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Messages - bflynn

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4711
Spin Zone / Re: Electoral votes
« on: April 28, 2016, 11:03:37 AM »
The WH is lost to the GOP.  Neither Cruz nor Trump has the proverbial snowball's chance in hell. 

So a snowball has a 4% chance in hell?  That's all it needs to shift.  If the battleground states shift just 4% to the right then either Cruz or Trump win.  I think Cruz has the better chance of doing that than Trump.

I didn't mention, but Kasich is a landslide winner right now.  Hillary would have to move about 15% to the left in order to beat Kasich.

It's like they're running a 1 mile race, except everyone isn't going to run the same distance.  Trump will start from the 1.5 mile mark, Cruz will start at the 1.25 mile mark and Kasich will run a half mile.  Who do you want to bet on?

I like Cruz, but I would take Kasich.

4712
Spin Zone / Re: Is the 14th Amendment a threat to the Bill of Rights?
« on: April 28, 2016, 10:57:06 AM »
Arguing that religious beliefs trump is a losing argument. 

So if a State makes a law outlawing church buildings, religion is SOL?  You really don't think through the consequences of what you say.  Up your game.

If a government can justify controlling anything about religion then it can justify controlling everything.

Additionally, your logic is invalid by legal precedence.  The highest law is the Constitution, then federal law, then State law.  Federal vs State gets a little complicated because the federal government should (is supposed to) be limited in topics addressed in the Constitution that it may make laws on.  Anything not mentioned is reserved for the States.  But both are inferior to the Constitution.  So any State law that conflicts with a Constitutional protection automatically loses because States cannot change what the Constitutional agreement is.

Lawyers get paid a lot of money to figure out ways around these things and one of the favorites is to claim equal protection via the 14th Amendment, thus raising the State Law, passed by State legislatures to Constitutional status.  Now they claim a conflict between the 1st Amendment and 14th Amendment and gosh, we'll just have to tell the religious people to stand aside.

That is how it happens.  It would be humorous if it were not so serious and so flawed.  Every time it happens, the religious person is denied their equal protection but they just don't care.  From your message saying "Missy", I take it that you do not care either that the State of Washington is punishing the Klein's religious beliefs.  But note that despite excessive fines and punishments, they have not been able to change them.  Was it Oregon or Colorado where the judge actually said that claiming first Amendment protection of religion could not be used as a defense?  Think about that, a judge actually said that they could not follow their religious conviction.

The slaves are choosing to be whipped and it's not having any impact.  Guess the next step is to shoot them in the head, right?  Isn't that what you do with a slave that refuses to behave?

4713
Spin Zone / Re: Are you shopping at Target?
« on: April 27, 2016, 05:43:07 PM »
That's a bit aggressive in terms of impact.


If Target loses, say $1b in revenue, that doesn't translate to $1b in the bottom line.  They will have a corresponding drop in the Cost-of-Goods-Sold line.  I've not looked at their financials in any detail, but the critical factor would be what their gross margin is, and in retail, that tends to be quite thin.

That's fair.  I was assuming that they would keep everything else the same, which of course they won't.  In addition to the COGS impact, they will probably shift some other things around to try to play hide the pickle.

That's what I get for trying to do this off the top of my head.  Should know better that you have to actually sit down and build the model.

4714
Spin Zone / Re: Are you shopping at Target?
« on: April 27, 2016, 12:15:08 PM »
Heard something humorous just now - Target said in their statatement that they wanted to be inclusive.  They were so inclusive that now they're excluding 2 million customers in order to accommodate a few thousand for whom this was a problem.

4715
Spin Zone / Re: A Different Approach
« on: April 27, 2016, 12:13:35 PM »
I have no idea how many transgenders exist in the US.

Activist for the cause report 80,000 that have officially changed their legal gender and 5 times that many total.  I would expect, given their activist role and the difficult in counting these things that they're over reporting.  But by their own estimate about 300,000 people max.




4716
Spin Zone / Re: Are you shopping at Target?
« on: April 27, 2016, 12:01:58 PM »
They are losing customers over this though, and if it affects their bottom line, then heads will roll.

