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Messages - PeterNSteinmetz

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226
Spin Zone / Re: Can Trump win the general election?
« on: August 17, 2023, 01:28:49 PM »
lame dodge.
For example, have you actual proof that I'm not open to being shown how the mail-in ballots have integrity?

Yes, I think that many of your prior postings on the subject strongly indicate the beliefs are non-falsifiable. And the inability or unwillingness to demonstrate how to falsify them sort of makes it a very reasonable conclusion. Until shown otherwise by demonstrating how they would be falsified.

227
Spin Zone / Re: Can Trump win the general election?
« on: August 17, 2023, 01:25:59 PM »
I wasn’t even counting what they did in 2000 Mules.  I’m still trying to figure out what throwing an orange up in the air has to do with any of this.

Really. I am actually surprised. But if you want to explore further see https://reasonandmeaning.com/2020/11/26/why-non-falsifiable-beliefs-are-absurd/ .

Since you avoid the question I will assume your beliefs on this are non-falsifiable until demonstrated otherwise.

228
Spin Zone / Can Trump win the general election?
« on: August 17, 2023, 12:09:30 PM »
why does it devolve to only "oordinated systematic fraud"?
Bob IIRC you have non-falsifiable beliefs about this subject. So I will just politely acknowledge those are your beliefs and won’t be discussing them further with you. Unless you want to demonstrate your beliefs are falsifiable of course. Cheers, Peter

ETA: but what do you think of Trump’s chances of winning the general election?

229
Spin Zone / Re: Can Trump win the general election?
« on: August 17, 2023, 11:45:14 AM »
If you did that deep dive then it’s very unlikely you still think Biden legitimately won.
Have to disagree. For example, when we last looked into the allegations of "coordinated systematic fraud" in the film 2000 Mules, the analysis is quite faulty.

Perhaps you have non-falsifiable beliefs about this. What sort of evidence would it take to persuade you of the truth of the assertion: the fraud that existed in the 2020 Presidential election was not sufficient to affect the outcome?

Is there any that could possibly exist? If so, what would do it for you?

Personally I think the declared winning margin was well within the normal error rate of this type of process. The person who "won" was essentially random.

230
Spin Zone / Re: Can Trump win the general election?
« on: August 17, 2023, 10:16:08 AM »
I should also note, though this is somewhat off topic, that I understand why a large number of people have a strong inclination to think the election was "stolen". It is far easier to think that is the case and that voting will get us out of this mess than to face what I think is the sad reality.

We likely won't get out of this mess by voting. Both factions of the uniparty want to split the electorate just about 50/50 and keep them constantly bickering and fighting and voting for one or the other faction. This keeps them in power. And also tends to hide the fact that they are both rapidly stripping away our liberties with statist interventions.

But it is much more comfortable and easy to think it will be fixed by voting. Voting is a fairly safe and easy thing to do. I wished it would work, but I doubt it.

231
Spin Zone / Re: Can Trump win the general election?
« on: August 17, 2023, 10:10:03 AM »
I just looked it up and about 1/3 of the US believe that election fraud was a significant factor. https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/meetthepressblog/almost-third-americans-still-believe-2020-election-result-was-fraudule-rcna90145

This is higher than I would have expected but makes things a bit more complicated for Trump. I tend to agree with Rush however that it is likely best from the point of view of gaining votes to not hammer on it.

And Becky, I will note that saying a belief is naive is just applying a label and doesn't really say much about the fact of it. Also that since a belief itself cannot be naive, it borders on making an assumption about the speakers state of mind. I understand that is your strong belief though. I guess we haven't tested whether that is falsifiable.


232
Spin Zone / Re: Can Trump win the general election?
« on: August 17, 2023, 08:48:02 AM »
Most people don’t face guns or abortions on a daily basis but they do face high food and gas prices and wages that don’t keep up. 60% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck and using credit cards to buy groceries. They face this all day long every day and that is what Trump needs to leverage. He needs to focus on energy specifically because fuel costs are a major underlying cause of high prices.  He needs to campaign on stopping the flow of dollars to Ukraine as another cause because we are printing money we don’t have, and he maybe needs to address the pandemic’s role in hurting the economy.   Just say the pandemic hurt the economy but it would have been worse if I hadn’t gotten it so good by 2019.

Very true. The other thing I suspect Trump should stay absolutely away from is "the 2020 election was stolen from me". That is related to many of his indictments and frankly most people don't think fraud was a significant factor in the outcome and that it makes him look like a sore loser. I don't see any upside for him because while this riles up his base, they are going to stand behind him anyway. Unfortunately, he doesn't seem to be able to stay away from that subject. I imagine it really bothers his ego and he just can't help himself.

