PILOT SPIN

Spin Zone => Spin Zone => Topic started by: Number7 on August 18, 2022, 05:57:04 AM

Title: Odds Mike Pence Wins GOP Nomination
Post by: Number7 on August 18, 2022, 05:57:04 AM

Question: What are the odds that Mike Pence can campaign and win the nomination for President in 2024?

With the vast majority of republicans siding with President Trump I think Mike has about the same chance
that mitt romney has, which is to say he has a LOT better than the chances of lizzy cheney.

I don't think appealing to liberal republicans and moderates will move the arrow enough for mike to
rise higher in the polls than high single digits, if that.

https://redstate.com/bonchie/2022/08/17/mike-pence-gets-to-work-burning-his-2024-campaign-to-the-ground-n613570

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/washington-secrets/majority-see-fbi-as-bidens-personal-gestapo-after-trump-raid

Title: Re: Odds Mike Pence Wins GOP Nomination
Post by: Lucifer on August 18, 2022, 05:59:11 AM

Pence is delusional.  But the establishment/Bush/Romney/McCain/RINO/Lincoln Project wing of the party will pour millions into promoting him.

Title: Re: Odds Mike Pence Wins GOP Nomination
Post by: Rush on August 18, 2022, 06:14:05 AM

For that to happen, Trump, DeSantis, and Rand Paul (or Ron, I can never remember which is the father and which the son) all would have to not run plus nobody else I can think of that would also handily beat him, so, zero. 

Title: Re: Odds Mike Pence Wins GOP Nomination
Post by: Mase on August 18, 2022, 07:49:46 AM

Ron is the Daddy.

Title: Re: Odds Mike Pence Wins GOP Nomination
Post by: bflynn on August 18, 2022, 08:40:26 AM

Never say never. 

It's like Harry becoming king of england - yes, it could happen, IF five other people die, THEN he becomes the king.  So the odds are very, very small, but > 0.

Title: Re: Odds Mike Pence Wins GOP Nomination
Post by: Rush on August 18, 2022, 08:48:27 AM

Quote from: bflynn on August 18, 2022, 08:40:26 AM

Never say never. 

It's like Harry becoming king of england - yes, it could happen, IF five other people die, THEN he becomes the king.  So the odds are very, very small, but > 0.

But the poll has no option between 0 and 10 and the odds are so minuscule they might as well be zero.  That option wins over 10/90 to me.

Title: Re: Odds Mike Pence Wins GOP Nomination
Post by: elwood blues on August 18, 2022, 09:35:01 AM

Trump has been called a megalomaniac, but in reality, its Romney, Pence, Cheney, et al who are full of themselves.

Title: Re: Odds Mike Pence Wins GOP Nomination
Post by: Lucifer on August 18, 2022, 10:10:26 AM

Part of what I see starting to take place is another strategy.

The establishment republicans are looking to flood the field to siphon off votes from Trump.   Yes, believe it or not, the establishment would prefer a democrat over Trump, just as they approved Biden.

Dilute the vote enough (Hi Ross Perot!) and the other side wins with less than a majority.