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Messages - PeterNSteinmetz

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Spin Zone / Re: sorryantivaxxer
« on: December 04, 2021, 05:58:55 PM »
It is a godaddy domain where the owner is remaining anonymous. Telling.

Now in all likelihood some of the statements made are false. And some states permit an estate to sue for libel of the deceased.

So if one could find a deceased with family that was in the correct state and felt offended by the false statements, it might be possible to mount a libel action.

That would certainly de-anonymize the person or group running the site and maybe even punish them economically.

I don’t have time to do that, but someone else might.

Spin Zone / Re: sorryantivaxxer
« on: December 04, 2021, 11:31:22 AM »
Reasonable risk assessment is beyond the reach of entranced cult members brainwashed by panic porn.
I think this is a result of politicization of the issues. That happens when you try to coerce people into doing things by having mask mandates, lockdowns, and vaccine mandates. And frankly affects both sides of the debate.

It is also true that people are just very bad in general at accurately assessing low level risks. Our brains are just not evolved to be reacting to these kind of choices.

Spin Zone / sorryantivaxxer
« on: December 03, 2021, 07:41:13 PM »
They didn't exercise a risk vs benefit behavior.  They behaved foolishly and many paid the ultimate price for it.  Moreover, by promoting their idiocy they may have caused others to pay the ultimate price as well.  Public ridicule seems utterly appropriate.
Quite unbecoming of an associate professor I think.

Also, the numbers here are just not so overwhelming in favor of taking the vaccine that we should ridicule those who don’t.

If you are under 65, the odds of dying from COVID-19, if you catch it, are about equal to driving 17 miles to/from work each day. Very few people worry about this level of risk and think “I better change my job and commute because it is too risky”.

Similarly, the odds of seriously bad outcomes from the vaccine are likely on the order of 1-10 per 1,000,000. Not really big but not trivial either.

These tradeoffs fall in the range where reasonable people may make different choices.

Sort of like some people find the enjoyment of flying in small planes with the 1 in 1,00,000 hours risk of death worth it. Others do not. Different strokes for different folks.

These facts likely account for why 30% of doctors don’t want to immunize their young children and a fair fraction of the US population does not choose to be vaccinated.

I've seen that pic before.  Question I have is "What happened to the sights on that rifle?" Did someone steal them?  Removed for "safety"?  Wouldn't that be tampering with evidence?

Good question. Also appears not to have the safety flag in the chamber.

I should have done a simple search. According to this article they were filming when he shot:

An eyewitness on the scene told The Sun that the tragedy was recorded on camera as the cast and crew did a take rehearsing their scene.
The insider claimed: “The camera was facing Alec who was shooting in the cameras general direction during a rehearsal scene that was being recorded.
"The cameras captured Alec shooting but Halyna and Joel were behind the camera so I don’t think the cameras captured them being shot.”
However, “cameras, lights and props were damaged” from the gunfire with “broken glass was everywhere,” so it is unclear if the footage would be salvable.

If they were using a digital system there may be greater hope of recovery.

Were there any cameras filming at the time?
This was my immediate question as well. Also agree he may well have been holding the trigger down. Maybe gun control nuts with no real experience with firearms ought not be using them on the set. Or even making movies with guns, actually.

Pilot Zone / The “Little Puffer”
« on: November 29, 2021, 06:22:51 PM »

Sort of a mis-watering accident. Older but very unusual.

Spin Zone / Re: Black classism, white classism
« on: November 27, 2021, 09:25:58 PM »
I’m not sure what’s more interesting - seeing where slavery exists, or seeing where it doesn’t exist, yet keeps getting blamed for the world’s problems.
Why is Greenland gray in that figure? Does it mean they don’t have data there?

Pilot Zone / Bessie Coleman
« on: November 27, 2021, 08:09:19 PM »
The road O’Hare airport is on is named for the the first US black woman pilot.

Pilot Zone / Re: “Progress in flying machines” by Octave Chanute, 1894
« on: November 27, 2021, 04:42:01 PM »
Nagasaki provided pretty good evidence of breaking the will of the enemy.
Certainly the atomic bombs provided the Emperor with the reason needed to surrender. I don’t know what the effect was per se on civilian morale.

Even here there is of course a lot of debate. I just finished reading Alperowitz’s book on this and was surprised by the detailed case he makes that essentially the final decision to use the atomic bomb was made to make the Russians more pliable in negotiations about the post-war world and that the Japanese were ready to surrender prior to their use.

So in the context of this discussion, that might be an example where the constant fire bombing of Japanese cities did enough damage to make them ready to surrender. Though again I don’t know a detailed study of the effect of the fire-bombings on Japanese civilian morale.

Pilot Zone / Ok to demolish Wright Bros shop
« on: November 27, 2021, 04:28:11 PM »
Hard to believe it is not on the National Register of Historic Places.

Pilot Zone / Re: B-pass to head of security line ?
« on: November 27, 2021, 02:14:13 PM »
The article doesn’t say they skip security; it says they move to the front of the security theater line, successfully pissing off everyone who pays the $90 for TSA Precheck.
Right. But presumably they are just skipping the start of the line where they check that your ID and boarding pass match.

I still don’t understand how they are replacing that.

Pilot Zone / Re: “Progress in flying machines” by Octave Chanute, 1894
« on: November 27, 2021, 02:11:08 PM »
The Dresden raid was led by the Brits with over 700 Lancaster bombers. There certainly were industrial targets, but no doubt those planners where thinking of the 60-70,000 civilians killed by German’s bombings of London. Destroying the enemy’s will to continue to wage war sometimes involves civilian deaths.
I suspect you are correct that was the intent. I am not so sure there is much evidence it had the intended effect on morale. My understanding is that both in the UK and Germany bombing of civilians actually increased civilian resolve to keep fighting. But I have not read extensively on that point.

Pilot Zone / B-pass to head of security line ?
« on: November 27, 2021, 09:25:12 AM »
Does anyone know what they are doing to bypass the Toilet Safety Administration matching your id to your ticket?

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