Post by: LevelWing on April 05, 2016, 01:27:56 PM
Quote from: The Hill
Bernie Sanders's campaign manager insisted Tuesday that the Vermont senator will win the Democratic nomination over Hillary Clinton at the party's convention this summer.Let's assume for the sake of discussion that Sanders does win the nomination. Who has the best chance to beat him? Do Trump's numbers improve in a head to head vs. Sanders instead of Clinton?
I don't think it's likely that Sanders will win the nomination, but this is turning out to be a crazy election year.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/275181-campaign-manager-sanders-hopes-to-win-nomination-at
Post by: Little Joe on April 05, 2016, 01:58:18 PM
Let's assume for the sake of discussion that Sanders does win the nomination. Who has the best chance to beat him? Do Trump's numbers improve in a head to head vs. Sanders instead of Clinton?I just heard on the radio that some polls say that in a head-to-head, Bernie would beat Trump. They didn't mention Cruz.
I don't think it's likely that Sanders will win the nomination, but this is turning out to be a crazy election year.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/275181-campaign-manager-sanders-hopes-to-win-nomination-at
Post by: Little Joe on April 05, 2016, 02:08:20 PM
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-5565.html
Cruz vs Sanders
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_cruz_vs_sanders-5742.html
Trump vs Clinton
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
Cruz vs Clinton (This may be our best shot).
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_cruz_vs_clinton-4034.html
Post by: Lucifer on April 05, 2016, 02:13:01 PM
General Election: Trump vs. Sanders
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-5565.html
Cruz vs Sanders
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_cruz_vs_sanders-5742.html
Trump vs Clinton
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
Cruz vs Clinton (This may be our best shot).
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_cruz_vs_clinton-4034.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/04/05/no-general-election-polling-still-doesnt-tell-us-much/
Post by: Little Joe on April 05, 2016, 02:24:28 PM
I'm counting on that.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/04/05/no-general-election-polling-still-doesnt-tell-us-much/
But it's still nice when the polls say what you want them to.
Post by: JeffDG on April 05, 2016, 03:18:59 PM
Post by: nddons on April 05, 2016, 03:36:28 PM
To the Trumpkins, any poll that doesn't show their guy winning is horribly biased, while if it shows their boy winning, it's the Gold Standard itself.See my new thread about the one poll that Trump thinks is magnificent - it just showed Cruz moving into the lead.
Post by: Little Joe on April 05, 2016, 04:30:48 PM
To the Trumpkins, any poll that doesn't show their guy winning is horribly biased, while if it shows their boy winning, it's the Gold Standard itself.This is probably the Scotch talking, but
Eat shit Jeff!
I posted a couple of polls that were not of my liking. Tell me where I said they were even slightly biased.
You are really getting annoying.
Post by: JeffDG on April 05, 2016, 05:08:35 PM
This is probably the Scotch talking, butOK, I'd never called you a Trumpkin, but if you want to wear the label, be my guest.
Eat shit Jeff!
I posted a couple of polls that were not of my liking. Tell me where I said they were even slightly biased.
You are really getting annoying.
Post by: JeffDG on April 05, 2016, 05:09:30 PM
See my new thread about the one poll that Trump thinks is magnificent - it just showed Cruz moving into the lead.Obviously the GOPe, who for some reason like Cruz better than the guy who's paid for them for years, got to them.
Post by: nddons on April 05, 2016, 05:28:31 PM
This is probably the Scotch talking, butTo be fair, I've never known you to dismiss a poll, but that's not really who Jeff was addressing. There's one Trump fan in particular who says he's not a Trump fan but angrily dismissed every poll where Trump is not leading.
Eat shit Jeff!
I posted a couple of polls that were not of my liking. Tell me where I said they were even slightly biased.
You are really getting annoying.
Post by: Lucifer on April 05, 2016, 05:50:12 PM
To be fair, I've never known you to dismiss a poll, but that's not really who Jeff was addressing. There's one Trump fan in particular who says he's not a Trump fan but angrily dismissed every poll where Trump is not leading.
