The epidemic of COVID-19 is almost over in the USA. Even the recent mitigation measures and mask mandates will make no difference because if effective at all, they are not producing the intended result, which is clear from the infection rate slopes. The virus has reached a critical mass where the exposure is now everywhere we turn. Remember that around 90% of us will not be touched by this virus because of T cell mediated innate immunity, combined with a smaller percentage of adaptive immunity. In prior posts I attempted to establish that because the virus is so contagious that elimination or permanent control was useless and that any measures to mitigate early in the course of the pandemic has only delayed the ultimate outcome. And that can be seen in countries, once lauded such as Greece, Czech Republic and Germany where they are now battling truly surging infection rates as they attempt to open. What is that ultimate outcome? Again I turn to Sweden. It is over for them. Our clumsy efforts at mitigation places us more or less in the same camp with Sweden, except Sweden had no lockdowns and did not mandate them nor did they use masks. Except now because of our nearsighted leaders we are a little behind. We need to make up some pain which is what this recent "surge" is all about. Rather than allow for the natural course of events as did Sweden, we are now making up for the deficit. If you look at the mortality graph below you will see the difference.(you will have to click on the graph to see it entirely) The good news for the US is at current rates, we will be near the bottom of this second hill in about a month. It is hard to predict whether mitigation or lockdown extension will have any effect on this, but if it does, it will only prolong the course of events, not change them. It is clear from infection rates that we are on the downside as well, as you can see in the second graph. So overall we have good news. Mitigation was never a game plan because just like in a war one has to have a clear goal and mitigation was never a clear goal. There was never was an exit strategy. People still believe that if we contain the virus, we can cure the disease and get back to a normal life. That couldn't be further from the truth. If we use Sweden's stats as the gold standard of mortality rate of 0.055%, then we can expect about ~180,000 total deaths in the US. Think about that number compared to a total of 330 million residents. The shut downs that continue and the deaths and morbidity completely unrelated to the virus being caused as a result, not to mention the economic damage is mind boggling. If our leaders can't see this, then they are truly ignorant and fearful of taking any responsibility for outcomes. Shame on these cowards. The data is now front and center for all to see, all they need to do is look. The relative risk for people has always been so so low, and we have reacted and treated this as if the world were ending. Shameful.

Carny folk.  Small hands.