, so she held off on approval requesting more data. By then the news was starting to come out about the birth defects.

Curiously it is only recently that they uncovered the mechanism of its powerful teratogenicity - that is, ability to create those defects.

In addition to my other careers I am a Certified Childbirth Educator, so I have lots of obstetrics background and am familiar with the thalidomide disaster.  Wow, I knew the FDA had dragged its feet but that’s an interesting personal story. As a new reviewer maybe she was hesitant to proceed until she had more information because she didn’t want to screw up in her new job?  If so, for once, government being slow saved the U.S. public.
Title: Re: NIH Study: NO RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VACCINATION STATUS AND COVID 19
Post by: PeterNSteinmetz on October 20, 2021, 03:18:46 PM
As a new reviewer maybe she was hesitant to proceed until she had more information because she didn’t want to screw up in her new job?  If so, for once, government being slow saved the U.S. public.

I had the impression that yes, she wanted to be rather careful here as the new person. And of course, not having a typical dose response curve is weird for a drug.

From a statistical testing perspective, there is one way to ensure you never let a bad drug through (false positive). Never approve any! You will then have a very high false negative rate however.
Title: Re: NIH Study: NO RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VACCINATION STATUS AND COVID 19
Post by: EppyGA - White Christian Domestic Terrorist on October 20, 2021, 04:09:17 PM
And naturally immune.  It is my fondest hope that the virus burns itself out on our population before the holidays.  If not we can expect to see another damn surge.


You mean, like the flu?
Title: Re: NIH Study: NO RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VACCINATION STATUS AND COVID 19
Post by: Number7 on October 20, 2021, 04:50:44 PM

You mean, like the flu?

The flu doesn't enrich big pharma and big bribes to corrupt politicians and government employees.
Title: Re: NIH Study: NO RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VACCINATION STATUS AND COVID 19
Post by: Rush on October 21, 2021, 04:40:23 AM
This doctor is using critical thinking skills. Quick! Put him on the terrorist watch list.


Title: Re: NIH Study: NO RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VACCINATION STATUS AND COVID 19
Post by: Lucifer on October 21, 2021, 04:42:23 AM
This doctor is using critical thinking skills. Quick! Put him on the terrorist watch list.



 Better yet!  Remove his medical license!  Place him on a DEA watchlist!