Please link those post where I "angrily dismissed EVERY poll where Trump is not leading".
And it's pathetic you have to keep defending your sycophant.
Post by: JeffDG on April 05, 2016, 06:24:21 PM
Please link those post where I "angrily dismissed EVERY poll where Trump is not leading".Wow, you're totally not a Trumpkin.
And it's pathetic you have to keep defending your sycophant.
Post by: Anthony on April 06, 2016, 02:27:25 AM
Post by: President-Elect Bob Noel on April 06, 2016, 03:58:18 AM
I'm still bitter, clinging to my guns and religion.
and a charter member of the vast right-wing conspiracy... don't forget that too.
Post by: nddons on April 06, 2016, 04:56:42 AM
Please link those post where I "angrily dismissed EVERY poll where Trump is not leading".No thanks. I'm still celebrating Cruz' crushing defeat of Trump.
And it's pathetic you have to keep defending your sycophant.
Post by: Anthony on April 06, 2016, 06:37:09 AM
and a charter member of the vast right-wing conspiracy... don't forget that too.
Guilty as charged Bob!!!
Post by: Lucifer on April 06, 2016, 06:43:09 AM
No thanks.
That's because you can't.
I'm still celebrating Cruz' crushing defeat of Trump.
Congrats. So how does Cruz go from here to get 4/5's of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination on the first ballot?
Post by: nddons on April 06, 2016, 06:57:49 AM
That's because you can't.Who said he needs to get it in the first ballot? Lincoln got it on the third ballot.
Congrats. So how does Cruz go from here to get 4/5's of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination on the first ballot?
Of course Trump and his sycophants think that Trump should win it outright if he walks in with the plurality, which in itself would be a rule change.
Post by: Lucifer on April 06, 2016, 07:17:22 AM
Who said he needs to get it in the first ballot? Lincoln got it on the third ballot.
As of right now the only way to secure the nomination will be to be over 1237 on the first ballot. As the system progresses from the first floor vote to a second, third, etc both Trump and Cruz risk being kicked to the curb in favor of the "establishment candidate".
Of course Trump and his sycophants think that Trump should win it outright if he walks in with the plurality, which in itself would be a rule change.
The current convention rules required to win on the first vote is 1237, and honestly I don't see that changing. When the delegates get together for the convention and get ready to set the convention rules for 2016 I do see a tightening of the rules to further exclude Trump and Cruz.
It's still my belief the RNC is going to insert their own candidate at the convention.
Post by: LevelWing on April 06, 2016, 07:26:45 AM
It's still my belief the RNC is going to insert their own candidate at the convention.It's certainly possible. But Cruz has been working behind be scenes to secure delegates from Trump if Trump loses on the first ballot. If Cruz is successful, he could very well win the nomination that way. We'll see if or how the RNC changes the rules. I think it's likely that they'll try.
Post by: nddons on April 06, 2016, 07:34:44 AM
As of right now the only way to secure the nomination will be to be over 1237 on the first ballot. As the system progresses from the first floor vote to a second, third, etc both Trump and Cruz risk being kicked to the curb in favor of the "establishment candidate".Who do you think writes the rules? They are written by a committee of the delegates themselves, which means Trump's and Cruz' delegates, and are voted on by all of the delegates. Do you really think that they would open up the field to someone who didn't run the race?
The current convention rules required to win on the first vote is 1237, and honestly I don't see that changing. When the delegates get together for the convention and get ready to set the convention rules for 2016 I do see a tightening of the rules to further exclude Trump and Cruz.
It's still my belief the RNC is going to insert their own candidate at the convention.
You've been listening to Sean Hannity too much.
Edit: see GOP.com for the Convention rules.
The Convention Rules Committee is made up of 2 delegates from each state/territory, so 112 delegates make up this committee.
