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Messages - PeterNSteinmetz

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76
Spin Zone / Re: Why I’m not getting the vaccine
« on: October 05, 2021, 02:21:43 PM »
I don’t personally think there is any justification given our current knowledge for vaccine mandates. This should be an individual decision as the risk / benefit analysis is close for many people and there is substantial uncertainty.

77
Pilot Zone / Armed protests against the TSA
« on: October 05, 2021, 08:33:36 AM »
Since a number of posters seem to be interested in my 2014 protest against the TSA at the Phoenix Sky Harbor airport, I will post a few responses and links here. (I tend to think of it as old news).

Firstly, let's clear up some facts. This was a deliberate political protest against the TSA constantly harassing innocent travelers in which I carried an AR-15 semi-automatic rifle directly in front of the TSA security line which is indicated on the floor. The rifle was carefully and appropriately handled at all times and was never pointed at anyone. Indeed, the case for that allegation was so weak that no charges were ever even brought. Furthermore, my arrest record was subsequently cleared by court in what is known as "declaration of innocence", which is rather rare in Arizona.

My reasons for doing so are more fully explained in my op-ed piece on the subject at https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/2014/11/22/open-carry-sky-harbor-airport/19344603/

Several interesting aspects of what happened at the airport. It took the police about 20-30 mins to find a person walking around with an openly carried AR-15. Most people didn't even notice. Prior to arresting me, the police were looking for some cause for arrest and literally said "go ask those women over there if they would be willing to be a victim".

It was certainly a controversial thing to do, as protests often are, and frankly generated more publicity than I anticipated.

Since this forum tends to focus a bit more on politics I will make a few comments though tend to confine my interests here to aviation related politics. (I suppose the TSA qualifies.)

I am an ultra-libertarian and regard basically everything being done by the TSA as an intrusion on citizens rights. I am also a strong advocate for our second amendment rights. Sadly of course I think our civil liberties have been even further eroded since 2014.

As to a few of the posts here. To post a link to the arrest without noting the subsequent clearing of the arrest record is arguably libelous. To ignore the substantial coverage of the political aspects, such as our nearly immediate press conference and my op-ed, appears to be misleading at best and mostly an attempt at a personal attack.


78
Because so many people who get covid have a mild case and recover without any treatment, I would think you would need to have a huge number of subjects to figure out if a drug prevents a mild case from becoming severe.
Yes, this is exactly the issue. The testing here has followed pretty much the standard course. First a treatment is tried in those who really need it, given the possible risks. If that fails to find a significant effect, one then moves on to the less ill or preventative studies. Since these are expensive and time-consuming, these are often not done unless there are other good reasons to think a proposed treatment may work.

Most proposed medical treatments follow a course that goes something like this: Looks good in theory or based on some anecdotal observations. Tried out in some open label uncontrolled trials. These often look promising. Then tried in randomized controlled trials. Fail these as the apparent effect in open label trials was due to placebo or some other uncontrolled variable. This is how it goes for the majority of possible treatments. Nothing unusual about that.

79
Spin Zone / Why I’m not getting the vaccine
« on: October 03, 2021, 08:48:41 PM »
Low rates of occurrence.  It’s not a new thing and it would be weird to not see it.

Yet another chicken little story manipulating the emotional.
Sadly it has become a political issue and objectivity has been lost.

Governments attempting to mandate various interventions and treatments has raised the normal level of uncertainty in scientific knowledge into a matter of considerable importance to everyday people. And frankly, experience during this pandemic has taught me that the vast majority of citizens lack the training to be able to understand things like conditional probability, Bayes theorem, or even to get fractions versus percentages correct.

Aside from that, the typical and well documented human cognitive distortions regarding low probability events are at play.

In normal life, none of this should be a big issue because the average person relies on their chosen experts to help them interpret these more esoteric subjects. But once the government starts coercing people with mandates, it now becomes everyone’s problem.

