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Messages - PeterNSteinmetz

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61
Spin Zone / Number 5 mode again
« on: February 18, 2024, 08:26:19 PM »
I don’t know you at all on a personal level, so take what I am about to type at face value.

Number 5 - "You're not one to talk but keep beating the drum."

Lacking an ego, your id is showing again. You really should work more on your amazing discovery of a brainless mind. Sounds like it could win you a Nobel prize.

62
does it really matter if the unlawful changes are considered fraud?

They are UNLAWFUL.
Well I think it does in terms of accuracy if one is going to claim something was fraud, rather than say, claiming it was unlawful actions by politicians.

Also these have rather different implications in terms of possible solutions to the problem.

If the problem is mostly politicians and bureaucrats making unlawful changes, no amount of cracking down on fraudulent ballots will help.

63
General meaning or not, changing election rules in an unlawful manner is not within the law.  If the state constitution says that all changes to election rules must go through the state legislature, then that's it. No amount of "well meaning for the public good" can change that.  The rule changes were unlawful.  Therefore all votes cast outside the law are null and void.

Certainly things done outside the law are unlawful, tautologically.

But do you consider those unlawful changes a form of “fraud”?

64
I believe that there was election fraud, but whether or not it was enough to sway the election I don't know.  However, states violating election law based on their secretaries of state's opinions on "safety during a pandemic" DID affect the election.  Democrat groups took advantage of the slack laws and, perhaps as allowed at the time, flooded the system and gave it to FJB.  That was by far the biggest factor in 2020.
I agree on that. I just don’t consider doing something within the law to be fraud in the general meaning of the term.

It also doesn’t seem like “stealing” the election in the sense it is generally meant. But I suppose could be considered theft like taxation is extortion.

No doubt the politicians used every excuse to increase their power and enrich themselves, as they almost always do.

Plus “public health” officials saw this as their big chance to “do something” and “help”.

65
But I don't know what to believe.  I waited with bated breath several times as some group or other was going to present hard evidence, only to be disappointed with a bunch of coincidences and suppositions.

Yes, there has been a real lack of quality analysis. I hope someone will be able to comment on the quality of the Heritage Institute study. Having been disappointed by many prior “revelations” I am not inclined to invest the time unless someone who has read it chimes in.

66
What is the basis for your claim wrt the design intent?
Honestly I don’t remember as it was probably back in high school. I do not mean to imply that is it’s only design criterion.

67
Popular vote is meaningless. Wow. To use that as an indicator of anything is counterproductive and considering many were fraudulent, even more misleading.
Certainly not determinative of who wins in the US. It does however indicate popular sentiment. I think it very unlikely that there were 7 million fraudulent votes, though I can imagine the sort of evidence that would be persuasive.

The electoral college was designed to push ambiguous outcomes one direction or the other so I can also imagine smaller amounts of fraud having an effect there, though have not seen convincing evidence of it.

That is why I ask, has anyone read the Heartland Institute report who could say it looks good and worth investigating further?

What could be going on with the electoral college is something like this. There are errors in any human process including elections. In a scientific experiment we consider 5% a reasonable error rate and the recommendation for voting is on the order of  2%. What that then means is that if you could repeat the election multiple times, that you could get differences of 2% with a fair frequency.

If the margin between two candidates is on the same order, then you will get different outcomes each time you repeat the election.

In that scenario, if some group commits fraud which amounts to 0.1 percent and it tips in one direction or the other, is it accurate to say that their fraud “caused” the outcome and was a “steal” of the election?

I would submit not in the normal sense of the word which implies in the average person’s mind a much higher causal contribution to the outcome, not a 5% shift in the probability.

The average person does not think in terms of statistical contributions to causality, but rather in terms of all or nothing causation. That is how our brains evolved.

68
That is a good question of whether a much smaller number of fraudulent votes could have affected the electoral college outcome is a good one.

I believe the Heartland Institute study mentioned in this other thread http://www.pilotspin.com/index.php?topic=7426.0 tried to address that. Has anyone actually read that study and thinks it is worth looking more carefully at?