After that, the rules are voted on by all 2,472 delegates.
Post by: Lucifer on April 06, 2016, 07:39:41 AM
It's certainly possible. But Cruz has been working behind be scenes to secure delegates from Trump if Trump loses on the first ballot. If Cruz is successful, he could very well win the nomination that way. We'll see if or how the RNC changes the rules. I think it's likely that they'll try.
What's being over looked here is none of the candidates can "secure" a delegate after the first ballots. Yes, they can go to each delegate, smooze them over and get their pledge, but beyond that it's just that, a pledge. It's not binding.
These delegates did not nominate themselves to be delegates, they were chosen. And the delegate knows his or her vote is being watched at the convention. If they choose to buck the system and vote their mind you can damn well bet they will not be welcome to another convention and fall out of favor with their home delegation.
Hence, if a candidate has over 1237 it's fairly set in stone (under current rules) and they vote IAW the rules. After that, you can bet your ass the RNC establishment will have rules in place and enough influence to bring in their own guy (likely Paul Ryan) and secure the nomination.
Post by: Lucifer on April 06, 2016, 07:45:15 AM
Who do you think writes the rules? They are written by a committee of the delegates themselves, which means Trump's and Cruz' delegates, and are voted on by all of the delegates. Do you really think that they would open up the field to someone who didn't run the race?
You sorely underestimate the RNC establishment. I suggest you go crack open the history books and do some reading.
You've been listening to Sean Hannity too much.
I actually don't watch or listen to Hannity. What is with you constantly throwing out false allegations towards me? Are you really that insecure?
Edit: see GOP.com for the Convention rules.
The Convention Rules Committee is made up of 2 delegates from each state/territory, so 112 delegates make up this committee.
After that, the rules are voted on by all 2,472 delegates.
And you don't believe Rience Priebus or the RNC can influence any of that?
Talk about drinking the Kool-Aid. ::)
BTW, you being from Wisconson should be all giddy about your boy Paul Ryan getting in through the back door. What's up with that?
Post by: nddons on April 06, 2016, 08:37:50 AM
You sorely underestimate the RNC establishment. I suggest you go crack open the history books and do some reading.No, why don't you show me the history books that show the RNC overruling the delegates at the National Convention. All I hear from you is Trump-driven paranoia, emulated by Sean Hannity and other sycophants.
I actually don't watch or listen to Hannity. What is with you constantly throwing out false allegations towards me? Are you really that insecure?
And you don't believe Rience Priebus or the RNC can influence any of that?
Talk about drinking the Kool-Aid. ::)
BTW, you being from Wisconson should be all giddy about your boy Paul Ryan getting in through the back door. What's up with that?
I'm dealing in facts. You're dealing in red helicopter conspiracy theories. Show me where the RNC itself changed the rules.
By the way Rule 40B was put in place by Romney delegates. Do you really think that Cruz/Trump delegates are going to let the RNC open up the race to people who didn't run? That's delusional. Ryan isn't going to be the nominee.
Post by: President-Elect Bob Noel on April 06, 2016, 08:44:54 AM
Post by: Lucifer on April 06, 2016, 09:05:15 AM
No, why don't you show me the history books that show the RNC overruling the delegates at the National Convention. All I hear from you is Trump-driven paranoia, emulated by Sean Hannity and other sycophants.
Your a polemicist through and through. Again when you can't make a coherent point you resort to inane diatribes and false accusations. That's all you have to counter back with.
I'm beginning to believe that you and Jeff are interchangeable.
I'm dealing in facts. You're dealing in red helicopter conspiracy theories. Show me where the RNC itself changed the rules.
The "facts" as you want them to be, just like everything else you spout off here.
By the way Rule 40B was put in place by Romney delegates. Do you really think that Cruz/Trump delegates are going to let the RNC open up the race to people who didn't run? That's delusional. Ryan isn't going to be the nominee.
Your head is so far up Cruz's ass you can't distinguish fantasy from reality any longer.