Let's do the math.  I've done this before but I think I messed it up.

The people signed on for the boycott is over 800,000 now and will almost certainly reach a million.  There might be another million who don't bother to sign up, but let's just say 1 million and be conservative.

If each of those people would have spent just $100/month at Target ($25/week) then the cost is 100 million per month or 800 million this year.  If it's only a million who are boycotting.  That could be as high as 2 billion.

That makes it extremely relevant to shareholders since the Net Income available to shareholders is only 3.32 billion with an Earnings per share of $5.32/share.  If it is 2 billion and all of that 2 billion falls to shareholders then the 1.32 Net Income generates just about $2.20/share EPS.  At the best.  If the 2 million people number is right, then Target swings from 5.32/share to about a $1.13 EPS loss.

I think the analysis of what the boycott could do hasn't gotten around wall street yet.  Those are pretty significant losses and a pretty steep price to pay for sticking your nose into politics.

4717
Spin Zone / Re: Electoral votes
« on: April 27, 2016, 11:47:49 AM »
No because you could unwarily open up some portal to Hell, and allow demons to enter your home.  Be careful with that sh*t.  :)

That might be appropriate since from what I see around here, Trump has a snowball's chance in hell of winning North Carolina.

4718
Spin Zone / Electoral votes
« on: April 27, 2016, 09:50:09 AM »
Electoral votes are the only ones that will count.  You can play head to head games all day but in the end it will be electoral votes that determine who is president.

Let's face it - both Cruz and Trump are in trouble because Republicans are in trouble.  They are absolutely not adept at using the media and (I believe) have good ideas but haven't thought through how to connect those ideas with people to show them how their lives get better.  Hillary is a desperation vote for a lot of people because there's no alternative being presented.

This is one of the better sites I've see, although I think some of their polls might be lagging.
http://electiongraphs.com/2016ec/?Dem=Clinton&Rep=Cruz&Days=0&Format=spec

The bottom lines -

For nominee Cruz to win the presidency, he will have to win 7 key states:  Colorado, Iowa, Georgia and North Carolina which lean toward him already plus Wisconsin, Nevada and Ohio which lean toward Clinton.

For nominee Trump to win  the presidency, he will need to win 7 slightly different states:  Colorado, Georgia and Missouri which lean toward him plus Ohio, North Carolina, Florida and Iowa.

Which is more likely -

Cruz winning Wisconsin, Nevada and Ohio?
or
Trump winning Ohio, North Carolina, Florida and Iowa?


4719
Spin Zone / Re: Is the 14th Amendment a threat to the Bill of Rights?
« on: April 27, 2016, 08:42:28 AM »
You do realize that absent the 14th Amendment, the 1st Amendment does not apply to any actions of a state government, right?

I would agree they shouldn't but in terms of the modern legal status they do and have for the last 100 years.

https://www.quora.com/Why-does-the-First-Amendment-apply-to-state-and-local-laws

4720
Spin Zone / Re: Why Won't Mr. "Will of the People" Debate?
« on: April 27, 2016, 08:39:30 AM »
He's toast from a voter perspective.

Trump has no hope to beat Clinton.

Trump v Clinton - average is Clinton by 8.5%, 49/40
USA Today - Clinton + 11
GWU/Battleground - Clinton +3
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl - Clinton + 11
FOX News - Clinton + 7
CBS News - Clinton + 10
McClatchy/Marist - Clinton + 9


Cruz - average is Clinton by 3%, 46/43

Yes, both are behind.  The horses are in the backstretch and you get to place a last minute bet.  Do you want to bet on the horse that is 8 1/2 lengths back or the one that is 3 lengths back?

Clinton v Trump, Clinton has 49% of the vote.  How will Trump catch her?

4721
Spin Zone / Re: Is the 14th Amendment a threat to the Bill of Rights?
« on: April 27, 2016, 08:01:40 AM »
I honestly don't understand that you are on about.  Do you have an example?

Apparently not any that you would understand.  I've given several.