80
Spin Zone / Re: Why I’m not getting the vaccine
« on: October 03, 2021, 04:59:30 PM »

BTW, Thrombotic Thrombocytopenia was primarily observed with the Astrazeneca vaccine, which is not approved in the US.  The path seems to be a pre-existing condition, which in combination with a ramped up immune system, causes blood to start clotting.  At extreme levels, it induces anemia as too many RBCs become part of clots.  That's in addition to the stroke risks. 

Yes, the rate of that adverse event was estimated to be about 2-4 per million.

And a preprint by an Oxford group suggests that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines may have a similar rate. https://osf.io/a9jdq/

This rate of an adverse side effect is hard to detect and also very hard for the average person to reason accurately about.

81
Spin Zone / Vaccine Related Injuries Far More Widespread Than Reported
« on: October 02, 2021, 06:32:10 PM »
Agreed, given the limited danger presented by COVID-19 to the majority of the population as well as the limited efficacy of the vaccines and uncertain side effect profiles, attempting to coerce people into taking them is completely immoral and unjustified by any rational assessment of the cost benefit ratio.

82
Pilot Zone / Hopefully will get rid of the LODAs
« on: October 02, 2021, 12:25:21 PM »
Good to see Congress doing something about this bad FAA interpretation. Now on to the Senate passage.

https://www.aopa.org/news-and-media/all-news/2021/september/24/house-passes-amendment-to-reverse-faa-flight-training-policy

84
Pilot Zone / Re: SW PilotSpin fly-in brunch - Saturday October 23, 2021
« on: September 24, 2021, 06:54:46 AM »
Normally these in AZ have between 6-12 people. Fun size.

85
Pilot Zone / SW PilotSpin fly-in brunch - Saturday October 23, 2021
« on: September 23, 2021, 10:02:56 AM »
We will have a fly-in brunch at Susie's Skyway Restaurant in Prescott AZ (KPRC). Arrivals starting around 10 AM. Transient parking is at Legends Aviation on the SW side of the field. A shuttle to Susie's is available. Fuel is available both there at the FBO from the truck and for a reduced price from the self-serve pumps on the NW side of the runways. Nearby Cottonwood (P52) usually has some of the best fuel prices.

86
Spin Zone / Re: Joke Thread: Post 'em if ya got 'em
« on: September 21, 2021, 02:08:28 PM »
Grilled chicken

87
Spin Zone / Re: Referencing PilotSpin is not permitted
« on: September 18, 2021, 08:31:46 AM »
I don’t really consider such people liberals anymore. There is nothing classically liberal about such behavior.

88
Spin Zone / Re: TSA doubles mask fines
« on: September 18, 2021, 08:25:18 AM »
As I often point out (but it gets me accused of trolling on PoA) a peer-reviewed review of the randomized clinical trials of the effect of the general public wearing cloth masks to prevent the spread of influenza like illnesses (Jefferson et al 2020) found that of 14 such trials none, that is 0 of 14, showed a statistically significant effect. They concluded that probably such mask usage provided little to no protection.

Bundgaard et al, the large Danish study which was concluded last year also failed to find a significant effect.

So while it sure seems like they should work based on intuition and laboratory studies say they should, the randomized trials show they don’t actually help much, if at all. This is a rather common result with proposed medical treatments.

89
Pilot Zone / The Last Fighter Pilot of WWII with video
« on: September 16, 2021, 08:55:08 PM »
 “Take five minutes to watch this magnificent talk --Listen carefully to what Captain Jerry Yellin, the pilot of the last mission of WWII, says and how he says it on his visit to Iwo Jima.

You’ll enjoy every second of it.

How many of the few surviving WWII veterans kept themselves and their uniform in such good condition for over 70 years and can still proudly wear it?

Notice his superb and articulatedelivery, no teleprompter, no script -- just a 91-year-old fighter pilot representing the greatest generation at home and abroad who won WWII.

He has some surprises and a great take on the philosophy of life.

Enjoy !”

https://www.dvidshub.net/video/395572/jerry-yellin-world-war-ii-veteran-interview

90
Spin Zone / Re: Why I’m not getting the vaccine
« on: September 16, 2021, 02:28:35 PM »
I often say that modern politicians are literally just pissing away our legacy of freedom which was so hard won. (pardon the French)

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