Post by: Little Joe on April 06, 2016, 09:24:23 AM
Who said he needs to get it in the first ballot? Lincoln got it on the third ballot.Well, Trump is no Reagan,
Of course Trump and his sycophants think that Trump should win it outright if he walks in with the plurality, which in itself would be a rule change.
And Cruz is certainly no Lincoln.
Now I know this can't possibly be true, because Trump said it, but:
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/04/06/trump-campaign-to-cruz-gop-establishment-is-using.html
The GOP establishment is using Cruz to keep Trump from getting a majority so that they can install their own choice on a subsequent vote. Makes sense to me.
Post by: nddons on April 06, 2016, 09:55:32 AM
Your a polemicist through and through. Again when you can't make a coherent point you resort to inane diatribes and false accusations. That's all you have to counter back with.OH MY GOD! I'M ARGUING WITH A CHILD.
I'm beginning to believe that you and Jeff are interchangeable.
The "facts" as you want them to be, just like everything else you spout off here.
Your head is so far up Cruz's ass you can't distinguish fantasy from reality any longer.
I gave you the site where you could read the rules.
Here it is again: https://gop.com/convention-facts/
At that site, it shows you:
1. What happens at the Convention
2. The Delegates
3. Becoming the nominee
4. The Rules
5. The RNC's Role
You can actually drill down and read "The Rules of the Republican Party" and scroll down to Rule No. 40(b), which is on page 21 of a 22 page PDF. These are the rules as they stand.
But instead of reading them, you deny them, preferring to buy into conspiracy theories that evil Reince Priebus will ride in and create a Fort Apache inside the Cleveland convention.
Read the rules. It's educational.
I'm no fan of the GOP and Priebus, and I'm not happy defending them. But I'm not going to put up with wild-ass guesses when we have a program and rules that shows what should happen.
It's the oddest thing. The candidate who most despises the party is asking for its nomination. It's like running for president of the local Kiwanis chapter, and you say if you don't win, you're going to burn it down or start a new club. Does that make Kiwanis members anxious to elect that person president?
Post by: Lucifer on April 06, 2016, 10:03:34 AM
OH MY GOD! I'M ARGUING WITH A CHILD.
And I'm trying to have a discussion with a complete moron.
Good bye.
Post by: nddons on April 06, 2016, 10:10:58 AM
Well, Trump is no Reagan,You too?
And Cruz is certainly no Lincoln.
Now I know this can't possibly be true, because Trump said it, but:
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/04/06/trump-campaign-to-cruz-gop-establishment-is-using.html
The GOP establishment is using Cruz to keep Trump from getting a majority so that they can install their own choice on a subsequent vote. Makes sense to me.
So the millions of us who support Cruz don't "really" support Cruz, and we are just tools for the GOPe?
You guys are REALLY anxious for Trump's coronation, aren't you? Will he get a crown and a bouquet of flowers, or do you prefer something more like palm fronds laid down before his feet?
Post by: nddons on April 06, 2016, 10:18:08 AM
And I'm trying to have a discussion with a complete moron.
Good bye.
So an argument with someone who says this is what?
Your head is so far up Cruz's ass you can't distinguish fantasy from reality any longer.
Obviously you're a Mensa member I guess.
See ya.
Post by: Little Joe on April 06, 2016, 10:31:11 AM
You too?No, I"m sure you really do support Cruz. And if he wins the nomination, I will support him too.
So the millions of us who support Cruz don't "really" support Cruz, and we are just tools for the GOPe?
But I do think the GOP and others are using him (and you) to keep Trump from getting the nomination and sending it to a brokered convention. If you truly hate to defend Priebus, then don't.