Here's yet another - courts take a state law outlawing discrimination against sexual discrimination, connect it to the 14th Amendment and then use it to override 1st amendment rights protecting the free exercise of religion.  Or, Cryer v Klein if you prefer.

4722
Spin Zone / Re: Is the 14th Amendment a threat to the Bill of Rights?
« on: April 26, 2016, 07:52:38 PM »
I am not sure where equal treatment of citizens under the law is a threat to the Constitution.

When equal treatment is confused with equal protection and is used to override Constitutionally protected rights.   

Basically the 14th can be used to elevate any law to Constitutional status and then the Constitution is broken.  Laws made by Congress or States are not the supreme law of the land but have been elevated over Constitutional protections via the 14th. 

When you can twist laws like this then it produces an unstable Republic and your own position is uncertain.  As soon as the opposition takes power, everything changes on you.  The "law" is no longer based on law but is based on the whims of those in power. 

Is that the kind of government you want?

4723
Quote
Donald J. Trump says the abstruse Republican delegate system distorts the will of the people.

Trump sounds like a whiny loser.  Is this how he would be as President?

4724
Spin Zone / Are you shopping at Target?
« on: April 26, 2016, 07:08:45 AM »
https://www.afa.net/action-alerts/sign-the-boycott-target-pledge/

As of Tuesday morning the total has reached almost 700,000 people who object to Target jumping into the bathroom fray.  Now that is just under 1% of the estimated 100 million people who shop at Target annually but there are estimates that so far Target's misjudgment has already cost them over 100 million dollars and that it could top a half billion for the year.

I was in the local store yesterday and had a shopping list.  I used the bathroom of my choice (that being the men's room) and proceeded to shop.

I could not find the first 4 items on my list
Florida oranges
No sugar added Klondike bars (any flavor)
Unfrosted strawberry pop tarts
A 21" round grill grate

Then soda was $5.96 / 12 pack of cans and I said forget it to the rest.  Never mind the bathroom controversy, I'm not shopping there anymore because they flat out don't have what I want to buy!  Walmart had everything on my list AND the soda was about 1/2 price.  I'll deal with the depressing store and the Wal-martians.



4725
Spin Zone / Re: A Different Approach
« on: April 26, 2016, 06:37:55 AM »
There is a meme going around showing a lady, Sarina, and a muscular man.  Apparently both had sex change operations in the past. The meme alleges that according to the new NC law the man would have to use the ladies room and the lady would have to use the men's room.  A FB friend of mine shared it so I immediately called him out on it and quoted the NC Law showing that their birth certificates would now show their new genders.  He and his friends didn't like that and immediately changed the subject and went on the attack.  I went to his wall this morning to try and find the meme and it would appear that he deleted the posts.

Do tell.

The awkward part isn't the people who pass for the opposite sex.  They will go into the bathroom, do their business and nobody will be the wiser.

There are three places that we run into trouble -
1) Transgender / crossdressers that don't pass.  These people stand out no matter what bathroom they use because THEY STAND OUT. 
2) No matter what your gender, you have no business exposing yourself in a place with a minor of the biologically opposite sex can see it.  That's illegal today but there are people who do it.
3) Perverts who want to use crossdressing as way to gain access to bathrooms of the opposite sex for a thrill.  In all the stories I've found of them, these are primarily men.

Ok, so let's address that.
1) no rules by anyone on public bathroom use.  Bathrooms exist for the purpose of public sanitation and let's not complicate it beyond that.
2) If you are transgender then you bear a heightened responsibility not to expose your genitalia to a minor of the other sex.  That's the law today and if you break it then you are guilty of corruption of a minor and you may wind up being forced to register as a sex offender the same way the flasher in the trench coat would.  Sorry, but heap it on the pile of burdens you have to bear.
3) Bathrooms exist for the purposes of public sanitation.  If you are caught using a public bathroom for sexual gratification then it is 1) A class ? misdemeanor for all parties if it is consensual or 2) a class ? felony if it involves an involuntary participant or a minor and you must register as a sex offender. 

Bathroom functions are private and for sanitation and as long as you keep it in that realm then we can all get along.

Probably makes way too much sense. 

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