233
Spin Zone / Re: Non-falsifiable beliefs in politics and on social media.
« on: August 16, 2023, 09:08:15 PM »
Could it also include indifference to the question?

Yes, I think in the sense of the Greek roots, if you do not assert that an entity called “god” exists, then you are not a believer and are an atheist.

If asked about this, I always ask what exactly do you mean by the term “god”? I find it is usually not a well defined concept and thus not really a properly formed question.

234
Spin Zone / Can Trump win the general election?
« on: August 16, 2023, 08:48:30 PM »
What do people here think of Trump’s prospects in the general election?

Apparently the polling on this has him and Biden in a dead heat in the general election. Certainly he has his very strong base. But it strikes me that is not enough in itself to win in the general.

If he tacks toward the middle as the election closes in, it seems he won’t lose his base. But that may just bring us back to a repeat of 2020. This is of course the general strategy.

Could another strategy be to instead tack further right and in a libertarian way? It is often said that the far right and far left sort of converge when it comes to many freedom issues. I know he is a populist nationalist, but I wonder if that might work?

235
Spin Zone / Re: The latest Trump indictment
« on: August 16, 2023, 08:39:54 PM »
The other thing to remember about mere indictments is the old joke - “a prosecutor can get a grand jury to indict a ham sandwich”.

236
Spin Zone / Re: Non-falsifiable beliefs in politics and on social media.
« on: August 16, 2023, 08:36:20 PM »
What's your point Peter? Our belief that the Democrats along with the Global Elite, including China are purposefully transforming this country to a third world shithole is false?
I think the main point was not sufficiently clear somehow. Whether a belief is falsifiable or not is an independent property from whether the belief is true or false.

237
Spin Zone / Re: The latest Trump indictment
« on: August 16, 2023, 08:33:37 PM »
I’ve read it.  It’s garbage, and an embarrassment to the legal profession.  In normal times the prosecutor would lose her job over something like this. 

The voting machine and records, the way the prosecutor has presented it, have no basis in reality. 

Also, the timing of this is suspect.  If this was such a concern, and criminal as the prosecutor alleges, why did she wait 3 years to bring it?
Interesting.  Certainly the other 3 did not impress me.

I am rather convinced of the main thesis of “3 Felonies A Day”. If the prosecutor wants to get you, they likely can. I am frankly surprised Trump has so little they can go after him for.

238
Spin Zone / The latest Trump indictment
« on: August 16, 2023, 08:11:14 PM »
Has anyone here fully read the latest Trump indictment? If so, what is your impression?

The little snippets I have seen do not impress me overall; however, the business of illegally accessing voting machines and records seems like it could amount to something.

239
Spin Zone / Non-falsifiable beliefs in politics and on social media.
« on: August 16, 2023, 07:58:29 PM »
Is the belief that God exists non-falsifiable, and the belief God doesn't exist also non-falsifiable?  I can't think of any way to prove one way or the other.  Belief in God requires faith. That's not the same thing as evidence. Belief that there is no God is basically just an opinion, with no way to prove you're correct.
I suspect you are basically correct on that as stated.


Theists often try and assert those are the only two alternatives or that the second position is atheism. And indeed the language has been changed to sort of force this false dichotomy. The common dictionary definition of atheism is that it is asserting a denial of the existence of god.


However, the original roots of the term point to another meaning. The roots mean non belief. In other words, one can simply not believe in whatever the word “god” is defined as, if anything at all.


Many people think that is agnostic. But that term normally means a statement of ignorance on the question, which is not quite the same thing.

240
Spin Zone / Re: Non-falsifiable beliefs in politics and on social media.
« on: August 16, 2023, 07:51:46 PM »
a wonderful irony is when someone dismisses another's position by claiming the other is suffering from having a non-falsiiable belief...
It is easy to show your belief is falsifiable Bob if it is.

I don’t think it is ironic at all Bob. It is quite appropriate to dismiss people’s non-falsifiable beliefs. What on earth could be the point of discussing them? They are not subject to rational discussion.

Here is where such a thing could be ironic. If someone stated that another’s belief was non-falsifiable, but could not be persuaded that it was not even after presentation of the sort of evidence which would falsify the original beliefs.

But normally people with non-falsifiable beliefs are very emotionally threatened by this idea and just can’t admit it.

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