You guys are REALLY anxious for Trump's coronation, aren't you? Will he get a crown and a bouquet of flowers, or do you prefer something more like palm fronds laid down before his feet?NO again. I am not anxious at all about Trump winning. I am totally against Hillary or Bernie winning. I hate to see all the venomous sniping from each other about either candidate. Every time that happens, it reduces our chances. In spite of what Jeff, and maybe even you, think; I do not think Hillary (or Bernie) would be better for or country than Trump (or Cruz, or Kasich, or Ryan, or Bush, or . . . ).
The thing that pisses me off most about this whole campaign is the evil rhetoric being expelled against other R candidates. It is VERY VERY un-Reagan like.
And Reagan was and always will be my hero and my yardstick for politicians. Even if he would be branded a RINO today.
Post by: President-Elect Bob Noel on April 06, 2016, 10:40:56 AM
Post by: nddons on April 06, 2016, 10:58:54 AM
No, I"m sure you really do support Cruz. And if he wins the nomination, I will support him too.Joe, I get what you're saying. I think we have damaged each other with respect to our candidates.
But I do think the GOP and others are using him (and you) to keep Trump from getting the nomination and sending it to a brokered convention. If you truly hate to defend Priebus, then don't.
NO again. I am not anxious at all about Trump winning. I am totally against Hillary or Bernie winning. I hate to see all the venomous sniping from each other about either candidate. Every time that happens, it reduces our chances. In spite of what Jeff, and maybe even you, think; I do not think Hillary (or Bernie) would be better for or country than Trump (or Cruz, or Kasich, or Ryan, or Bush, or . . . ).
The thing that pisses me off most about this whole campaign is the evil rhetoric being expelled against other R candidates. It is VERY VERY un-Reagan like.
And Reagan was and always will be my hero and my yardstick for politicians. Even if he would be branded a RINO today.
And I don't think Reagan would have been deemed a RINO by any stretch, and I agree with his admonition. But Reagan didn't have an opponent who spoke like Trump did against his opponents, as late as last night or this morning with his "Lyin' Ted" bullshit and his Trojan Horse fiction, which smacks me and other Cruz supporters as hard as it smacks Cruz; probably harder because we are invested in our candidates.
I don't think Reagan would have put up with it whatsoever.
Post by: bflynn on April 06, 2016, 12:13:06 PM
But I do think the GOP and others are using him (and you) to keep Trump from getting the nomination and sending it to a brokered convention.
It's a primary. Just because Trump is ahead by 230 delegates does not mean that he has won and everyone else should drop out. And if he eventually loses, it doesn't mean others stole it, it means he got beat. Of COURSE Senator Cruz is trying to keep Mr. Trump from winning, that is what he SHOULD be doing. I'm personally very pleased that Trump seems to be helping him so well.
If he can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen. Judging from his behavior over the last week and especially last night, he can't handle the campaign. Is this how he will handle the job?
Last thought - if Cruz and Kasich would both put on their big boy pants and announce a Cruz / Kasich ticket today, it would be nearly a tie in the delegate count and they would have a very positive message to send about how they approach inclusion in their campaign.
Post by: Lucifer on April 06, 2016, 12:17:54 PM
Last thought - if Cruz and Kasich would both put on their big boy pants and announce a Cruz / Kasich ticket today, it would be nearly a tie in the delegate count and they would have a very positive message to send about how they approach inclusion in their campaign.
That's not going to happen. Cruz is a ideologue religious zealot and Kasich is too far to the center. If Cruz was to get the nomination (doubtful) he would certainly pick another ideologue as that's all he can see beyond.
Post by: nddons on April 06, 2016, 12:21:24 PM
It's a primary. Just because Trump is ahead by 230 delegates does not mean that he has won and everyone else should drop out. And if he eventually loses, it doesn't mean others stole it, it means he got beat. Of COURSE Senator Cruz is trying to keep Mr. Trump from winning, that is what he SHOULD be doing. I'm personally very pleased that Trump seems to be helping him so well.I'd be concerned that Kasich would keep reminding Cruz that he's the only one who could beat Hillary - and that his dad was a mailman.
