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Messages - Jim Logajan

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16
Spin Zone / Re: Go back in time and kill Hitler?
« on: January 02, 2024, 07:03:33 AM »
“It’s a Wunderbar Life” - A story of a troubled Adolf Hitler who is about to end his life in a Berlin bunker when he is visited by a guardian angel to show him what the world would be like if he had never been born.

17
Spin Zone / Re: Go back in time and kill Hitler?
« on: January 01, 2024, 07:22:02 PM »
Somebody already went back in time and killed Edith Keeler.

18
Spin Zone / Re: 2024 New Years Resolutions Anyone?
« on: December 31, 2023, 10:44:41 PM »
Take care man! And happy new year!

If I said I was going to do something I'd feel obliged to do it. So I avoid resolutions.

19
Spin Zone / Re: New Years Eve: Shat is Everyone Doing?
« on: December 31, 2023, 03:25:18 PM »
For the first time ever, I have the plague on NYE.

Here’s hoping you all are doing things that will cheer me up!!!
Get well soon.
I'm sure anything I could do to cheer you up would be painful to me.  ;)

20
Spin Zone / Re: Official Unofficial Christmas Thread
« on: December 24, 2023, 12:35:31 PM »
So sorry about your mother, Rush.

"Death may deprive us of the wonder of this existence, but it can never erase the triumph of our having existed, whether for one year or for one hour."

21
Spin Zone / Re: Will Britain Be the First......
« on: December 15, 2023, 04:43:28 PM »
And you have a problem with that?  This is still pilot"spin", isn't it?  Eliminate personal opinion and we might as well shut this site down.
Personal opinion is fine. But when there are sources that attempt to eke out objective data I'll grant them greater priority than someone's personal opinion. Selection bias may occur, your mileage may vary. This post void where prohibited by law.

22
Spin Zone / Some people did something
« on: December 07, 2023, 07:56:20 PM »
82 years ago on this date.

23
Instead of telling me what I believe, why don't you tell me where you thing I am wrong.
Your post has the implicit assumption that 40% of Republicans and 100% of independents and 90% of Democrats will vote for Biden in the general election, not just the primaries. My point is that you made some inadvertent hidden assumptions about the votes that don't go to Trump.  Some unknown percentage of D, R and I voters are going to sit out the presidential election. You didn't give any estimates for those for both candidates, so your math was incomplete.

24
He has huge support from his supporters.

https://www.newsnationnow.com/politics/poll-largest-percentage-americans-independents/

From the above article:
45% voters identify as R or lean R. (This includes those that identify as R PLUS the Independents that lean R)
44% identify as D or lean D.   (This includes those that identify as D PLUS the Independents that lean D)



Assume Trump gets 60% of the first group and (a generous) 10% of the second group:

 (0.6*0.45) + (0.1*0.44)
=.27+0.4
=.31 or 31% of the general electorate.

Even if he gets 90% of the first group, that is still only about 41% of the total.

I'll be happy if you can show me where I am wrong?  Do you think he will get more than 10% of the liberal vote?
(It would take 90% of Rs and about 25% of Ds).  Can he get that?

Yeah, I know; "but none of the other Rs can either.
The only wild card that I can see is if there is a legitimate 3rd party candidate.
Now do the math for Biden. This should, hopefully, expose some dubious assumptions you relied upon.

25
Spin Zone / Remy: Moving to South Dakota
« on: December 01, 2023, 04:01:40 PM »
The state we retired to got some musical attention from Reason.com:

https://reason.com/video/2023/12/01/remy-moving-to-south-dakota/


26
Spin Zone / Re: Happy Thanksgiving!
« on: November 24, 2023, 03:21:52 PM »
The pie is a BIG problem. Traditionally when I cooked for the family I always made three pies. Pumpkin, mincemeat, and tart cherry.  There is no way to choose only one. We have to have all three or it won’t be right. The trouble is we are on a low carb diet and no way we can eat three pies between us. I don’t know what to do.
I can give you our mailing address....

27
Spin Zone / Re: 2024 Presidential "Election"
« on: November 23, 2023, 06:31:53 PM »
is that the holiday version of "bless your heart"?
No. Though I understand how it could be taken that way. I meant it literally. I have no issues with Number7's character - straight and trustworthy. Issues we can, ahem, differ on. He has his way of debating and I have mine. So why not wish him a happy thanksgiving since he wished an unqualified one for everyone else.

28
Spin Zone / Re: Dazed and Confused
« on: November 08, 2023, 09:12:56 PM »
One other note: I read an article this summer about the Feds starting their own real-time payment system to replace ACH transfers. It would shorten the transfer time from a day or two to basically instantaneous. Had to search for it again because I couldn't recall its name: FedNow.

They've been rolling it out since this summer with banks and other financial institutes. If your bank recently signed on then that would explain why the recent deposit cleared so much sooner than normal.

FedNow info:
https://www.stlouisfed.org/open-vault/2023/october/five-things-about-fednow
https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/banking/fednow

29
Spin Zone / Re: Surviving Obama's Third Term
« on: November 07, 2023, 05:39:23 PM »
I take offense to your disparaging drunken sailors.
I couldn't decide which was better, so I included both images.  The Reagan quote appears in dozens of images all with the same apparent flaw where I think the word "government" is probably supposed to be in parenthesis.


30
Spin Zone / Re: Now after bird names
« on: November 03, 2023, 12:44:33 PM »
I tawt I taw a social warrior puddy tat.


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