69
  Get ready this fall to see this again, except this time it will be the dems shouting stolen election.  They are going to use everything the republicans used in 2020, except this time the judges will listen and the lawsuits will happen.   This will tie up election certifications and eventually tip the election to the twelfth amendment and congress.

I would agree that somehow the democrats bamboozled the American public into voting for their candidate, a demented old political crook, for President in 2020.

I hope the American public has learned something and won't make that mistake again.

70
    Add to the list the states that allowed state SoS and judges to rewrite election allows outside of the legislative to allow mass mail in voting with no signature verification, and no cutoff dates.

I think these changes likely had an affect on the outcome overall as the mail-in voters are much more leftist.

I don't consider that outright fraud, which usually means things like fake ballots for dead people, duplicate ballots, etc. Do you count that as fraud?

Do you consider it a form of "stealing" the election?
Or rather a form of cheating?

I consider it dirty politics as usual.

71
In any case I stand by my original comment of "oh dear". Whether one thinks that election was "stolen" or not, it certainly is not a good thing when an organization called "True the Vote", which has made a big stink about this, can't produce the evidence when requested by the judge.

72
Yes. A complete redo of the 2020 election as soon as possible, at the time, using only paper ballots, requiring ID, and one-day counting would have been ideal but of course doesn’t exist. It could still be done, but has not been and here we are facing another election with most of the cheat mechanisms still in place.

Well, being able to name something that is at least theoretically possible means that is not a logically non-falsifiable belief. That means it is then possible to begin to consider issues like how to objectively consider the totality of the evidence and what the evidence is. Key questions for a specific proposition are what standard of evidence should be used to support the claim and how the different types of evidence are weighed. An important item to note is that it is possible for a belief to be effectively non-falsifiable if one won't consider any evidence that can be practically obtained or if one non-objectively weighs evidence grossly disproportionately.

So I started to consider what the evidence was with the claim that the 2020 presidential election was stolen and at first thought it might be one of those cases where things are so close that one can't even with all the evidence theoretically know a conclusion to say greater than 95% certainty.

So the first thing I went to look for was the actual popular vote counts as reported. It seems like Joe Biden won by over 7M votes, or 5.1%. (https://www.cookpolitical.com/2020-national-popular-vote-tracker). So it really isn't a case of an inherent level of statistical uncertainty causing the confusion here. Instead one has to find evidence for some process that would result in over 7M false votes.

Quote
I could be convinced the 2020 election was not stolen if every deposition, testimonial, video, election official statement, voting machine data and ballot were unearthed and examined with extreme focus and with bipartisan observers documenting each finding.

You do know that pretty close to the last item mentioned, the ballot examinations, was performed in Maricopa County? While that did uncover evidence of troublesome counting, admission of ballots, etc. it failed to show any good evidence that the results on the improper ballots were so biased that including them or excluding them would significantly impact the choice of electors in AZ. This is actually evidence which suggests that whatever fraud may have present did not affect the outcome of the election. That is just one piece of evidence of course.

73
Spin Zone / Under oath True the Vote claims to have no evidence in GA case
« on: February 15, 2024, 07:21:12 AM »
You use that phrase as if it somehow implies that a plurality of anecdotal evidence is not valid data. But it is. The election was stolen. Rush is correct in her observations. I watched many testimonies and read many of the affidavits that came out right after the election. Most quickly were suppressed. The speed with which AG Barr insisted no evidence of cheating was found was a giant tell. He didn’t even look, therefore he didn’t find. The whole situation we are in is a perfect illustration of the old fable of the emperor with no clothes. Anyone insisting Biden got 81 million votes and won the election is living in a fantasy.
Actually no, I use that phrase to mean that the belief is non-falsifiable for that person. In the this case, by Rush’s own admission. That means it is pointless to discuss further with that person because here is no evidence that exists which would ever falsify the belief. And I think it is a good thing when a person who has such beliefs is up front about it. It reduces waste of time and keeps the discussion more polite.

Let me ask Becky if you can name any evidence, which could exist in principle, which would persuade you that the amount of fraud which existed in the 2020 presidential election did not affect the outcome?

74
Well Rush, at least you are open about your non-falsifiable belief!

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