If he can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen. Judging from his behavior over the last week and especially last night, he can't handle the campaign. Is this how he will handle the job?
Last thought - if Cruz and Kasich would both put on their big boy pants and announce a Cruz / Kasich ticket today, it would be nearly a tie in the delegate count and they would have a very positive message to send about how they approach inclusion in their campaign.
I'm hoping that Cruz would pick Carly Fiorina. Cruz could use an attack dog.
Post by: JeffDG on April 06, 2016, 12:25:22 PM
As of right now the only way to secure the nomination will be to be over 1237 on the first ballot. As the system progresses from the first floor vote to a second, third, etc both Trump and Cruz risk being kicked to the curb in favor of the "establishment candidate".The same 1,237 needed on the first ballot will be needed on the 2nd or any subsequent ballot.
The current convention rules required to win on the first vote is 1237, and honestly I don't see that changing. When the delegates get together for the convention and get ready to set the convention rules for 2016 I do see a tightening of the rules to further exclude Trump and Cruz.
It's still my belief the RNC is going to insert their own candidate at the convention.
Unlike Trumpy's opinion that 1,237 is some "random" number, it's a mathematical majority.
Post by: Little Joe on April 06, 2016, 01:06:55 PM
It's a primary. Just because Trump is ahead by 230 delegates does not mean that he has won and everyone else should drop out. And if he eventually loses, it doesn't mean others stole it, it means he got beat. Of COURSE Senator Cruz is trying to keep Mr. Trump from winning, that is what he SHOULD be doing. I'm personally very pleased that Trump seems to be helping him so well.I agree. Cruz is doing what he should be doing, just as Stan and Jeff are doing what they should be doing: supporting their favorite candidate.
But the problem is that the GOP establishment is using them. If they can prevent Trump from gaining a majority of delegates, they get to choose the nominee. So they will allow, or even help Cruz take votes away from Trump. But I just don't believe they will select Cruz as the candidate.
The only two ways Cruz could get the nomination is by garnering the delegates, or being chosen by the "establishment". I see neither happening. That is different from saying I don't want that to happen. I just want a nominee that can beat the Ds.
Post by: nddons on April 06, 2016, 01:30:18 PM
I agree. Cruz is doing what he should be doing, just as Stan and Jeff are doing what they should be doing: supporting their favorite candidate.Once again, who is "they?" The people who are on the rules committee are 2 delegates from each state and territory. Those are Trump and Cruz delegates for the most part. The rules are then voted on by all 2,472 delegates who are, again, largely Trump and Cruz delegates.
But the problem is that the GOP establishment is using them. If they can prevent Trump from gaining a majority of delegates, they get to choose the nominee. So they will allow, or even help Cruz take votes away from Trump. But I just don't believe they will select Cruz as the candidate.
The only two ways Cruz could get the nomination is by garnering the delegates, or being chosen by the "establishment". I see neither happening. That is different from saying I don't want that to happen. I just want a nominee that can beat the Ds.
"They" are not preventing Trump from getting the 1237 delegates. Good people like ME in Wisconsin are preventing Trump from getting 1237 delegates.
I'm getting a little irritated that Trump, his spokeswoman, and people like you are telling me that I'M getting used by the GOP establishment. When exactly did this use begin? When I supported Ted Cruz back in March 2015 when he was the first Republican to announce his candidacy for president? When Cruz won Iowa? When Trump pulled ahead in plurality?
Is it possible to you and Trump that I support Cruz because he's the only Constitutional conservative in the race, and not because some masters in the establishment are secretly steering me to circle in his name on my ballot?
By the way, Cruz has the best ground game in the business. He has staff in virtually every state, including those states whose primaries have already happened, trying to convince the delegates to vote for Cruz on the second ballot, or even the first if they're not committed. He should be commended for playing in the rules.
Instead, Trump sees it as a dirty trick, and you think I'm being used.
Post by: Mase on April 06, 2016, 01:47:22 PM